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Assorted links
1. Fifty outstanding translations, via Bookslut.
2. The cost of being Batman, via www.geekpress.com
3. More on the file-sharing controversy
4. The new "Big Mac" index, so to speak
5. An economic theory of excess defensiveness
Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 17, 2008 at 04:32 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
What about the cost of being Joker?
Posted by: Sebastian Flyte at Jul 17, 2008 4:53:30 PM
The Batman article says that the probability of a person having the resources to become Batman is roughly the probability of becoming an olympic athlete times the probability of becoming a billionaire. For kicks, let's try that out:
Using optimistic numbers from the US, where there are more pro athletes and billionaires than anywhere in the world
- There are 432 billionaires in the US (according to Forbes)
- US population 301 million.
- I have no figures for the whole world, or olympians specifically, but apparently there are 17,000 professional athletes in the US (http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=3846441).
So, 432/301 million times 17000 / 301 million = 8x10^-11
Assuming the distribution is well behaved and I used my calculator right, there is a mean of 0.02 people capable of being Batman in the US. Using the same probability for the worlds 6.6 billion people, the mean is 0.5 people.
Realistically, the billionaire criteria may not need to be so stringent, maybe 500 million is enough, there are a lot more of those. But then you might as well get into figuring out the dependence between being an athlete and being a very rich and it gets complicated...
Posted by: Chris at Jul 17, 2008 8:19:52 PM
He forgot geniuses. You need the probability of being smart enough to get into a top 10 university as well. Batman is really smart, too.
Posted by: Mo at Jul 17, 2008 8:35:18 PM
It's really pretty appalling that the journals, the press, and the courts let Oberholzer-Gee and Strumpf get away with deriving conclusions from a confidential data set. It looks like after several years, the economics discipline might get the science right. With examples like this, it makes me wonder why more people aren't very hesitant about apparent consensuses on global warming before there's been adequate time for dissenting views to emerge.
Posted by: Brad Hutchings at Jul 17, 2008 8:44:23 PM
But, what is the probability the person who has the resources to become Batman becomes Batman?
Will Batman arrive when the population reaches 13.2 billion?
Posted by: Mike at Jul 17, 2008 8:46:25 PM
Any potential Batmans (Batmen?) need to be already rich by the time they hit young adulthood. Proto-Batman would need to be rich enough to be able to not work for a living so he can spend all his time training, and do so at a young age since if he starts training when he's 30 instead of 20, he'll already be pass his prime when his training is done. Tiger Woods comes as close as anyone to meeting those qualifications.
And as Mo points out above, he'd also need to be super smart. Given that a person to become Batman would need to:
-inherit a billion dollars at a young age,
-be very physically gifted, and
-be very intelligent,
I'd say that the odds are better of an orphan from a distant planet with a red sun landing here on earth.
Posted by: Hei Lun Chan at Jul 17, 2008 9:10:08 PM
"With examples like this, it makes me wonder why more people aren't very hesitant about apparent consensuses on global warming before there's been adequate time for dissenting views to emerge."
What's the connection here? Are you suggesting that global-warming scientists are relying on confidential data sets that they aren't disclosing to all the anti-global-warming scientists? So once the real numbers on global temperature come out, I guess we'll realize that global warming was all a hoax? What a crock.
Do you even pause before you write, or is it just like: "ah, example of scientists making a mistake -- I can use this as evidence that global warming must be false?"
Posted by: K. Williams at Jul 18, 2008 7:27:28 AM
@K. WIlliams: Reading comprehension much? I urge general skepticism on most things scientific and technological until the process has had time to sort them out. The same skepticism that keeps my conscience clear driving an SUV and eating steak also saved me hours in line and headaches over getting an iPhone. I'd bet that in 2020, the so-called consensus on global warming is at least a lot more nuanced than it is today, if not completely different. So I'll be happy to resist the knee-jerk "solutions" until it sorts itself out a little more.
To be clear, I trust the scientific process. I recognize that many participants in it have axes to grind, agendas, imperfect perspectives, questionable incentives, etc. But I trust that with time, the process will get the science right. I'd like to see a little more process before handing over my wealth.
Posted by: Brad Hutchings at Jul 18, 2008 9:07:39 AM
Life and fate is not a complete translation as many american translations.They really believe they know bether than the author. The translation of Menander in penguin must be the worst ever .
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