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How to disappear
Tips from a teacher (markets in everything):
There are three key steps to disappearing. First, destroy old information about yourself. Call your video store or electricity company and replace your old, correct phone number with a new, invented one. Introduce spelling mistakes into your utility bills. Create a PO Box for your mail. Don’t use your credit cards and the like.
Then, create bogus information to fool private investigators who might be looking for you. Go to one city and apply for an apartment. Rent a car in another one.
The next, final step is the most important one. Move from point A to point B. Create a dummy company to pay your bills. Only use prepaid mobile phones and change them every month. It is nearly impossible to find out where you are unless you make a mistake.
Is that last sentence so reassuring? What is his success rate?
Usually, I don’t hear back from my clients. It would be too dangerous.
I occasionally wonder that if I had a) a new identity, b) enough money to live on, and c) a willingness to live abroad and no family for them to threaten, how long would it take a team of ten professional hit men to find me. What would be their optimal strategy of pursuit?
For the pointer I thank Henry Farrell. Here is Henry's interesting post on the surprising success of smoking bans.
Addendum: Bruce Bartlett refers me to www.escapeartist.com.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on June 15, 2009 at 07:11 AM in Law | Permalink
Comments
You'd have to avoid being pohotographed lest image searches come up with you in the background of somebody's holiday snaps. Or wear one of those Muslim tent things.
Posted by: dearieme at Jun 15, 2009 8:00:54 AM
Optimal strategy of pursuit:
Develop a taste for fesenjan and see where it leads?
Posted by: JW at Jun 15, 2009 8:06:52 AM
"I occasionally wonder..."
Less than one day - the longest you can go without posting on MR.
Posted by: Tom at Jun 15, 2009 8:43:11 AM
Cherchez la femme
Posted by: Andrew at Jun 15, 2009 8:44:12 AM
This is a very old story. Makes me worry about FT's abilities to spot trends....
OK, maybe it was just a slow news day. Or a reporter doing his own research.
Posted by: anon at Jun 15, 2009 9:16:54 AM
OK, maybe it was just a slow news day. Or a reporter doing his own research.
Now I see: it was a guy trying to drum up business.
Posted by: anon at Jun 15, 2009 9:18:55 AM
I suspect browsing habits are pretty unique fingerprints, if you can get access to that data. But making a few changes there might be enough to disappear in the masses.
In a sense, that's the problem: for every trick you are aware of to find you, you can find a decent countermeasure. But there might always be some trick you forgot.
Posted by: Zamfir at Jun 15, 2009 9:29:43 AM
I knew of a man who murdered his girl-friend in
Philadelphia, whose crime was undiscovered for a
year or so, who then fled to Europe, where he
lived for many years under assumed identities,
in Ireland, Sweden, and France, where his wife
made the mistake of using his old driver's
license. He has been serving time in the United
States, but has always insisted that he was framed
for his dissident activities in the 1960s and
1970s. Not all the resources of the police and
associated agencies could penetrate his disguise
for something like 16 years.
Posted by: Candadai Tirumalai at Jun 15, 2009 9:52:40 AM
how do the two threads reconcile?
when smoking is outlawed, only outlaws will disappear into a cloud of smoke?
Posted by: babar at Jun 15, 2009 10:31:02 AM
That would be Ira Einhorn. But I imagine that being a fugitive was easier in his day.
As for the feasibility of disappearing and avoiding hit men, it depends much more on what you are willing to give up (in terms of culture, mobility, and human contact) than on the specific methods. If you want to talk to people you used to know, go out to fine restaurants, and travel, you take risks. If you're willing to move to some small town and become a recluse, it's basically impossible for anyone to find you; but for most people this would be a kind of suicide.
Posted by: bbartlog at Jun 15, 2009 10:41:47 AM
The author claims to have located 50,000 people in his 20 year career as a skip tracer. Let's see, that's 2500 per year, or about 50 per week, or about 10 per business day. Either he's exaggerating or finding people is not be very hard.
Posted by: David at Jun 15, 2009 11:11:00 AM
Maybe you could legally change your name to "John Smith" or something.
I always thought the middle name of food blogger "Jennifer 8. Lee" was some kind of pretentious affectation, until I realized that the whole reason was to make her name Googlable. I wonder if there will be some sharp divide in the future between people whose names are Googlable and those whose aren't, and which will ultimately be seen to be more desirable. I wonder if the virtual world "There" got less hype than Second Life precisely because the company name was unGooglable. But I digress.
In the surveillance society of our future, there will be DNA sniffers on every street corner, next to every camera. We each shed a floating cloud of dead skin cells behind us as we walk. Bloodhounds can detect our unique chemical signature, it's just a matter of time before machines can do so. Better stick to rural areas.
Actually, never mind the street-corner surveillance cameras. The existence of ubiquitous cellphone cameras suggests that at some point surveillance and tracking will be crowdsourced. Every photo uploaded to flickr or Facebook (with timestamp and GPS stamp encoded in the metadata by the camera itself) will get routinely analyzed by facial recognition software. Every video clip on YouTube that shows people walking will be analyzed by gait recognition software, with each person identified by their walk.
Smart dust, robofly drones, surveillance blimps... it's not unrealistic that within our lifetimes, governments will be able to individually track every single living human individual within their borders and perhaps beyond. Long term, the only viable strategy would be to spend your time underground (literally), assisted and protected by a small highly-motivated group of trusted individuals at their own expense. This works well for charismatic terrorist chiefs or cult leaders but not for the average person.
Posted by: anonymous at Jun 15, 2009 1:34:49 PM
If you have law on your side disappearing is probably bad thing; disappear them to prison. If you have money just bribe, no need for fake ID. Another strategy is Lucky Number Seven cocooning into your own property and provoking confrontation on your terms.
Posted by: Phillip Huggan at Jun 15, 2009 2:07:05 PM
To find Tyler, one would simply search for an IP that predominates in economics and food hits. Especially foreign foods.
Steve
Posted by: steve at Jun 15, 2009 4:17:24 PM
I believe Tyler would be unable to resist looking at his Amazon wish list. Surely the server drones at Amazon could be bribed/extorted/threatened.
Posted by: Eric H at Jun 15, 2009 8:43:52 PM
I disappeared quite successfully for nearly four years. I wasn't found, I came forward once I had the proofs I needed to prove my case (was being pursued by the FBI). No one ever came close to finding me. Tyler, you know me, met me, this is my real first name if you want to know more about it. The FBI did everything down to checking the local library for the books I read. Seriously, the agent told me that later.
Most people make mistakes. You must be rigid, you can never be tempted, never risk calling anyone you ever knew. You must be 100% committed to never contacting anyone you ever knew again. You must FEAR. Most people can't do that. You must move to a place you have NO connection to and have never been to before. You must change your name (it is legal to call yourself whatever you like; getting documents is another story that shouldn't be told here). It helps if you have a trade to get work. If you need credentials...that's a problem. If you can demonstrate competence with a definable blue collar skill, you can get work.
The short version is, don't read books on how to disappear. Read books on how to find people and don't make any of those mistakes. I read _how to find anyone, anywhere_.
Posted by: kathleen at Jun 15, 2009 8:57:58 PM
Offer a reward to the staff of the best asian restaurants in south america and the best south american restaurants in asia. Tyler would be found in less than two years.
Posted by: sourcreamus at Jun 15, 2009 10:22:23 PM
Most skip tracing is done at a desk with a phone and computer, most people leave a trail. A little "social engineering" on the phone is sometimes necessary. Never really lie, just sorta work around the truth.
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt at Jun 15, 2009 11:00:33 PM
The first key is never let your address be connected to your name. A great book is "How To Become Invisible" by J.J. Luna.
Posted by: ElamBend at Jun 16, 2009 7:40:57 AM
just put your hands over your eyes -- nobody will be able to see you
Posted by: babar at Jun 16, 2009 8:47:04 AM
bbartlog: you are right about the identification.
Posted by: Candadai Tirumalai at Jun 16, 2009 9:56:50 AM
yeah kathleen I saw the movie about the guy with prosthetic limb. It should be mentioned this threat is about escaping from child support, not hitmen and police.
Posted by: Phillip Huggan at Jun 16, 2009 2:59:19 PM
Phillip, Tyler asked "how long would it take a team of ten professional hit men to find me." We're scripting quasi-possible mafia movies in our heads, here.
Note: don't post pictures online -- face recognition software is getting too commonplace. It might help to tweak your appearance. (e.g. glasses <--> contacts, grow a beard, let your bangs grow out, etc.)
Posted by: Ian at Jun 17, 2009 5:00:26 PM
Don't you need a passport to get out of the country? It seems that would make you pretty traceable. When I've traveled overseas, hotels insisted on holding my password while I was there (they are worried that you'll leave the country without paying). So how, pray tell, do you get down to Belize and get a condo invisibly?
Posted by: chris at Jun 17, 2009 5:56:29 PM
"I occasionally wonder that if I had a) a new identity, b) enough money to live on, and c) a willingness to live abroad and no family for them to threaten, how long would it take a team of ten professional hit men to find me. What would be their optimal strategy of pursuit?"
Occasionally? You're a really odd person.
Posted by: Julius at Jun 18, 2009 9:23:58 AM
