Marginal Revolution

Econometrics of Bigfoot and UFOs

Peter Leeson is posting over at Freakonomics on the econometrics of bigfoot and ufos, he finds that states with a lot of ufo sightings also have a lot of bigfoot sightings.  Unfortunately, Leeson draws entirely wrong conclusions from his research.  If he wants to explain his results, my young colleague needs to study the classics. 

Assorted links

1. Anarchism and Justice, by Roy A. Childs, or at least part of it.  Here is more related material, all via David Boaz.

2. Joe Nocera on The Wall Street Journal.

3. Peter Leeson guest blogs for Freakonomics; I very much like his first post on UFOs.

4. New "ideas blog" at NYT; a nice try and it may get better but it still lacks a voice.

5. Bus reform in Santiago: a sad story.

6. Is commitment-phobia genetic?

Sorry people, I can't resist

Which means I've been arguing this with Natasha.  But I'd like to point out: a) none of the commentators know the actual circumstances behind Bristol's pregnancy, b) it's unlikely the father was actually forced to marry Bristol; maybe he thought it was the right thing to do, c) I am very glad they are having the baby, noting that I do also favor birth control, d) There is and should be a general rule to treat candidates' children with the utmost respect, e) I fully understand that John McCain needs to read Adam Smith on the division of labor, overconfidence, and also wise decision-making, f) when an attractive woman is criticized by less attractive men, large segments of the public respond accordingly, g) Obama is wise to say nothing about this, h) Palin should not be required to document every claim she makes about her personal life and it is little short of outrageous to demand gynecological information from her, and, most of all i) without families like this our nation would have no chance of affording the social welfare programs proposed by the Democratic Party.

I love the United States of America.

Addendum: Hail Kevin Drum, but read his commentators.

The Minnesota Somali autism puzzle

Somali students comprise only 6 percent of the Minneapolis school system, but one-quarter of the children in the city’s early childhood autism programs. Health officials are baffled.

Here is more.  Here is a follow-up story.  Oddly Somali families in Sweden call autism "the Swedish disease."  There hasn't been thimerosal in vaccines for some time plus that would not explain the higher incidence of autism among these groups of Somali children.  It also seems that the Somali kids have especially severe cases of autism.

So what is the environmental trigger?  A combined lack of sunlight and vitamin D activation is the only real hypothesis I can find. 

Mother's testosterone levels, if high, can influence a male child to extreme maturational delay. (A child's maturation rate is set at six weeks before birth.) If the mother has immigrated from an equatorial region with consistent diurnal light cycles of 30% to a relatively extreme northern climate, the influence of light on the pineal gland influencing testosterone levels can dramatically skew mothers testosterone. The question is, do the Minnesota Somali autistic children's birthday's congregate in certain seasons. If so, this hypothesis becomes more likely. See http://www.neoteny.org/?cat=7, particularly http://www.neoteny.org/?p=85.

Yet even that sounds screwy to me (at least it's testable), noting that if you pursue the links you will not find mainstream science at the end of the tunnel.  But the independent appearance of the phenomenon in Sweden and Minneapolis suggests it isn't just a statistical fluke.  And the numerous Somali immigrants in Virginia don't seem to have the same problems. 

Here are some further readings.  Here is a speculation that autism rates are higher in immigrant communities more generally.  Addendum: Here is more on Sweden.

My Favorite Things Alaska

All this attention is being devoted to Alaska, so I thought I should do my own evaluation.  Note in advance that politicians don't usually make these lists, they're not "favorite" enough for me.  And enough about her for now anyway (though I'll note in passing, in response to Andrew Sullivan and others, that if voters want to like her, they'll simply refuse to see McCain in the properly cynical light); but no more comments on this issue for now as I want the blogosphere back!

1. Novel, set in: Jack London's Call of the Wild or White Fang are the obvious choices.  Did you know that London's fiction was very widely read in the former Soviet Union?

2. Music: There's Jewel and Bette Midler and maybe you're all wondering which one I will pick.  But the excellent Kevin Johansen, also associated with Buenos Aires I might add, is the proverbial rabbit from the hat.  Ha! 

3. Movie, set in: Both Never Cry Wolf and Grizzly Man are very good; the former had a lead character named Tyler before the name became fashionable.  And isn't Nanook of the North set in Alaska?  Into the Wild is another pick and I doubt if I have exhausted the list.

4. Basketball player: Carlos Boozer is from Juneau.

5. Sculpture: Alaska is probably #1 in the entire United States once you consider the indigenous peoples.  The best works are from the 1950s and 60s and they are not always attributable.  My personal favorite is Thomassie Annanok but of course that is a matter of taste.  Ingo Hessel's book on Inuit Art is a favorite of mine, noting that it focuses more on Canada than Alaska.

6. Other arts: The Tlingit (some of whom live in Canada) have excellent totem poles, boxes, and carvings.  The Haida are another rich artistic tradition.

7. Novel, set in: Michael Chabon's The Yiddish Policeman's Union is the obvious pick plus I hear The Cloud Atlas (The Liam Callanan book, not the David Mitchell one, which is very good but not connected to Alaska) is good.

8. Travel book, set in: Jonathan Raban's Passage to Juneau: A Sea and its Meanings is lovely.  I've never read John Muir's Travels in Alaska but it is likely a contender.

9. Blogger: Hail Ben Muse of Alaska, advocate of free trade!

The bottom line: It relies too much on "set in," but overall the list is better than I had been expecting.  Sadly, Alaska is the one American state I have yet to visit.