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Keith Stanovich and what IQ is good for
The always-interesting-and-still-underrated Michelle Dawson points me to this batch of work. Here is one of the papers, by Keith E. Stanovich and Richard F. West:
In 7 different studies, the authors observed that a large number of thinking biases are uncorrelated with cognitive ability. These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, “less is more” effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In a further experiment, the authors nonetheless showed that cognitive ability does correlate with the tendency to avoid some rational thinking biases, specifically the tendency to display denominator neglect, probability matching rather than maximizing, belief bias, and matching bias on the 4-card selection task. The authors present a framework for predicting when cognitive ability will and will not correlate with a rational thinking tendency.
Even more interesting, in my view, is that higher-IQ people are more likely to behave rationally when they are told that a rationality issue is on the table, but less so otherwise.
If you are interested in issues of IQ, or for that matter overcoming bias, you should read Stanovich's work. As noted above, higher-IQ people seem to be just as guilty of "myside bias."
Stanovich has a new book summarizing some of the results, namely What Intelligence Tests Miss: The Psychology of Rational Thought. It is more idiosyncratic than the articles (he overcommits to one very particular model of the mind; cognitive laziness, without regard for margin) but recommended nonetheless. For those who care about these issues, a must.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on February 13, 2009 at 05:17 AM in Science | Permalink
Comments
Yeah! The real problem is that our culture overrates the pertinence and validity of IQ tests to measure cognitive ability. Thank goodness that this researcher is shattering this pervasive myth and boldly taking popular perception in a new direction!
Posted by: Billare at Feb 13, 2009 6:06:56 AM
I noticed that in academic life people made ready recourse to the explanation "X is insane".
That would be an alternative explanation for Krugmanism but it seems to me that, without independent evidence, it's just a low blow. (That is what we're discussing, isn't it?)
Posted by: dearieme at Feb 13, 2009 7:18:35 AM
Countdown to Steve Sailer in 5,4,3,2....
Posted by: James at Feb 13, 2009 8:47:59 AM
I only skimmed the one paper, but the basic result seems intuitive and consistent with normaly daily experience, right? Smart people seem no less capable of deceiving themselves than dumb people. One question I'm curious about, which didn't seem to be addressed in the paper, is whether there are biases to which you become more susceptible as you get smarter. Another is whether, say, a class in overcoming cognitive biases would have a long-term effect that would make the results correlate with IQ. (One result they described was that smarter people often overcame their biases better when warned about the existence of a kind of cognitive bias here.)
Posted by: albatross at Feb 13, 2009 9:20:15 AM
> Even more interesting, in my view, is that higher-IQ people are more likely to behave rationally when they are told that a rationality issue is on the table, but less so otherwise.
Many high IQ people subscribe to overly rational systems of thought like libertarianism, thereby forcing things into a rational/logical realm where they are perhaps more comfortable.
Posted by: babar at Feb 13, 2009 9:26:10 AM
There's been some very interesting work published in the management literature on how hard it is for smart people to learn from failure.
Basically, if you've always been smart enough to excel at any intellectual pursuit you've tried, when you finally hit one at which you don't automatically excel (often coming in the transition from student to employee), you can really struggle. Basically, not having any experience with failure leaves you far behind the curve on learning from failure.
Chris Argyris of Harvard is the main guy on this - don't have time right now to go look up the paper.
Posted by: Andrew Edwards at Feb 13, 2009 9:43:09 AM
Useful article.
Thank you
---------------------
girlshot
Posted by: girlshot at Feb 13, 2009 10:00:37 AM
So, in the class "Overcoming biases associated with high IQ" should the people who get A's fail?
Posted by: Andrew at Feb 13, 2009 10:08:59 AM
i wonder if reading this stuf will help explain paul krugman's column today
Posted by: jr at Feb 13, 2009 10:16:58 AM
..."higher-IQ people are more likely to behave rationally when they are told that a rationality issue is on the table."
This the quote de jour.
Posted by: d4winds at Feb 13, 2009 10:38:21 AM
"These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, 'less is more' effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory."
Take someone with a 100 IQ. See if he can explain those concepts to you after even a semester's long class.
That illustrates is what IQ is good for.
Posted by: Mike at Feb 13, 2009 10:45:22 AM
Well executed thought experiment, Mike. Glad you were able to confirm your opinion w/o exiting your skull!
Posted by: Fenn at Feb 13, 2009 11:06:41 AM
Explains the extremely high indicence of people of high acheivement notheless making idiotic decisions. Also explains Krugman... or am I repeating myself.
Posted by: Mario Sanchez at Feb 13, 2009 11:15:48 AM
A solution, which I've tried for a while, it to post a checklist of these biases on your desk to remind yourself to be aware of these cognitive traps. The hard part is remembering to review the checklist before posting a rant online.
Posted by: projectshave at Feb 13, 2009 11:20:13 AM
"One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool." -- George Orwell
Posted by: at Feb 13, 2009 11:27:47 AM
This is interesting.
But like some other commenters, I'm not sure I'm willing to just carry on chatting about a general intelligence factor as though the very notion isn't contested. The glimpses I've had into the history of its invention are not flattering. In general, it's got to be a very messing thing (when it's possible at all) to begin measuring what's at first a folk-notional thing which will then go on to be defined precisely by its measurement.
So I'm skeptical. But I'll keep a low voice because I haven't actually read deeply into the IQ/g debates.
Posted by: Lee at Feb 13, 2009 11:36:52 AM
I suspect Tyler Cowen is actually an employee of Amazon.com. Judging by the number of books I buy that he recommends as "must reads", I think he deserves a promotion. I'm thinking executive VP.
Posted by: Zac at Feb 13, 2009 11:59:47 AM
In the title of one of his 1993 papers, Stanovich seems to coin the word dysrationalia, by analogy with dyslexia.
Surely this is a word that deserves wider popular use, if only for its extra string in ad hominem attacks. Calling someone dysrational rather than irrational implies that they have not merely temporarily failed to see the obvious correctness of my point of view, but are in fact incapable of reason.
Posted by: at Feb 13, 2009 12:12:40 PM
The tests of myside bias in the 2007 and 2008 papers of Stanovich and West in Thinking & Reasoning don’t quite match with what I would expect -- of course, they are the experts, not me, so maybe I am barking up the wrong tree. My conception of myside bias can be illustrated by the case of a traveling call on LeBron James late in a game against the Wizards a little while ago that effectively won the game for the Wizards. Myside bias should say that, at least relative to each other, Cavs fans will tend to disagree with the call and Wizards fans will tend to agree with the call. The independence of cognition to this bias should say something to the effect that the extent of disagreement between the partisans is unaffected by whether the fans are basketball experts or casual fans. It seems that Stanovich and West have tested something more akin to whether basketball referees prone to make a lot of traveling calls agree with the call on LeBron more often than referees prone to make few traveling calls. The independence of cognition here would say that the disagreement between the two groups does not depend on whether the referee works professional/major college leagues or only works pee-wee league games. I don’t expect differences in expertise to affect the bias among the two groups of referees, but I might expect differences in expertise among Wizards and Cavs fans to affect the bias.
A related way to put this is that the two sides may have self-selected into those sides precisely because of the arguments that subjects in Stanovich and West’s tests were asked to evaluate. Why should cognitive ability affect someone’s (subsequent) assessment of an argument that they have already decided does or does not make sense?
This is already too long, but I also am skeptical about their tests vis-a-vis onesided bias.
Posted by: DY at Feb 13, 2009 12:32:49 PM
Essentially, IQ is at least slightly positively correlated with just about all positive skills, behaviors, or outcomes, all else being equal. The most famous exception to this rule is musical rhythm, where there is no correlation, which might help explain why high IQ rocks stars like Mick Jagger, David Bowie, and Pete Townshend tell Drummer Jokes.
Of course, you can all use more brainpower to create a more complicated an imposing rationalizations for falsehoods (see Stephen Jay Gould's anti-IQ book The Mismeasure of Man -- not for evidence, but as a classic example of a high IQ smokescreen).
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Feb 13, 2009 5:14:57 PM
Little bit later than I expected Steve.
I love you accuse anyone of imposing rationalizations for falsehoods, especially in relation to IQ.
Posted by: James at Feb 13, 2009 6:44:41 PM
Steve: old definition - a jazz band is six musicians and a drummer.
Posted by: dearieme at Feb 13, 2009 7:59:57 PM
Intelligence And Rhythmic Accuracy Go Hand In Hand
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080416100459.htm
Posted by: Yaku at Feb 13, 2009 9:09:26 PM
Intelligence And Rhythmic Accuracy Go Hand In Hand
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080416100459.htm
Posted by: Yaku at Feb 13, 2009 9:10:16 PM
One problem with IQ I've read in the self-help books is that smarter people tend to foresee more of the risks involved in an activity. So, this tends to paralyze them. It was probably a good thing when we were as likely to become a sabre tooth snack as bag the mastodon, but in today's world luck favors the bold. So, that might explain why dummies that just do it look like geniuses, until they get to the point where The Peter Principle kicks in.
Unrelated, I wonder what Hank Paulson is up to.
Posted by: Andrew at Feb 14, 2009 12:33:51 AM