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Nobel predictions
I used to always predict Fama but I can't this year. Thomas Sargent is worthy and he has done much more than "rational expectations" but that moniker will hurt his chances for now. Shiller is a possibility but maybe that looks like pandering to current events. And I don't think they will pick anyone who was on the board of A.I.G., at least not this year.
Here are my old picks. This still wouldn't be a bad year for Tirole, Williamson, or anyone else who worked on agency problems. It seems those problems matter. And there is still environmental economics. Or the "surprising European who is undervalued by Americans" pick, a'la Maurice Allais or Trygve Haavelmo.
What do you predict? Please tell us in the comments.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 9, 2008 at 09:17 AM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
I dunno, my money is still on Feldstein, even with AIG.
Or maybe Paul Romer
Posted by: pants at Oct 9, 2008 9:27:40 AM
Tirole or Williamson winning would make me happy.
Posted by: londenio at Oct 9, 2008 9:27:57 AM
Holmstrom, Tirole, Milgrom
Posted by: at Oct 9, 2008 9:38:17 AM
Eugene Fama... Seriously, when?
Posted by: C.Hessenflow at Oct 9, 2008 9:43:54 AM
I think that every year around this time I mention Peter Diamond's name.
Posted by: Andrew John at Oct 9, 2008 9:50:32 AM
Alchian and Demsetz. Alchian is 94. He doesn't have much longer.
Posted by: Eli at Oct 9, 2008 9:54:59 AM
Feldstein, Barro, Tirole, Romer
Barro is most deserving of the prize today among those who have not won it.
The person I'd really like to see win it is Tullock, but I doubt he ever will.
Posted by: dave smith at Oct 9, 2008 10:06:10 AM
I'd be happy if Jagdish Bhagwati wins it.
Posted by: Neel at Oct 9, 2008 10:22:00 AM
I'll be happy if Jagdish Bhagwati wins it.
Posted by: Neel at Oct 9, 2008 10:26:44 AM
Not a prediction, but a wish: Lionel McKenzie & Edmond Malinvaud.
Posted by: Jim at Oct 9, 2008 10:34:57 AM
Bill Bonner has been more impressive than any of the PHD's over the last few years...here is one of his proteges. His explantion of what is going is interesting.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/stansberry/oct072008.html
Posted by: gabe at Oct 9, 2008 10:53:44 AM
I really don't think they would have a theory pick two years in a row. So that means no Tirole, Holmstrom or Milgrom. I'd say Hansen and Sargent have a good shot.
Posted by: me at Oct 9, 2008 10:55:46 AM
Trygve Haavelmo won the prize in 1989.
I also think Lionel McKenzie has been unjustly overlooked. But I don't feel confident in predicting he will now be honored... Paul Romer is another strong candidate, I think.
Posted by: Dimitrios Diamantaras at Oct 9, 2008 11:24:05 AM
Drat! Forget my comment on Haavelmo, I misread your post. Sorry.
Posted by: Dimitrios Diamantaras at Oct 9, 2008 11:29:43 AM
Fama, definitely, your capitulation is the signal that's it's his time.
Posted by: DK at Oct 9, 2008 11:30:04 AM
I can't believe Fama hasn't won it yet... how many more years will he be passed over?
Barro, Feldstein, possibly Richard Thaler...
Posted by: Tim L. at Oct 9, 2008 11:48:25 AM
I know 99 percent of readers will object.This year give it to a post-Keynesian who has studied well financial instability,liquidity,expectations,uncertainty and the macroeconomy-Harcourt,Davidson,Kregel,Chick.I also epect the names like Baumol, Williamson,Bhagvathi,Dixit from the micro side.
Posted by: GVV at Oct 9, 2008 11:54:30 AM
Franchise Bidding for Natural Monopolies -- in General and with Respect to CATV should be required reading for any Econ Ph.D. student before they take the theory sequence.
Posted by: ogmb at Oct 9, 2008 12:12:42 PM
If Sargent wins it does he get paired with Lars Hansen?
Posted by: Jar Jar Binks at Oct 9, 2008 12:22:31 PM
I would go for Robert Barro.
Posted by: marounov at Oct 9, 2008 12:44:50 PM
First pick is Barro. I'll pick Barro every year til he gets it - I'm afraid that the one year I do'nt he'll win and I want the bragging rights!
My dark horse picks are Dixit and Krugman, though.
How far in advance does the committee pick? The meltdown began last year, so presumably even if they decided earlier this year it could be affected by current events, but have they historically shown to be sensitive to even broadly defined current events?
Posted by: jason voorhees at Oct 9, 2008 1:31:21 PM
Micro-econometricians a la McFadden and Heckman has not been recognized for a while. Maybe the prize would go to someone with empirical work, but not Macro.
Posted by: londenio at Oct 9, 2008 1:53:53 PM
I'll repeat my comments from earlier, just
the main picks, which I put up on econospeak
weeks ago. Five sets of likelies for this year.
1) Bhagwati and Dixit with somebody else
for trade
2) Baumol, for lots of stuff
3) Tullock and Krueger, possibly with a third,
maybe Kornai, for rent seeking
4) Fama with Thaler and or Mandelbrot for
finance. No way Fama gets it alone this year.
5) Easterlin for happiness studies.
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Oct 9, 2008 3:54:39 PM
How far in advance does the committee pick?
t = ε.
Posted by: ogmb at Oct 9, 2008 3:58:50 PM
Lars Peter Hansen for GMM.
Posted by: izzy at Oct 9, 2008 4:05:29 PM
