Silly me

I’d like to repeat how surprised I am at the size of the gains from drilling, or at least what appears to be the best current estimate of such gains.  What happened is simple.  I read people writing "Price won’t go down much from drilling, therefore the gains are small," in various ways.  That is a non sequitur because there is producer surplus as well!  I committed a simple error.  Yet again.  And I committed this error because it fit in with my (nonetheless largely correct) preconception of politicians as bozos who will say anything for political gain or to sound good on TV.

Addendum: An Op-Ed on the topic.  And here’s a skeptical Andrew Sullivan reader.  Like me, it doesn’t seem he ever tried to look for a number.