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Oil price speculation

There's lot of talk about curbing speculation in energy markets.  Simon Johnson has an excellent post on this topic:  He writes:

1) They are trying hard to talk up the market, with regard to global growth.  At the same time, the hard data continue to disappoint.  Naturally, this causes volatility in oil prices.

2) They claim to see no link between their failure to converge on climate change/environmental policies and what happens to energy prices.  The extent to which industrialized countries’ effectively control carbon emissions will have a big impact on the longer-run demand for oil.  Flip-flopping on this issue discourages investment in the energy sector (regular and alternative), and thus directly and indirectly contributes to oil price volatility.

3) The very cheap money policies of leading central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of England and arguably also the European Central Bank, lower the funding costs for big players who want to take large positions in commodities markets.  Essentially, we are providing the credit that makes big speculative positions possible.  Add to this mix a “too big to fail” attitude and a “yes we can, recapitalize through trading profits” deal with policymakers, and you see why major financial firms are likely to place huge commodity bets in the months ahead.

...The true speculators here are your elected representatives.


Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 10, 2009 at 12:13 PM in Economics | Permalink

Comments

Should the price of oil in 2050 or 2100 be incorporated into today's price of oil?

Is the future going to be Mad Max or Star Trek?

Posted by: mulp at Jul 10, 2009 12:42:14 PM

@mulp: "Should the price of oil in 2050 or 2100 be incorporated into today's price of oil"

It is, automatically!

Posted by: Doc Merlin at Jul 10, 2009 1:07:23 PM

Tyler,
SJ's post is not about price speculation. It's about his disappointment with politicians. He blames them for his disappointment, but he has done enough research on development to know better. Furthermore, he mentions only non-US politicians and I wonder if he's looking for a position in the BHO administration.

Posted by: E. Barandiaran at Jul 10, 2009 1:07:33 PM

Should the price of oil in 2050 or 2100 be incorporated into today's price of oil?

Of course it should. The price system plays a vital role in economic coordination--if current markets do not take future prices into account, economic plans will become increasingly discoordinated and unsustainable.

Luckily for us, oil producers and speculators make sure that this adjustment occurs smoothly, by forecasting future economic conditions and adjusting oil reserves and inventories accordingly.

Posted by: anon at Jul 10, 2009 1:13:18 PM

Of course the price of oil in 2050 or 2010 be incorporated in today's price of oil.

Tell me, how do you estimate the 2050 or 2010 price of oil?

You check on the futures market.

Right, but doesn't this mean you are just running around in circles.

Even the major oil companies do not do that.

Over the last few years their basic assumption for future exploration and development budgets assumed something like $30- $40 oil even when the spot price was over $100.

Posted by: spencer at Jul 10, 2009 1:23:26 PM

It is what I call the "echo" effect.

That is the tendency after a market correct or bear market for portfolio managers to go back and buy what worked in the last bull market even though the basic economic fundamentals have changed drastically.

Makes a lot more sense to me that blaming government.

Posted by: spencer at Jul 10, 2009 1:28:00 PM

@mulp: "Should the price of oil in 2050 or 2100 be incorporated into today's price of oil"

It is, automatically!

So, Mad Max is the future.

How depressing.

Posted by: mulp at Jul 10, 2009 3:21:51 PM

Asset bubbles driven by central bank inflation. Hmmm....

Point 3 has the tincture of ABCT, if I do say so myself.

Posted by: John Papola at Jul 10, 2009 3:51:45 PM

funny, I though oil prices were a way to hedge against weak US dollar positions. Who knew it was politicians?

Posted by: charlie at Jul 10, 2009 3:54:30 PM

Speculation is important, it serves as a prediction market. The problem is that its hard to read exactly what the prediction is, is increasing long oil positions mean an expectation the dollar will go down? Does it mean an expectation that oil prices will rise?
I guess from micro 101 (think of opportunity costs and all) we could treat a long bet on oil as equivalent to a short bet on everything not oil for prediction purposes. This is why the rising price of gold during '05-'07 was so scary for me, and predicted (although I didn't see it at the time) the "invisible" recession in '08, which was masked by a falling dollar and profligate leveraging.

Anyway, I predict oil prices will start dropping again to around 40, and although Chinese demand is going to skyrocket, world production outside opec countries will too. Its now on paper, lets see if I am right.

Posted by: Doc Merlin at Jul 10, 2009 4:48:38 PM

The answer, obviously, is to establish a market in derivatives swapping risk caused by speculation... right?

Posted by: Geoff NoNick at Jul 10, 2009 10:02:43 PM

Wait. I thought the left wing wanted hydrocarbon prices high so we would use less of them! If they for some reason think that speculators are causing prices to be higher: don't they think that is a GOOD thing? I don't get it. Don't they CARE about GLOBAL WARMING? What are they? A bunch of DENIERS? Am I the ONLY CRAZY PERSON HERE?

Posted by: Rob at Jul 10, 2009 10:45:19 PM

Government officials are getting very, very annoyed that speculators are choosing to invest in commodities rather than government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-back securites, and stocks.

Posted by: Yancey Ward at Jul 11, 2009 1:02:57 PM

coal-to-oil will generate oil at about $40 a barrel in today's dollars (not counting carbon taxes), in order to compete with that, petroleum from traditional sources will need to drop to around that price. More than likely, if they want to destroy that industry they will have to drop the price of the petroleum substantially below $40, or institute some sort of government interference.

Posted by: Doc Merlin at Jul 11, 2009 7:43:51 PM

Spencer, it is not true that there were not major oil companies last year using oil at $100 for SOME of their projects. When the price dropped, frantic changes in plans were made. I would be willing to call that irrational behavior, but... you know.

Posted by: Rob at Jul 11, 2009 8:15:02 PM

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