« Credit as an option | Main | Some consensus »
How to get people to vote
KAHNEMAN: ...there are those effects that are small at the margin that can change election results.
You call and ask people ahead of time, "Will you vote?". That's all. "Do you intend to vote?". That increases voting participation substantially, and you can measure it. It's a completely trivial manipulation, but saying 'Yes' to a stranger, "I will vote" ...
MYHRVOLD: But to Elon's point, suppose you had the choice of calling up and saying, "Are you going to vote?", so you prime them to vote, versus exhorting them to vote.
KAHNEMAN: The prime could very well work better than the exhortation because exhortation is going to induce resistance, whereas the prime‚ the mild embarrassment causes you to make what feels like a commitment, and the commitment, if it's sufficiently precise, is going to have an effect on behavior.
THALER: If you ask them when they're going to vote, and how they're going to get there, that increases voting.
KAHNEMAN: And where.
Here is the whole dialogue, on the importance of the environment and priming effects for human psychology; it is very interesting throughout. I thank Stephen Morrow for the pointer.
So how do you get some people not to vote?
Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 24, 2008 at 08:21 AM in Science | Permalink
Comments
Rope and chains.
Or, field a decrepit and morally bankrupt candidate with a totally incompetent running mate. That might do it.
Posted by: meter at Oct 24, 2008 8:35:34 AM
meter,
"totally incompetent running mate. That might do it"
are we talking about Palin or Biden because at this point they seem to both fit the bill.
Posted by: sean at Oct 24, 2008 8:56:03 AM
Exactly. This whole get out the vote thing annoys me to no end. I want less voting, not more. I assume that the marginal voter is less informed than the average voter, and thus by expanding the voter pool, the average voter becomes less and less informed. This is not a good thing.
Posted by: joe at Oct 24, 2008 8:58:46 AM
So how do you get some people not to vote?
exhortation is going to induce resistance
Everyone, start badgering people to vote!
Posted by: Hei Lun Chan at Oct 24, 2008 9:02:35 AM
"That increases voting participation substantially, and you can measure it."
What do the measurements say? What is a "substantial increase"?
Posted by: JDM at Oct 24, 2008 9:07:48 AM
Posted by: jay at Oct 24, 2008 9:12:48 AM
Lure them into a room with Bryan Caplan for an hour.
Posted by: gerry lindgren at Oct 24, 2008 9:17:34 AM
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0691129428/marginalrevol-20
Posted by: Rolo Tomasi at Oct 24, 2008 9:17:36 AM
I don't know if publishing academic philosophy on duties not to vote is much help for that, but if it is, I'm doing my part.
Posted by: Jason Brennan at Oct 24, 2008 9:19:32 AM
Biden's made some poor statements in his career, but he's at least 60 IQ points above Palin. I'll stick with the smart guy who is conversant on more than one issue (drilling oil).
I wouldn't trust that woman to pump my gas.
Posted by: meter at Oct 24, 2008 9:33:28 AM
I bet asking this question would make some people not vote:
"Would you be willing to stand in line for two hours on Tuesday before you vote?"
Or, perhaps:
"If people were paid to vote, how much do you think they should get paid?"
Posted by: Gavin Andresen at Oct 24, 2008 9:37:03 AM
"Do you feel that your vote will matter in this election?"
Posted by: Andy at Oct 24, 2008 9:48:58 AM
he's at least 60 IQ points above Palin.
Uh, not sure about that.
Biden's always reminded me of the folks who finished in the bottom of my law school class and were big BSrs. And that is not a compliment to the good people of Delaware.
Obama reminds me of the slick talking BSrs who finished at the top of my law school class. And that's not a compliment.
(I was a blue collar worker for more than a decade and finished in the top 15% of my law school class. And that's not a compliment.)
McCain reminds me of the former fighter pilot in my law school class who went on to become a very good trial lawyer for a few years and then faded away. Just an observation.
Palin reminds me of a few women in my law school class who others underestimated to their later detriment. And that IS a compliment.
I like it when coastal elites underestimate the hicks from the sticks.
Posted by: at Oct 24, 2008 10:12:51 AM
Those are classic sales techniques, nothing new here at all. If they were on the fence about voting, pushing them to vote is likely to cause them not to. That's different, BTW, than giving them reasons to vote. Telling someone they ought to vote because you think they should is a sure fire way of turning them off to the process.
Isaac Crawford
Posted by: Isaac Crawford at Oct 24, 2008 10:47:53 AM
I'm not the kind of person who puts too much stock in educational (or any other) pedigree. I know understated intelligence when I see it - I'm not fooled by accents, mannerisms or the stereotypes that usually follow.
In short, you're *dead wrong* on Palin. This woman is dangerously incompetent and most Americans know it. Not to mention she's dishonest and corrupt, if that sort of thing matters to you.
Posted by: meter at Oct 24, 2008 10:50:51 AM
Some political science graduate student should figure out what percentage of the people will be voting in a precient where there is at least one competative election on the ballot. Where I live there is not a single election that polls indicate is within 10 percentage points.
Why is it important for people to vote during landslides?
Posted by: superdestroyer at Oct 24, 2008 11:05:07 AM
Ask them:
"Do they check for unpaid parking tickets and other city fines when you vote?"
"If you have a warrant for your arrest, do they pass along your name to the police when you sign in at the polling location?"
"Employers can currently dock the pay or assign extra work to citizens who take time off to vote. Do you think this should be disallowed?"
"How much do you pay for parking at the voting location? Do you normally have trouble finding cheap parking during big events?"
Posted by: Nathan Whitehead at Oct 24, 2008 12:30:11 PM
Why should we encourage people who are uninterested to vote? If they need to be encouraged to vote, how much more would they need to be encouraged to make an informed vote?
I'd rather not increase the number of ignorant voters...
Posted by: CJS at Oct 24, 2008 12:38:37 PM
If only this worked for the politicians we're supposed to vote for.
"Mr Obama, do you intend to cut wasteful spending?"
Posted by: Acton. at Oct 24, 2008 1:16:49 PM
I think we have to make a distinction between genuinely informed voters, and those who have merely been exposed to advertising campaigns.
As the 'marginal voter' is someone who either hasn't been exposed to the advertising, or who has been exposed and not persuaded, we would probably do better by having *only* marginal voters cast their ballots.
Posted by: Caledonian at Oct 24, 2008 1:19:15 PM
dishonest and corrupt
that describes politicians generally.
Anyone who believes the description only applies to members of the "other" party is either naive or an ideologue.
Posted by: at Oct 24, 2008 1:25:59 PM
Biden's made some poor statements in his career, but he's at least 60 IQ points above Palin.
That would make Palin severely retarded, probably around 60 IQ. That seems implausible.
I was amused by "Or, field a decrepit and morally bankrupt candidate with a totally incompetent running mate." Remove the "decrepit" and your name and I would have had no idea which ticket you were referring to.
I'm always bewildered by the emphasis on increasing voter turnout instead of voter knowledge.
Posted by: Careless at Oct 24, 2008 1:29:17 PM
We also want to make a distinction between people who are informed enough to know what candidates stand for, and people who are informed enough to be able to successfully evaluate whether the candidates' proposed policies will in fact tend to promote their proposed ends.
Posted by: Jason Brennan at Oct 24, 2008 1:34:36 PM
We should pay them not to vote.
Posted by: Andrew at Oct 24, 2008 1:53:57 PM
Everything I need to know, I learned from Cialdini. Oh, and don't forget "Vote or Die" (South Park version). They totally covered this one.
Posted by: BoscoH at Oct 24, 2008 2:13:01 PM
