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Betting markets in everything
Markets on whether InTrade will continue to exist. The numbers are here.
These markets are run by...InTrade.
I've been looking for markets in the probability of an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange (did the probability of a detonation just go up?) but I have to find one.
I thank Blake Johnson for the pointer.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on November 27, 2008 at 02:28 PM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
Yes comments are back up and running...
Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Nov 27, 2008 2:40:21 PM
That is very very cool.
Posted by: jsalvati at Nov 27, 2008 2:55:39 PM
Applying the Copernican principle, and assuming Intrade has existed since June 2001, we can derive the following estimates:
June '09: 92.7%
Dec. '09: 87.2%
June '10: 82.4%
Dec. '10: 78.1%
On the assumption that the other empirical evidence available is of little significance, we should expect Intrade prices to reflect these figures if prediction markets are generally reliable.
Posted by: Pablo Stafforini at Nov 27, 2008 6:36:35 PM
But how will they pay out?
Posted by: Andrew Edwards at Nov 27, 2008 6:42:39 PM
The current bids are
JUN09 93.2
DEC09 90.1
JUN10 87.0
DEC10 77.1
Looks like most people are applying the Copernican principle.
Posted by: Seamus at Nov 27, 2008 7:10:35 PM
This particularly interesting because tradesports.com, which is run by the same people, is shutting down, fyi.
Posted by: Dave at Nov 27, 2008 7:34:54 PM
Oh dear, this market looks like something cooked up by people who just went to see Synechdoche, NY!
As for Indo-Pak nuclear exchange, not up that much I would say, as someone who has stayed at the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel as well as having eaten at the Leopold Cafe. This is not a Kashmir related event. "Deccan Mujahedin" are clearly Muslim, but probably Indian and not all that Kashmir connected.
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Nov 27, 2008 9:46:29 PM
@Barkley
The loss of life is just tragic and surely all our hearts go out to the people of India, who have been enduring basically monthly low-level terrorism thru this summer and fall.
I was in India for the terrorist attacks in Bangalore in July, which were 9 co-ordinated remote bombings, but nothing at all like this. I sincerely doubt such a sophisticated attack, with RDX military explosives found, could be done by some small local cell of angry Muslim students, as the previous flower-pot bombs were.
Targeting Americans & Brits with automatic weapons? Not the usual practice of the tiny disaffected groups that drop their crude bombs by bicycle at bus shelters. In sum, I'll give you 90% that it's the Pakistani ISI who have trained and funded these heinous murders.
Posted by: StreetWalker at Nov 28, 2008 12:00:09 AM
...is there some reason why this isn't as silly as it looks, or is this a joke?
Posted by: Eliezer Yudkowsky at Nov 28, 2008 1:03:10 AM
...is there some reason why this isn't as silly as it looks, or is this a joke?
It's a joke, but a serious one.
People who bet on Intrade are also betting that Intrade survives to pay off. It doesnt make economic sense to bet over long periods if you have to put your money in upfront, unless you can get very good odds. If the best you can do is double your money, then look at some more certain way to double your money, and how long it takes, and you shouldn't bet on anything that far off.
So it makes sense for people to think about the odds that Intrade will survive long enough. And when people see the odds that other people give it, that will tend to reassure them and help Intrade. And helping Intrade is the point, right?
If you bet that Intrade lasts some particular time, then you're implicitly betting that within that interval they shut down in a responsible way that pays off your bet. If it shuts down without that then you lose. I haven't checked how they do that, but if the money is held in escrow for you then you aren't betting that Intrade survives, you're betting that the escrow company survives.
I guess it's like the joke about the man who got his death sentence commuted on the promise to teach a cow to sing. You're betting that Intrade survives, you're betting that you survive, etc.
Posted by: J Thomas at Nov 28, 2008 7:50:48 AM
Barkley Rosser is correct - this is not Kashmir-related. There is plenty of Hindu-Muslim-Sikh tension throughout the entire country.
Posted by: meter at Nov 28, 2008 9:33:49 AM
@meter
Why the denial of the obvious? Of course there is Hindu-Muslim-Sikh-Christian tension within India. The recent public rape of a Christian nun is perhaps only the most shocking example.
But this isn't the MO of even SIMI, the homegrown Muslim student terrorist "resistance." We're looking at Day 3 here. This has Pakistan ISI all over it.
From this morning's NY Times:
"While there was still no definitive word on the identity or affiliation of the attackers, an Indian official said one assailant had been captured alive and was a Pakistani citizen."
I repeat the attack on Americans, Brits, and Jews is particularly pointed. I agree it's not about Kashmir.
I'll give you 80% it's directed by Talibanized elements of the Pakistani secret service, along with a cadre of local jihadi students, who have the necessary strong knowledge of Mumbai's streets and habits.
Posted by: StreetWalker at Nov 28, 2008 10:54:30 AM
Streetwalker, I wouldn't disagree with what you wrote. I imagine increased tensions are being fomented from cross-border elements. I only meant to highlight the notion that this has nothing to do with Kashmir.
Posted by: meter at Nov 28, 2008 11:24:04 AM
@meter
Yes, we agree. How rational of us. But seriously, I will go farther and say that I'll bet 65% that of the jihadi terrorists, at least 2 will also be British nationals of South Asian origin - they will hold UK passports. Gordon Brown et al still underestimates the amount of radicalism in Londonistan.
Posted by: StreetWalker at Nov 28, 2008 11:51:02 AM
Streetwalker,
If it is ISI, then it is, as you put it, "Talibanized elements" not under official control. Indeed, if this is the case, and it does seem that this group arrived by sea, it might be as much a strike against the new Zardari government that seems to be attacking more vigorously and working with the US covertly against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Waziristan.
OTOH, there are more Muslims in India than in Pakistan, they have become increasingly alienated, and the Deccan is a geographical region spread across eight states of India.
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Nov 29, 2008 10:05:41 AM
@Barkley
"not under official control"
Here is the underlying assumption that separates us: You seem to believe Zardari controls Pakistan. Whereas my strong impression is that the Talibanized ISI controls Pakistan, and Zardari is a puppet-show. I also don't put much stock in the made-up name of this supposed "local group;" that's also window-dressing.
With these premises laid bare, shall we move to agree?
Posted by: StreetWalker at Nov 29, 2008 11:32:34 AM
Streetwalker,
I do not agree that Zardari is a puppet show.
However, it is now clear that this operation did
come out of Pakistan, probably an offshoot of LeT,
which was originall supported by the ISI, although
officially banned in 2002. I would note that it is
an offshoot, as the LeT has as its ideology only
attacking Indian troops in Kashmir. These folks
clearly were in violation of that.
It remains unclear what, if any, links there are
between this group and any sub-group of the ISI.
But it does look to probably be linked to Kashmir,
as much to oppose the more pacifistic policy of
Zardari and to undermine it and his government (and
that of the more moderate government of Singh in India),
than anything else.
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