« Markets in Everything -- alibi edition | Main | How to write a book on foreign aid »

Trudie's advice to would-be economists

One loyal MR reader, Lee Beck, writes:

You handled love advice so well (Dear Tyler/Prudie)--how about career counseling?
 
MR is my favorite blog, and this is weighing heavily on my career plans. Is this foolish?

My idea is that economics can bridge the gap between my love of math (like real-analysis) and my love of political philosophy (like that of your man Hayek). Sadly, this hasn't worked out so far. I thought my micro and macro courses last year were bores. This confused me so much that I took my obsession with Richard Posner to be a sign that I should go into law instead of economics. Is that crazy?

How can I know whether being an economics professor is for me? What if I worked through Debreu's Theory of Value next semester and liked it. Would that be proof? What's the hard stuff that I should love before entering the field?

The answer, of course, lies beneath the fold...

Trudie responds:

It is not foolish to want to become an economist, but it is foolish to be attracted by this blog.  Yes we have serious posts about the option value of gold.  But graduate study in economics will not sample "Markets in Everything" (remember the Whizzinator?), not consider whether teenage Thomas Jefferson would have a crush on Veronica Mars, nor will it ask "Why Don't People Have More Sex?".  Liking this blog, on average, is a sign that you have broad interests and thus are ill-suited for graduate study in economics.  There is also, dare I say it, a chance that you are simply a silly goose with time to kill.  On the other hand, Greg Mankiw is now reading Jacqueline Passey, so anything is possible.  Welcome, Bizarro Universe.

Two core groups of people are well-suited to be economists:

1. You math GRE score is over 800, you are totally focused, you love working long hours on your own, and you have good enough letters of recommendation to get into a Top Six or perhaps Top Ten graduate school.   Note that white Americans from this category have been partially preempted by competition from foreigners.

2. You could be happy as an academic without much of a research career.  Working at a teaching school is a rewarding life, albeit a poor one relative to your investment in human capital.

There is a third category, although you will fall into it (or not) ex post:

3. You do not fit either #1 or #2.  Yet you have climbed out of the cracks rather than falling into them.  You do something different, and still have managed to make your way doing research, albeit of a different kind.  You will always feel like an outsider in the profession and perhaps you will be underrewarded.  But you will have a great deal of fun and in the long run perhaps a great deal of influence.

Sadly, the chance of achieving #3 is fairly low.  You need some luck and perhaps one or two special skills other than math.

Did I mention that if you have a clearly defined "Plan B" your chance of succeeding at #3 diminishes?  It is important to be fully committed.

Greg Mankiw is a classic #1.  Brad DeLong started off as a #1, although he has been evolving into a #3.  Maybe he was a #3 in hiding all along.  I've been a #3, although with a dose of #1 from having gone to Harvard.  Alex is a classic #3.

Another thing: Don't expect any classes to be interesting.  How should I put it?  "Most professors suck."  But a good professor can make almost any topic interesting.  So your reaction to the courses is just a reaction to the instructors you have sampled.  Treat that as noise, although I will ask why you are worse at picking teachers than at picking advice columnists.

Should you become a legal academic?  You will have a greater chance to work with ideas and concepts.  A greater chance to write books and also to read them.  You are more likely to strut, wear three-piece suits, and speak in stentorian tones.  If I were starting out today, perhaps I would take that route, although I would fail at the strut and the suits.  The pay is higher and upward mobility is easier to accomplish.  But overall the quality of intellectual debate is higher in the economics profession.  In economics the return to rhetoric is lower and you can't get away with blather.  Your articles are refereed by your peers, and not by graduate students (well, it depends what journal you submit to...).  The academic world of law has weaker quality filters, which of course also makes it more open to new ideas.

Your choice, but note that many would-be legal academics end up lured by the private sector or government work.

And by the way, buy her roses, ask her to marry you, and live happily ever after.  The rest probably won't matter so much for your happiness and life satisfaction.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 12, 2006 at 01:44 AM in Education | Permalink

Comments

Good God, you do not need to decide as an undergraduate whether you will be a professor! Make decisions like this "at the margin", which is to say: continue to study a subject as long as you enjoy doing so. (You don't have to love the lectures, but if you don't love the lectures, you had better love working through the textbook on your own.) If your continue to love learning about the subject as an undergrad, graduate student, postdoc, and associate, then you will likely end up as a professor. If at any point you cease to enjoy the subject, do something else. Don't worry too much about not landing on your feet: if you are good at math and manage
to get some undergraduate degree, you won't starve.

Posted by: David Wright at Jul 12, 2006 2:41:41 AM

TC's is speaking the truth. Academic economics is nuthin' like MR and/or Freakonomics make it out to be.

Run for the hills!

Posted by: Varangy at Jul 12, 2006 3:09:47 AM

You know the maximum posible score in the math section of the GRE is 800, right?

Posted by: anon at Jul 12, 2006 3:17:57 AM

He could be referring to the math subject test (which goes up to 990) but I think only math grad school applicants take that.

Posted by: Jacqueline at Jul 12, 2006 3:24:16 AM

Is anybody else out there about to embark on an economics post-grad course and thinking .... 1. -er, no ....2. er, no ... 3. er, I wish, but not likely? Thank God for you David Wright

Posted by: Luis Enrique at Jul 12, 2006 3:25:11 AM

As David Wright points out, if you can do math AND write coherent expository English, you will be employable.

Posted by: Bill Gardner at Jul 12, 2006 8:33:57 AM

The question is, what's the best way to set up an exit strategy should you find that you're neither 1 2 or 3 after all? The quant skills should be pretty transferable to industry but will the lifestyle?

Posted by: quitacet at Jul 12, 2006 9:04:06 AM

What this guy is really saying is that econ undergrad teaching is weak for mathematically inclined people. I was a lot like him as an undergraduate -- I mostly studied math and political philosophy at a top 3 school. The undergrad econ courses were just too watered down to interest the same people who loved the top math and physics courses at my school. It was pretty clear that the econ department saw their role as training people for wall street rather than recruiting future economists. Several professors told me that if I wanted to go to econ grad school, I'd be better off majoring in math than in econ.

Posted by: DK at Jul 12, 2006 9:05:03 AM

The GRE General Math test does go up to 800, but it essentially measures your understanding of high school mathematics. If you can't score 800 on it, then perhaps graduate study of economics is not the best option.

Posted by: don Hosek at Jul 12, 2006 9:13:04 AM

Well that's disappointing news. I got an 800, have a MA in Ag. Econ., am working at a development research institute and hope to get respectable letters from respected researchers. That said, the PhD-track work I have done was tough (I majored in Athropology college - not enough math!) and I don't anticipate getting into a top ten program. Am I hearing that I'm unlikely to have a good research career? Or, are Trudie's standards for "good" just a little higher than mine, in which case I'd be happy with a mediorce/poor research career?

Posted by: SM at Jul 12, 2006 9:45:13 AM

"Liking this blog, on average, is a sign that you have broad interests and thus are ill-suited for graduate study in economics."

On average you may be correct, but I'm not so sure. I am a prospective econ grad student (currently working on BA/MA), and I read this blog as break from more rigorous material. I find it very interesting and enjoyable, but it has little to do with higher-level econ. BTW, where would you class those looking at business econ research?

Posted by: Alex at Jul 12, 2006 10:03:14 AM

Scoring above the maximum 800 would mean you finished the math section in half the allotted time, spent the rest of the time daydreaming about harder problems, and still scored an 800!

Posted by: None at Jul 12, 2006 10:12:19 AM

I wish to echo SM, but from a different point of view. How should those of us who would consider a graduate program in economics engage in the consideration of GMU's graduate program? It isn't in the top ten, but it has a lot of excellent faculty in some really fascinating areas. Are we destined for a life of (2) or (3) if we go to GMU?

Posted by: hamilton at Jul 12, 2006 10:18:23 AM

Hey people, that line about > 800 was a joke!

Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Jul 12, 2006 10:19:32 AM

What if I worked through Debreu's Theory of Value next semester and liked it. Would that be proof?

That's not the book to read. Don't.

What's the hard stuff that I should love before entering the field?

Take a look at serious research in, say, three different areas in economics. E.g., read "Putting Auction Theory to Work" by Paul Milgrom, papers by Acemoglu (http://www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA/JohnBatesClarkMedal.htm), and classic papers on finance (Black-Scholes; books by Merton (Continuous-Time Finance) and Cochrane (Asset Pricing)). If you manage to get through the books and papers (and don't expect it to be easy) AND find at least one of the areas exciting (i.e., you'd be willing to spend 10 years of your life on it), you should go to grad school.

However, only go if you get accepted to a top 5-10 department; the probability of Tyler's (3) is negligible.

Posted by: no at Jul 12, 2006 11:38:05 AM

I am just starting a graduate program (in Canada, not at a top ten school) and I feel like I was born a number 3. I would not have it any other way either. Maybe Alex could post some advice for other number 3's out there.

Posted by: Josh at Jul 12, 2006 12:15:17 PM

Speaking from experience, #2 is not sufficient if #1 does not hold.

Posted by: Noah Yetter at Jul 12, 2006 12:31:00 PM

So what to do for us poor saps who love the econ way of thinking and are very analytical, and who also write very well, but are more likely to be in the 80 than the 800 range on the math GRE?

Posted by: Tim S. at Jul 12, 2006 12:38:38 PM

Tim S. --- go to law school.

Posted by: no at Jul 12, 2006 12:48:37 PM

Tyler seems to be a little pessimistic here. People getting Ph.D.'s even from programs ranked below the top 30 may often end up with rewarding and interesting jobs which might not involve teaching at an undergraduate institution. There are many positions in NGO's, government, and various industries which pay reasonably well and for which Econ Ph.D.'s are very competative. Overall, the unemployment rate for Econ Ph.D.'s is very low, and they find it easier to get jobs than those with many others with advanced degrees.

Additionally, Law school does not seem to be all its cracked up to be. You have to be really really good to get one of the top academic positions, and for many law students, any math skills you have may go to waste. And the law degree is very expensive considering that many of the people who get their degrees do not end up practicing law.

Posted by: Steven McMullen at Jul 12, 2006 3:16:33 PM

Tyler seems to be a little pessimistic here. People getting Ph.D.'s even from programs ranked below the top 30 may often end up with rewarding and interesting jobs which might not involve teaching at an undergraduate institution. There are many positions in NGO's, government, and various industries which pay reasonably well and for which Econ Ph.D.'s are very competative. Overall, the unemployment rate for Econ Ph.D.'s is very low, and they find it easier to get jobs than those with many others with advanced degrees.

Additionally, Law school does not seem to be all its cracked up to be. You have to be really really good to get one of the top academic positions, and for many law students, any math skills you have may go to waste. And the law degree is very expensive considering that many of the people who get their degrees do not end up practicing law.

Posted by: Steven McMullen at Jul 12, 2006 3:17:50 PM

any fearless entrepreneurs out there? that was the normative implication i took from economic theory, anyway.
/presently earning his flashy credential

Posted by: alcibiades at Jul 12, 2006 10:59:07 PM

Are you this funny in real life? Its pretty good advice and extremely funny.

Posted by: mickslam at Jul 13, 2006 12:12:19 AM

I would disagree that your typical peer-reviewed journal turns out a better product than your typical student-edited law review. First, the peer review process is far more arbitrary than is generally let on. Second, there are a million law reviews, and competition among them is fierce. Each wants to publish the next blockbuster article that gets cited in some Supreme Court dissent. Think about the typical peer review process. You write your groundbreaking article and send it off to one of the three journals in your field. From here, the editors send it off to three anonymous reviewers. The editors pick these three because they (presumably) have some expertise in the area you are writing on. The first reviewer, of course, wrote the theory that your groundbreaking article is debunking. His comments are nasty and unhelpful and, of course, he votes to not publish your article since you are so clearly wrong. The second review has a huge research and teaching load this semester, but she agrees to review the paper since she wants to remain in the "reviewers' loop"--and she also wants to remain on the good side of the editors so they don't send her future article off to a bunch of morons. Her comments are short and unhelpful. You may get lucky with the third guy. Or maybe not. Whether you get published or not doesn't seem much related to the quality of your article (assuming it doesn't just stink, of course). With law reviews, of course, you will get published, even if you do stink. However, if your article is really good (or you are already famous), it will get published in a top law journal (Yale, Harvard, Chicago, etc.) But regardless of where it is published, it will end up on Lexis/Nexis, and if it is really good or particularly helpful, it will end up being cited and read widely. This, it seems to me, is far more market-oriented than the Mandarin-led peer review process.


Posted by: Epstein's Mother at Jul 13, 2006 12:33:31 AM

--Good God, you do not need to decide as an undergraduate whether you will be a professor!

Actually, you do unless you are a classic #1, and then you've defacto decided anyway, because the system pushes you in that direction unless you do something to fall off the path.


"love of learning your subject" doesn't teach anyone how to DO research--how to pick a research topic, how to write a paper, how to complete it by the necessary deadline. It doesn't teach you how to pick an advisor, or a mentor. It doesn't help when you hate your thesis, office mates, or folks in your dept.

only classic #1s find those things easy, and even then, it's not the grades--it's an intution about how academia works. the rest of those who might enjoy academia will need to keep finding out how to make that workable, and starting as an undergrad is the right time.

finally, if you're NOT going to like academia, figuring that out BEFORE you go to 3 post docs is helpful. the sooner you begin questioning it the better.

Posted by: anonymous at Jul 13, 2006 12:51:10 AM

Post a comment