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Assorted links
1. Indian classical music links, including to YouTube
2. What would a modern depression look like?
3. How to take multiple choice exams
4. The acidity of the ocean is increasing very rapidly
5. Memories
Posted by Tyler Cowen on November 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
surprised he doesn't mentioned delayed retirements as part of a modern depression. some other thoughts:
-- suburbs may not depopulate; if anything the flow of people to artsy but expensive in-town living may reverse.
-- big increase in home schooling
-- big internet cutbacks due to decreased ad and VC budgets. woudl facebook survive?
-- sure, more TV watching, but lower quality, as shows dependent on dvd sales die.
-- political pressure would eventually swing back towards legalizing barebones health insurance policies. it could even swing to the right, against disability benefits etc, if there is a perception some groups of the not working are being favored.
I am surprised we're not already getting tuition cutbacks at private universities.
Posted by: DK at Nov 25, 2008 1:20:46 PM
What about pointers on how to *design* multiple choice exams?
Posted by: New fac at Nov 25, 2008 1:24:25 PM
As a principled libertarian, let me just say that I will conveniently conclude that the oceans are not acidifying, because the data are just so uncertain, but even if they're right, then it's just too late to do anything about it, and even if it's not, then acidified oceans are actually a good thing, and even if they're not, then anyone who gets f'ed over by it, can just go to hell for all I care.
Come on, folks! Don't buy in the acidic ocean scam! Their "solutions" will mean paying more for gas! You have the right to cheap gas, no matter what the consequences!
(Bonus points if you can guess who I'm mocking...)
Posted by: Silas Barta at Nov 25, 2008 1:41:39 PM
One aspect the ocean acidity article did not mention, if the CO2 is in the ocean, then it is not air and therefore not contributing to global warming.
Posted by: Marc at Nov 25, 2008 1:57:11 PM
We are all doomed! The end is near!
Posted by: at Nov 25, 2008 2:38:56 PM
As Mac said: if 10 times as much CO2 is being absorbed by the ocean as your model predicted, then (1) your model really sucks, and (2) since this is the biggest place for atmospheric CO2 to go, your model's predictions of atmospheric concentrations are now also suspect.
I find it extremely irritating that, in that article, they compare the rise found in the study only to that predicted for the next century, presumably by the same model, and not to the historical change. Also, in what units is this defined? "30 percent rise in ocean acidity in the past 200 years". When last I touched chemistry, people used pH for acidity. Do they mean CO2 concentration?
Posted by: improbable at Nov 25, 2008 2:56:23 PM
Following the fourth link...
Headline: Oceans Ten Times More Acidic Than Thought
First salient sentence: The acidity increased ten times quicker than climate models predicted.
Second salient sentence: Increased carbon dioxide emissions from human activities have led to a 30 percent rise in ocean acidity in the past 200 years.
Number of times actual pH's or acid content measures are given: 0.
Is it really so much to ask that a supposedly scientific article in a supposedly scientific publication contains, you know, some actual science? If not, could the headline editor at least have taken an 8th grade science survey class? Failing that, could the headline editor be taught to read?
Posted by: MikeP at Nov 25, 2008 3:03:20 PM
How many colleges will close in the next decade even without a recession or depression? I understand that the 2009 high school class is the top of the hs student bubble.
As a parent with a hs senior, it is amazing to me how many 4 year colleges are out there, especially small 4 year colleges with tuition and fees at least 25% to 50% higher than good state colleges.
Posted by: at Nov 25, 2008 3:35:44 PM
Ahh yes, the next manufactured crisis: Ocean Acidification.
Well done for bringing it to our attention.
Posted by: Worried dude at Nov 25, 2008 3:38:32 PM
Oceans Ten Times More Acidic Than Thought
Could it be that Thought is surprisingly basic?
Having access to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences at work (where the actually research was published), I could actually look up the missing data from the National Geographic Article.
First, the climate models referred to do suck. The authors essentially say so in their introduction, where they discuss weaknesses in the models used.
"The basis for these statements is model simulations that include only physical processes in the control of pH and that are calibrated from a single year of data. . ."
The models predict a 0.1 unit decrease in pH (increase in acidity) over the past century and a decrease of 0.2 units over the next century (predicted rate of change -0.0019 per year).
The researchers document a change from ~8.4 (2000) to ~8.2 (2008), from which they calculate a rate of change of -0.045, which is an order of magnitude greater than the model predicted, thus the "ten times" thing.
I've not had the time nor the inclination to review their statistics or models for validity, although I do have some questions about one of their later results dealing with biodiversity.
Posted by: Josh at Nov 25, 2008 3:43:24 PM
Dmitry Orlov compares the coming "collapse" (his term) of the US with that of the Soviet Union.
He's a bit over the top, and perhaps has an ax to grind, but convincingly argues that the Soviet Union was actually better prepared to cope with the aftermath of a severe economic collapse than the US would be.
Posted by: at Nov 25, 2008 8:07:07 PM
Silas Barta, you are mocking yourself. Are global warming fearmongers uncritical of everything they read, or just global warming fearmongers?
So, if the pH levels are rising faster than thought, then that also means that the oceans are better CO2 sinks than thought.
Caring about what happens to mollusks is different than believing that global warming is happening faster than thought. But, if you want to "change the engine of the world" for some mollusks, I guess that's your prerogative.
Incidentally, I was looking at this map
http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-gpw-population-map.gif
And yes, people be near the sea. But they also don't be in the cold. Interesting.
pH is a logarithmic scale. I have no idea what "30 times faster" means. Which means it was either written by someone who doesn't know what it means, or written for people who don't know what it means.
"Since 2000, scientists have measured the acidity of seawater around Tatoosh Island off the coast of Washington state. The acidity increased ten times quicker than climate models predicted."
So, 8 years of data? At one island?
This science stuff is hard. :(
Let's just build windmills
Posted by: Andrew at Nov 26, 2008 4:07:49 AM
I'm surprised that article on what a depression would look like wouldn't take any examples from Iceland.
I recently built myself a new computer (buying all the parts at newegg.com and putting them together myself), and I was thinking that if I were in Iceland, where forex is not allowed for individuals, and there is no domestic computer manufacturing industry, I would be totally unable to do this and would have to hope that I could craigslist new parts in Reykjavik, a highly unlikely and undesirable scenario. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2nd hand market flourish there in things that could once be imported (everything except cod and moss).
Posted by: Erik at Nov 26, 2008 9:40:45 AM
Let's see if I can follow the logic.
The oceans are acidifying faster than the models predict.
Therefore the models are lousy.
Therefore there's nothing to worry about.
Is that right?
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Posted by: aion kina at Mar 18, 2009 3:39:11 AM
you can find more and more this kind of paper
Posted by: green at May 15, 2009 3:58:32 AM
what are these books belong to?
Posted by: nick at May 15, 2009 4:00:32 AM
most of these are waste of time
Posted by: micky at May 15, 2009 4:02:07 AM
