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Innumeracy can get you killed
"Statistically, it is very dangerous, but I have lived here a long time and I don't feel like I'm in any danger."
That is Justin Fenton, the Baltimore Sun's crime correspondent.
The quote comes from a longer article by a British reporter who switched places with his Baltimore counterpart because he wanted to see whether The Wire was accurate. It is.
Posted by Alex Tabarrok on November 12, 2009 at 02:23 PM in Current Affairs, Television | Permalink
Comments
I guess you missed this other quote: "Those not involved in the drug trade are apparently as unlikely to be murdered in Baltimore as they are in any other civilised city in the world. Figures seem to suggest that is true."
Posted by: anonymous at Nov 12, 2009 2:36:55 PM
The Wire is the finest piece of television I have ever seen; I think this "unique collaboration" is an excellent ides. Thanks for bringing it to attention.
Posted by: anonymous at Nov 12, 2009 2:47:30 PM
I wonder if he would let his daughter go out by herself after midnight. Actually, I don't wonder at all.
Posted by: josh at Nov 12, 2009 3:08:51 PM
Are you trying to suggest that he is making a logical fallacy here? Because he isn't.
Posted by: Colin at Nov 12, 2009 3:35:45 PM
This series is evidence that The Wire is doing real-world good.
Posted by: Bill Mill at Nov 12, 2009 3:42:20 PM
By the way, marijuana has definitely been de-facto decriminalized here in Los Angeles through medical marijuana provisions. And there has been a 50% drop in homicides since 2005. Coincidence?
Here is where you can get your "420" in LA:
http://www.losangelescannabisclubs.com/directory/
Posted by: Mr. Econotarian at Nov 12, 2009 3:52:10 PM
By the way, marijuana has definitely been de-facto decriminalized here in Los Angeles through medical marijuana provisions. And there has been a 50% drop in homicides since 2005.
Is there even all that much violent criminal activity associated with marijuana? I always thought of it as a bunch of useless hippies growing it in their basements and selling it to each other. Cocaine, heroin, meth -- those were the ones I thought drove the drug violence. Was pot big in the criminal drug trade too?
Posted by: Taeyoung at Nov 12, 2009 4:15:25 PM
He's right. I've lived in Baltimore for years without trouble. If you're not involved in the drug trade you're fine.
Posted by: Thom at Nov 12, 2009 4:31:38 PM
Taeyoung -- Yeah, A bunch of useless hippies like Louis Armstrong, Carl Sagan, Barack Obama...
Posted by: David at Nov 12, 2009 5:00:51 PM
"Taeyoung -- Yeah, A bunch of useless hippies like Louis Armstrong, Carl Sagan, Barack Obama..." -David
Only two of those help your case...
Posted by: Jayson Virissimo at Nov 12, 2009 6:05:25 PM
You're right Jayson, Louis Armstrong was no useless hippie
Posted by: Jie at Nov 12, 2009 8:53:04 PM
I spent a lot of my spare time the first half of this year walking around in Phillly, NYC, Pittsburgh, Boston, and Baltimore. Of those cities, the only one that scared me was Baltimore. I was walking in a particular neighborhood and I suddenly thought to myself "I don't belong here. I need to leave NOW." Specifically, it was West Saratoga Street and State Street.
Posted by: Russell Nelson at Nov 13, 2009 12:23:46 AM
I guess you missed this other quote: "Those not involved in the drug trade are apparently as unlikely to be murdered in Baltimore as they are in any other civilised city in the world. Figures seem to suggest that is true."
I sure didn't miss it, nor did I miss the fact that the figures cited in support were the wrong ones. The claim seems to be that P(murdered)|Baltimore & Non-drug-trade = P(murdered)|Other-civilized-city & Non-drug-trade, but the figure given reflects only P(murdered)|Baltimore & Drug-trade /(murdered)|Baltimore. Since there are no numbers about other cities, there is no support whatsoever for the quoted claim.
Posted by: J. Goard at Nov 13, 2009 1:29:53 AM
It was really nice post. And must say that you written it really well as you got so strong response.
Posted by: fit flops at Nov 13, 2009 2:09:18 AM
Agree with Goard. Not being involved in drug trade makes you a lot safer everywhere. Outside of domestic fights and internal organized crime/drug trade internal affairs, many places are almost free of murder at all.
Posted by: Zamfir at Nov 13, 2009 3:15:55 AM
Perhaps Alex is referencing the possibility that a crime correspondent may dance on the margin of the drug trade.
Do drug users treat disinterested journalists as well as Al Qaeda does?
Posted by: Andrew at Nov 13, 2009 5:53:04 AM
I used to live in the Canton neighborhood in Baltimore, where the crime rate is quite low. You can live in Baltimore your whole life without taking much risk of being murdered, as long as you don't live in certain bad neighborhoods, as long as you are neither involved in the drug trade nor a close family member of someone who is, and as long as you don't witness a murder and agree to testify.
A large proportion of the murders are revenge killings among drug gangs, and between drug gangs and the armed robbers who steal from them. Each initial murder can lead to five or six more as the cycle of revenge works itself out. Normally revenge killings are of drug gang members or armed robbers, but sometimes of their family members.
Posted by: Peter at Nov 13, 2009 2:12:52 PM
This switch is flawed. The American reporter should have gone to Glasgow.
Posted by: DR at Nov 13, 2009 3:03:37 PM
"I was walking in a particular neighborhood and I suddenly thought to myself "I don't belong here. I need to leave NOW." Specifically, it was West Saratoga Street and State Street."
What could possibly have scared you about that area? It's quite safe. I refer you to the very useful Baltimore murder map:
http://essentials.baltimoresun.com/micro_sun/homicides/
Posted by: N at Nov 14, 2009 5:06:37 PM
N,
The Baltimore murder map doesn't include assalts, shootings, etc.
For that see: http://crimebaltimore.com/
(and remember this is the city that originated the "stop snitching" campaign, so the real numbers are almost certainly higher.)
As someone whose lived nearby for a few years, I can assure you that Russell's concerns were valid.
Posted by: roy at Nov 16, 2009 1:29:36 PM
