Marginal Revolution

The European collective response

It turns out there won't be one.  In fact we are seeing the opposite:

"We will work cooperatively and in a coordinated way within the European Union and with our international partners," it [the statement] added. "In the spirit of close cooperation within the European Union, we will ensure that potential cross-border effects of national decisions are taken into consideration."

This language was seen as a rebuke to Ireland, which last week decided to offer guarantees to all Irish depositors. The decision, taken unilaterally, irked Brown and his lieutenants in London, who feared it might lead Britons to pull their money out of British banks and put it in Irish banks instead to enjoy the guarantee.

British depositors were already crowding to get into the nationalized Northern Rock but they were turned away at the proverbial door.  Other news is that the German government-led bank consortium to rescue Hypo Bank has fallen apart, not a good sign.  The German government has today moved to guarantee all "private savings deposits" [private Sparanlagen], also not a good sign.  Which other countries will now follow suit?  All of them?  Europe as a whole lacks a safe asset as focal, liquid, and available as T-Bills and now that is becoming a problem.

Wikipedia on reverse auctions

Gartner's keys to success as a supplier in reverse auctions are: (a) Thorough preparation – it's essential to know your costs, your suppliers, and your market to the greatest extent possible – tiny details can make the difference between winning and losing, and between being profitable or not; (b) Reverse auctions should be largely kept to the supply of commodity products rather than proprietary ones; and (c) Having a strong, competent bidder leading your effort at the time of the auction, with clear guidelines on when to bid and when to fold is essential.

Anticipating Hank Paulson, Gartner adds:

"I know most people don't look at reverse auctions positively, but we see them as a process that makes you better,"

Here is the link.  The article will soon be much longer.  Here is a website devoted to summarizing the research against reverse auctions; it appears unrelated to critiques of Paulson and the Paulson plan.  It seems to be fighting a personal war and so I doubt its objectivity:

The bottom line is BUYERS should not use reverse auctions because the amount of savings that can actually be achieved is greatly overstated. In addition, reverse auctions create numerous other problems for buyers.  SELLERS should not participate in reverse auctions because there is nothing in it for them; especially incumbent suppliers. In almost every case, neither buyers nor sellers benefit from this purchasing tool because it is an unhealthy continuation of zero sum power-based bargaining that degrades the competitiveness of both parties. Reverse auctions are undeniably a bad purchasing practice and a wrong approach to spend management.

I hope to soon consider other research on reverse auctions.

Regulation, a dialogue with Warren Buffett

Via Craig Newmark:

QUICK: If you imagine where things will go with Fannie and Freddie, and you think about the regulators, where were the regulators for what was happening, and can something like this be prevented from happening again?

Mr. BUFFETT: Well, it's really an incredible case study in regulation
because something called OFHEO was set up in 1992 by Congress, and the sole job of OFHEO was to watch over Fannie and Freddie, someone to watch over them. And they were there to evaluate the soundness and the accounting and all of that. Two companies were all they had to regulate. OFHEO has over 200 employees now. They have a budget now that's $65 million a year, and all they have to do is look at two companies. I mean, you know, I look at more than two companies.

QUICK: Mm-hmm.

Mr. BUFFETT: And they sat there, made reports to the Congress, you can get them on the Internet, every year. And, in fact, they reported to Sarbanes and Oxley every year. And they went--wrote 100 page reports, and they said, 'We've looked at these people and their standards are fine and their directors are fine and everything was fine.' And then all of a sudden you had two of the greatest accounting misstatements in history. You had all kinds of management malfeasance, and it all came out. And, of course, the classic thing was that after it all came out, OFHEO wrote a 350--340 page report examining what went wrong, and they blamed the management, they blamed the directors, they blamed the audit committee. They didn't have a word in there about themselves, and they're the ones that 200 people were going to work every day with just two companies to think about. It just shows the problems of regulation.

QUICK: That sounds like an argument against regulation, though. Is that what you're saying?

Mr. BUFFETT: It's an argument explaining--it's an argument that managing complex financial institutions where the management wants to deceive you can be very, very difficult.

Here is a good article on what the mortgage agencies have been up to.