« Assorted links | Main | NASA FAQ 2012 »
Countercyclical "asset" of the day -- burglary watch
With a lot more unemployed people, a lot more people are staying home, and they see more in their neighborhood," said Sgt. Thomas Lasater, who supervises the burglary unit of the police department in St. Louis County, Mo., where authorities recorded a whopping 35 percent drop in burglaries during the first six months of 2009.
The falling price of raw materials -- which had been producing copper and other thefts -- may be another reason for the change in trend. Here is the story and I thank Daniel Lippman for the pointer.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on November 9, 2009 at 06:18 PM in Law | Permalink
Comments
That isn't counter-cyclical, but cyclical.
Counter-cyclical would be if it went up when the economy got worse.
Posted by: Doc Merlin at Nov 9, 2009 6:47:49 PM
I've changed the title for a better rephrasing...
Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Nov 9, 2009 7:50:32 PM
Funny how several years ago, a 5% unemployment rate was an ungodly disaster, spawning daily news stories of the impending end-times, all due to government malpractice.
But now, a 10% unemployment rate yields tales of unexpected goodness -- more time with the family, fewer burglaries, eco-friendly conservation, and so forth.
I wonder what changed?
Posted by: Jim at Nov 9, 2009 9:12:59 PM
The other counter-cyclical item is early retirement. People are not retiring as early as they planned, which leads to a back up in the job market. Think about it: if we had the same rate of early retirement before the recession, we would have lower unemployment today. What is probably happening is that people are staying on the job for health insurance, while waiting for their 401k to repair itself.
Here's a countercyclical proposal: what could you do to encourage retirement at 60 or 62 that would not cost the government a penny (as opposed to proposals to give a tax credit to companies that do new hiring (probably of persons that would have been rehired anyway))? Here's an idea: let persons who retire from their job buy into Medicare at 62 at the full cost (no government subsidy)of Medicare. You'd probably entice some people to exit the workforce early. Similarly, and at no cost to the government as well, you could (using an annuity adjustment) figure out what a reduced Social security benefit would be if you retire at 60, instead of 62 (in other words, reduce the benefit below the benefit available to a 62 year old). You'd probably get some people to retire as well.
If we can do some countercyclical planning--call this cash for human clunkers--we could have program that would take people out of the workforce AT NO COST to the government. Every person who retires frees up a job for someone else. You could have this program kick in whenever unemployment exceeds 8 percent.
Think about this as a countercyclical program that would reduce unemployment at no cost to the government.
Posted by: Bill at Nov 9, 2009 10:45:09 PM
Bill,
I guess we could never see eye-to-eye on things such as this. In my experience, retirement-age people are a bargain. To shuffle them off to retirement may let everyone up a rung in the ladder, opening a slot at the bottom, but so much expertise is lost with a retirement that I'd bet it's a net destruction of value.
This leads to something I've been pondering lately. All the hand-wringing over current employment and the tools the government wields to "fix" it amount to robbing from past labor (inflation) and future labor (debt) to prop up present labor. I don't doubt that it garners votes, but that's making a virtue of necessity.
Posted by: Andrew at Nov 9, 2009 11:47:02 PM
One of the important factors in the decrease in home burglary is the declining aftermarket value of consumer electronics. As Moore's Law drives much faster product cycles, only firearms, cash, silver, and jewelry remain lucrative on the resale market. Blu-Ray players, computers and LCD TV's drop in price so quickly as to be almost unprofitable on the secondary market.
Posted by: Gene Hoffman at Nov 10, 2009 12:37:35 AM
Candidates appearing for the 70-214 Exam are expected to be able to successfully accomplish various technical tasks, for which it is advised that they are thorough both the theoretical as well as the practical aspects of the subject.290 70
Posted by: Lily at Nov 10, 2009 12:47:12 AM
Hey Bill,
Let me explain how this works. It's my job to worry about how much something costs the taxpayers. Your job is to say something like "we should pay these retirees to teach career classes to low-income groups of people." Then I say something like "fine, then let's give them tax credits to do so."
Capiche?
Posted by: Andrew at Nov 10, 2009 12:51:02 AM
Burglary is declining? I must be really unlucky - I was burglarized two weeks ago.
The point about rapid decline in the value of electronics is interesting. I was astonished to see how little it will cost to replace the electronics that were stolen. I was also unaware (until now) that the price of silver has tripled since our wedding.
One thing amused me... the burglars went out of their way to make as little mess as possible. Does that mean the burglar was relatively sophisticated?
Posted by: PJ at Nov 10, 2009 12:49:44 PM
