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My favorite movie watching season
I always love the Fall, not for the changing leaves, not for the weather, and not for the chance to show off my sweater collection. I love the Fall because it's the best movie season of the year. The months from September to December is when all the distributors bring out their smart, adult, critically favored, award season films. The summer is left to the kids and the action blockbusters, but over the next few months is when all the Oscar contenders will be released. UP IN THE AIR, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE, MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS, THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR PARNASSUS are just a very few of the smart, cool, quality looking pictures that I'm looking forward to seeing over the next few weeks.
I have always assumed, and I believe it's conventional wisdom in the industry, that these kinds of films come out at the tail end of the year in order to remain in voters minds come Oscar ballot time, which is immediately in the new year. The thinking is that any film that comes out in the early part of the year will be forgotten and overlooked compared to the more recent offering, regardless of it's artistic merit. Aside from it being a sad commentary on the shortness of our memories I'm wondering if this is entirley true. I'm taking a leap here and turning to the educted readers of MR for their feedback, but I wonder if like the proven business observation that when a second carpet shop opens beside the first it's competition, when a third opens it becomes the carpet district and is good for all of them. Is there something about a grouping of similarly aimed films coming out all at once, even from competing distributors, that increases the box office for all as opposed to having them spread out evenly throughout the year? I know I'm drawing a parellel between geography and the calendar, and perhaps that's a classic apples and orange mix, but I can't help but wonder if creating a film 'season' is not conferring a benefit to all the films that are released in this period.
Posted by Nicholas Tabarrok on October 14, 2009 at 01:06 PM | Permalink
Comments
Did you read "The Men Who Stare at Goats?"
Posted by: Seward at Oct 14, 2009 1:09:26 PM
Great post! Keep up the excellent work!!
COMMON CENTS
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
ps. Link Exchange?
Posted by: Steve at Oct 14, 2009 1:17:07 PM
Don't forget "Everybody's Fine," "Nine," "It's Complicated," and "Invictus."
Posted by: J. Daniel Wright at Oct 14, 2009 1:34:08 PM
One of the things people noted in the Netflix prize competition (and probably earlier) is that people tend to rate movies more highly if they watched them recently. So it does seem to make a lot of sense to queue up the award contenders as close to the Oscars as possible.
Posted by: Sam at Oct 14, 2009 1:39:41 PM
Yes, but a lot of the movie-going urge by grown-ups is simply people who want a decent excuse to get out of the house as long as it doesn't insult their intelligence. So, why not give them something to see year round, especially in the late winter and early spring when the weather is still too lousy for outdoor fun? Why pack all the movies for people over 16 into 13 weeks of the year?
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Oct 14, 2009 1:58:57 PM
The study also found that both apples and oranges were sweet, similar in size, weight, and shape, that both are grown in orchards, and both may be eaten, juiced, and so on.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apples_and_oranges#.22Scientific.22_criticism
Posted by: Max at Oct 14, 2009 2:09:40 PM
For a lot of people (me anyway), it's sometimes hard to find the time to actually go out and see a movie in the theater.
But when I do, they experience reminds me how much I enjoy it, and this fresh memory prompts me (for awhile anyway) to consider seeing other current-release movies.
Posted by: JackTrade at Oct 14, 2009 2:16:54 PM
Is "wild things" really a movie for intelligent adults? or is it for infantile adults obseessed with their childhood?
Posted by: Gabe at Oct 14, 2009 2:20:53 PM
The season began with the release of "A Serious Man" I'd say.
Posted by: Ted Craig at Oct 14, 2009 2:37:00 PM
A quick survey of shows 8 out of the last 10 winners of the Academy Award for Best Picture were released in October through December (with Crash & Gladiator being the exceptions).
It wouldn't take too much time to do a larger sampling.
Posted by: Dann Ryan at Oct 14, 2009 2:37:48 PM
I don't know, I kind of like the "season" because I suddenly start paying attention to movie times, when before I just don't care enough to check every other week.
It would make sense to me to have another batch of Oscar contenders come out early in the year so the DVDs can come out around this time, too and jog everyone's memory who saw them and reach the at-home audience too. And you can just send out DVDs to potential voters without having to worry about someone pirating them before the movie is availible on DVD!
Posted by: megs at Oct 14, 2009 2:45:20 PM
As retirees my wife and I go throughout the year, if there's a film which seems attractive: Hurt Locker, Capitalism, The Informant. We see other white-haired or balding people there, so I suspect we're representative. Suggest you ask Fairfax Cinema Arts about their attendance trends.
Posted by: Bill Harshaw at Oct 14, 2009 3:07:35 PM
I believe the releasing of all the quality films at a certain time could also be due to a network effect.
Posted by: Ryan at Oct 14, 2009 3:15:04 PM
Maybe it has something to do with your first sentence. People also remember things in relation to emotion. Making the smart adults happy could help your chances. When a few good movies cluster they are happier. When all the movies cluster, it then becomes highly unlikely to win if you don't join the pack. Better to be the best to surf the big wave than the only one in the mush. I wonder if when Crash and Gladiator won there was a collectively disappointing Fall season. It's a theory. Any number of things could kick off a feedback loop and it almost doesn't matter which do. If there can be a cycle, there probably will be, even for no other reason than people think there should be.
Posted by: Andrew at Oct 14, 2009 3:33:10 PM
I've never understood the "Summer Blockbuster" phenomenon. Maybe it's because I'm from MN, but the last thing I want to be doing in the summer is sitting inside. Summer is for being outdoors. I see many more movies during the winter.
Posted by: Dr. Yogi at Oct 14, 2009 3:36:39 PM
Or maybe people just like to watch films in the Fall, when the weather is not good enough for doing summery things anymore, and they have time. Or something like that.
But I don't know how much film producers care about getting an Oscar. It would probably be rather irrational since the chances of getting an oscar are rather low. But then, rational people don't enter the film business anyways, or do they?
Posted by: IWantCookieNow at Oct 14, 2009 3:43:32 PM
To Dr. Yogi:
I have read that the summer blockbuster began in the South in the 1930's when theaters had air conditioning and houses didn't. A way to attract customers was to get them out of the heat and this carried over to the rest of the country. I don't know if this is entirely true but it sounds reasonable.
Posted by: Tim at Oct 14, 2009 5:38:36 PM
What makes a movie smart?
I think there are two good examples that suggest you need to release a movie late in the year to win. In 2008 the most visually impressive, intellectually stimulating, and popular movie of the year was released in July and didn't win Best Picture.
Also, in 1977 a movie that was released in May was nominated but lost. It went on in later years to be the AFI's #13 best movie, win Empire's Best movie of all-time poll, consistently be in imdb's top 15, was the top-grossing movie of all-time adjusted for inflation (post-1970), and is tied for 2nd highest rated film on Netflix I believe.
I think that tells you everything you need to know.
Posted by: Steve at Oct 14, 2009 6:51:00 PM
I'd add Damn United. Cannot wait to see it.
Posted by: @marycray at Oct 14, 2009 7:24:43 PM
As of September, school age children and undergraduates suddenly have a lot less free time. In the fall, there is less of an audience for KABLAMO! and at least as much of an audience for thoughtful cinema.
Testable hypothesis: if the Oscars were held in late August, the summer would still be blockbuster season.
Posted by: Ian at Oct 15, 2009 5:28:03 AM
Oscar voters go to a lot of holiday parties.
Oscar voters need something to talk about at said parties.
Oscar voters talk about the great movies they just saw.
Gushing about a movie with Keats falling in love but there's no nudity is a hard sell sitting in a beach chair in the middle of July.
Posted by: Brian at Oct 15, 2009 12:13:54 PM
great blog! Definitely check out http://www.roweandesign.com/clients/axtv/ . It might not be part of your favorite movie watching season but it could be your favorite show of the season. I know it's mines!
Posted by: Becky at Oct 19, 2009 3:49:29 PM
