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Sarah Palin
Now over 80 percent in the betting markets. And here is the gossip behind that. Electorally this is a very effective pick I think (if indeed it is true), though it is hard for me to imagine a President with five (young) kids.
Addendum: No, that wording isn't quite right. How should I put this...?
Second addendum: Her stock in the market is now plummeting, now down to about 35, as there is a report she is still in Alaska. I am told that last night Pawlenty was up to about 85 but then fell dramatically as well. It has been a wild ride in this market. And now Palin is back up again, etc. Whatever. Now it's at 96. Now confirmed.
More: Credible signals, in one link or less.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 29, 2008 at 09:04 AM in Political Science | Permalink
Comments
Looks like the betting markets were almost completely wagged by the headlines, eh? I'd mark this down as a huge failure for prediction markets.
Posted by: Hopefully Anonymous at Aug 29, 2008 9:09:31 AM
What are you talking about? The only contract I see that's over 80 percent is McCain as the Republican nominee.
Posted by: David at Aug 29, 2008 9:12:52 AM
ABCNews says she's in Alaska, not on a plane to Ohio:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/mccain-vp-conte.html
Posted by: Josh at Aug 29, 2008 9:13:50 AM
NOOOOOO!!! I saw the flighttracker info about the chartered flight from Anchorage to near-Dayton but did not buy on that info! ARGGG!!!
Posted by: a person at Aug 29, 2008 9:33:41 AM
A person, you can still ride it up from 59 to 100. She was trading at 2 at 2 am this morning, with Pawlenty in the 70s. I agree: a huge prediction-market failure.
Posted by: Response to a person at Aug 29, 2008 9:39:31 AM
Why should five kids matter, especially when two of them are over 18?
Posted by: Ted at Aug 29, 2008 9:40:35 AM
It's not a failure. All these do is aggregate existing information, of which there's probably been very little. Maybe Obama's speech is responsible for the shift in McCain's thinking.
Posted by: jason voorhees at Aug 29, 2008 9:47:12 AM
She's already back up to 80 as of 8:57am CST. Pawlenty's not budging from 2. There's been some reports that he's already been told he is not going to be picked, so maybe that why his has plummeted and is staying down. Ridge and Lieberman are in close second, and even then are only pulling 10 apiece.
Posted by: jason voorhees at Aug 29, 2008 9:59:10 AM
I think the veepstakes has been an interesting demonstration of a particular case where prediction markets fail. Since the McCain camp didn't leak, and presumbaly didn't trade on InTrade either, the market didn't reflect any legitimately new private information. All it did was reflect the best, debiased consensus, which is good enough but not powerfully predictive. It sort of reminds me of the obstacles to using prediction markets for forecasting events like hurricnase or earthquakes. Except for maybe the guys on the storm chase flights, nobody has truly private information on the path of the hurricane. All the market is doing is reflecting the median expectation.
Posted by: John Sterling at Aug 29, 2008 10:10:30 AM
LOL to everyone claiming that this is a prediction market failure.
Posted by: Mercutio.Mont at Aug 29, 2008 10:15:52 AM
I have my money split between John Kasich and Meg Whitman. Regardless of the choice, I am very impressed that they've kept a lid on who it is. The Dems couldn't keep a secret if none of them knew what it was!
Posted by: BoscoH at Aug 29, 2008 10:20:26 AM
LOL. LOL, to everyone. LOL, indeed. ????
Posted by: John Sterling at Aug 29, 2008 10:23:23 AM
I was so hoping that it would be Romney (I'm a democrat). Palin is a very exciting pick and to me it indicates that McCain's campaign is cognizant that they have to take big risks if they want to win in this electoral environment. The combined ages of the democratic and republican tickets are now within 4 years of each other.
Posted by: Michael Foody at Aug 29, 2008 10:36:51 AM
Well, there goes McCain's "Obama lacks experience" line of attack. She's more of a 100% biography candidate than Obama, and McCain is no spring chicken. Odd pick.
Posted by: wugong at Aug 29, 2008 10:47:51 AM
Spin: Since McCain knows he's going down, he's giving Palin national exposure for future national campaigns.
(I actually think she's fine(*), and I've heard she's nice ... but while the corruption-busting is good, it is still a light resume.)
* - deliberately ambiguous
Posted by: odograph at Aug 29, 2008 11:03:06 AM
I don't see how this could do anything but hurt the MccCain campaign. Hopefully Foxnews will clue me in on why this was such a good idea.
Posted by: brainwarped at Aug 29, 2008 11:15:20 AM
Any relation to Michael Palin? Maybe we can get Biggus Dickus as Secretary of State.
Posted by: Daniel Klein at Aug 29, 2008 11:22:12 AM
Why isn't it she a good pick? She has way more executive experience than Obama (who has none). After all, she is the Cief Executive of a State. Obama has spent 143 days in the Senate and has never accomplished anything in his political career except votong 'present'. Sarah Palin has a list of accomplishments that Obama could only wish for. She's a dynamo and a great pick. I've been researching her for months and she has it all.
Posted by: Dave H. at Aug 29, 2008 11:22:30 AM
How is this an "electorally effective" pick?. Alaska's electoral votes were in jeopardy? If Obama isn't qualified to be president how is she qualified to assume the role should something happen to McCain at age 72?
She is an unknown.
Can't wait for the debates.
Posted by: luke at Aug 29, 2008 11:24:51 AM
great choice McCain! Couldn't be happier... can we be looking at a landslide victory! Everything about her is great, she is even beautiful!
Steve
http://www.the-irn.com
Posted by: Steve at Aug 29, 2008 11:41:02 AM
McCain confirms to me once again, notwithstanding his academic record at the Naval Academy, that he's a grade A moron. He aims to outdo the Democrats at their own game, is that right? Romney is too safe and boring a pick the Maverick needs to really razzle and dazzle 'em at the New York Times. No, really, the Republican party now can exploit some ethnic group/gender politics of its own!
Posted by: Billare at Aug 29, 2008 11:42:22 AM
Sara is going to steal the "first female in the White House" position from Hillary. There are many who wanted a woman on the ticket more than Hillary's politics.
Hillary was right to ask her supporters if they were supporting her, or the needs of the nation.
I think that this is predominately a gender choice personally targeting Hillary supporters.
Posted by: Al at Aug 29, 2008 11:44:34 AM
No downside for picking her.
I've watched some youtubes of interviews, and she's sharp.
She'll bring some women into the McCain camp (how much difference would 1-2% make?)
Oh, she's smokin' hot, too. Which of course doesn't matter.
Posted by: dave smith at Aug 29, 2008 11:45:29 AM
Luke? They're called "Women". I'm sure you've heard of them.
Well, I THINK you've heard of them.
You should've, at least.
Sarah Palin is the kind of woman most feminists- hell, most AMERICANS, male or female- wish they were: self-made, sportscaster, beauty-pageant winner, Mayor, Governor on an anti-corruption ticket, wife, and mother. She makes Michelle Obama look like... well, a Equal Opportunity hire.
Posted by: DaveP. at Aug 29, 2008 11:45:44 AM
A prediction market is a failure if there are other available information sources that did a better job. If you want to argue that this prediction market was a failure, it is not enough to say that the outcome was a surprise to the market. You also have to identify someone who wasn't surprised.
Posted by: mobile at Aug 29, 2008 11:52:31 AM
