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Krugman Badly Reviewed
It will not surprise readers to know that I'd enjoy a good smash of Paul Krugman's book Conscience of a Liberal but historian David Kennedy's negative review in the NYtimes is more trash than smash. First, there is a bizarre attempt to argue that Krugman is not an economist because he is not laissez-faire!
And yet maybe Krugman is not really an economist — at least not according to the definition offered more than a century ago by Francis Amasa Walker, the first president of the American Economic Association, who wrote that laissez-faire “was not made the test of economic orthodoxy, merely. It was used to decide whether a man were an economist at all.”
Most modern economists continue to celebrate Walker’s orthodoxy, and behind it, the classical doctrines of Adam Smith, whose fabled “invisible hand” regularly works wonders of production, distribution, innovation and efficiency, provided it is kept free of the meddlesome “nanny state.” Against the constant threat of encroachment from that benighted quarter the free-market faithful are ever vigilant.
Admittedly, even though this view is nonsense it's nonsense that is repeated often enough so that an outsider could be forgiven for drinking the heterodox cool-aid. At this point I was willing to forgive.
Unfortunately, the rest of Kennedy's review has very little meat. If the best that historian Kennedy can say against Krugman's "factually shaky" history is that "Kansas, whatever its other crimes and misdemeanors, is not customarily regarded as the birthplace of Prohibition; the Voting Rights Act passed in 1965, not 1964." then maybe Krugman is on to something. (For the record, the first point is arguable the second point is a trivial error.)
Worse yet, Kennedy agrees with Krugman when Krugman is wrong. It's not true, for example, that Americans "have become markedly less [secure] in recent decades." Nor is it true that "A tidal wave of risk-shifting — from defined-benefit to defined-contribution retirement plans, and from employer-financed to individually-paid health care insurance, to cite but two examples — has set millions of American families anxiously adrift on a sea of uncertainty." (See e.g. Tyler here and here).
I don't understand the divisions within the liberal fold which explain Kennedy's review (he is no right-winger) but I know something is up when Tyler says "The Conscience of a Liberal is um...not that polemic. It's not that shrill." While liberal Kennedy says "Like the rants of Rush Limbaugh or the films of Michael Moore, Krugman’s shrill polemic may hearten the faithful, but it will do little to persuade the unconvinced or to advance the national discussion of the important issues it addresses."
My ultimate response to Kennedy's review? I bought the book.
Addendum: Brad DeLong points out that Kennedy blows the Walker quote as well. Walker, in 1889!, was pointing out that economists were not doctrinaire proponents of laissez-faire.
Posted by Alex Tabarrok on October 21, 2007 at 12:23 PM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
Krugman somehow decided to mention Kansas and Prohibition. Why isn’t clear, at least to me. Does anyone know?
Kennedy then reviews the book and offers the following, quite correct, statement
“Kansas, whatever its other crimes and misdemeanors, is not customarily regarded as the birthplace of Prohibition”
For better or worse, Kennedy’s statement is accurate. Typing prohibition and history in Google turns up any number of histories of Prohibition in the United States. I didn’t find any that treated Kansas as the keystone state of the movement. Presumably Krugman could have done the same thing and found the same information.
Unfortunately, Krugman make his position worse by referencing two factoids. First, that Kansas was the first state to include Prohibition in its state constitution. Second, that Carrie Nation attacked saloons in Kansas.
Unfortunately, both of the (valid) data points diminish Krugman’s argument. The Oregon territory implemented Prohibition 38 years before Kansas. Maine was only 34 years ahead. Any number of other states implemented (or tried to) Prohibition before the Civil War. The fact that Kansas amended its constitution decades later just doesn’t make it “the birthplace of Prohibition”.
The reference to Carrie Nation also undermines Krugman’s argument. Carrie Nation was protesting the failure of Kansas to enforce its Prohibition laws. Her first attack on a saloon was in 1900, 19th years after the constitutional amendment. Once again, saloon attacks 57 years after the first Prohibition laws just don’t support a claim about “the birthplace of Prohibition”.
Of course, Carrie Nation was never more than a local leader of the WCTU. The actual history of the WCTU further undermines Krugman’s thesis. The WCTU was founded in 1874 in Cleveland, Ohio. The WCTU website offers the following capsule history
“In many towns in Ohio and New York in the fall of 1873 women concerned about the destructive power of alcohol met in churches to pray and then marched to the saloons to ask the owners to close their establishments. They met with success but it was only temporary so by the next summer the women concluded that they must become organized nationally. This led to the founding of the National Woman's Christian Temperance Union - the oldest continuing non-sectarian woman's organization in the world.”
No mention of Kansas. The history of the Prohibition party is also revealing. It was founded in 1869 in Chicago and held its next convention in Ohio. The subsequent history of the party reveals no special connection to Kansas. The same holds for the Anti-Saloon league founded in Oberlin, Ohio in 1893.
I did find one interesting counterpoint. In 1887, Prohibition Party member Susanna M. Salter of Argonia, Kansas, became the first female mayor in the United States.
If Krugman had connected Prohibition and Ohio he might have been able to make his case. However, with Kansas he struck out.
So let’s summarize here. Krugman chooses (for unknown reasons) to obsess over the 19th century history of Kansas and Prohibition. Kennedy rightfully corrects Krugman. Rather than honorably backing off, Krugman digs a deeper hole with factoids that only worsen his case.
However, the real point is why is Krugman mentioned Kansas and Prohibition in the first place? Does anyone kinow?
Posted by: WM123 at Oct 21, 2007 1:21:09 PM
[ ...It's not true, for example, that Americans "have become markedly less [secure] in recent decades." Nor is it true that "A tidal wave of risk-shifting — from defined-benefit to defined-contribution retirement plans, and from employer-financed to individually-paid health care insurance, to cite but two examples — has set millions of American families anxiously adrift on a sea of uncertainty." ]
That's true by definition, isn't it? Or are you parsing "tidal wave" since there weren't many companies that could afford a defined benefit plan in the first place? The whole point of the demise of defined benefit plans was to shift cost off the employer onto the employee, letting the employee bear the uncertainty. I don't understand how that is not true. Are 11% stock market returns built into some models somewhere that employees haven't been able to exploit?
Posted by: ideogenetic at Oct 21, 2007 1:53:44 PM
"First, there is a bizarre attempt to argue that Krugman is not an economist because he is not laissez-faire!"
I think this is a mis-reading, though it seems to be a common one. Kennedy's target is not Krugman, but a caricature of "orthodox" economics. He says *"maybe"* "Krugman is not really an economist" because is not one of the "free-market faithful."
Kennedy (thinks he) is merely providing NYTBR readers with background info in the first few paragraphs. It isn't until he says "[Krugman's historical narrative] is as factually shaky as it is narratively simplified" that the review proper begins.
Posted by: anon/portly at Oct 21, 2007 1:57:07 PM
At least one quote from the article makes Krugman sound a bit dodgy: “There hasn’t been any corresponding radicalization of the Democratic Party, so the right-wing takeover of the G.O.P. is the underlying cause of today’s bitter partisanship.”
Perhaps. But aren't there well-known organizations influential on the DP, like MoveOn and Daily Kos, that push a fairly radical agenda?
Posted by: Tom at Oct 21, 2007 3:49:13 PM
Whether you agree with Krugman's politics or not, no one in the field would deny that Krugman is a very good economist. His work in labor and regional economics is fascinating, and he is evidently very intelligent. I'm not sure if he will win a Nobel award in the next 30 years, but if he doesn't it is only because of the areas he chose to study. It is not for lack of talent.
Posted by: Stan at Oct 21, 2007 5:11:31 PM
Tom
MoveOn was formed when the Republicans impeached Clinton on a party line vote in the house without any hope of conviction in the Senate, or even any support in the country outside the their own base. The base of the the Democratic party and Moveon are reacting to the radicalization of the Republican Party would and like to see the same thing done to Bush, both because of the Iraq war and as payback, but the Democratic Party leaders are not controlled by its radical fringe.
Posted by: joan at Oct 21, 2007 5:33:40 PM
George Stigler wrote that the study of economics makes a man conservative. Is he wrong too?
Posted by: Sinclair Davidson at Oct 21, 2007 5:56:16 PM
Because Kansas thank to the oposition to darwinism made itself the target of every liberal rant.Everything associated with Kansas would mean ignorant , barbaric, etc
Posted by: Jules at Oct 21, 2007 6:30:30 PM
"MoveOn was formed when the Republicans impeached Clinton on a party line vote in the house..."
I've heard this before. It goes something like "But mmmmmom, he hit me first!"
Posted by: Dead horse at Oct 21, 2007 10:51:45 PM
"But aren't there well-known organizations influential on the DP, like MoveOn and Daily Kos, that push a fairly radical agenda?
[Sigh] - No. There are well-known organizations (MoveOn, Daily Kos) that have very, very recently began to have some influence with the Democratic Party - although honestly, it's not looking like all that much. They don't have anything even slightly resembling a radical agenda, while the party itself - hmphf. Seriously, what's Krugman's getting at here is best summed up in his (very far from original, of course) observation that by today's standards, Nixon was very liberal (at least in terms of economic and environmental policies).
Posted by: Dan S. at Oct 22, 2007 12:16:52 AM
Which just goes to show (to continue my thought) how far to the right radicals has dragged the GOP.
Posted by: Dan S. at Oct 22, 2007 6:58:56 AM
I've heard this before. It goes something like "But mmmmmom, he hit me first!"
No, it does not. It goes something like "He hit me, and my 3rd cousin once removed would really like to hit him back, but I'm not going to let him"
Posted by: Sorry, you are wrong at Oct 22, 2007 11:32:10 AM
If you thought Mike Dukakis was a radical leftist then yes, MoveOn and Daily Kos probably qualify as "radical". At most those groups want to move the Democratic goal posts back to the pre-Clinton era.
Posted by: vanya at Oct 22, 2007 3:55:47 PM
Alex's post sounds like a true guildsman circling the wagons- WE can criticize our own, but a historian may not. Kennedy issues (1) 2 sentences illustrating factual inaccuracies, (2) 2 paragraphs on Krugman's meta-historical view, (3) another full paragraph on the white wash of the democratic party, and (4) basically focuses on Krugman’s description of political evolution.
And yet Alex erects his strawman ("If the best that historian Kennedy can say against Krugman's") around the two sentences. That’s a bad review by reason of being non-responsive to the review itself, and begs the question of why Alex dislikes the review.
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