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What's a New York Times ad worth for a book?
Dani Rodrik tries an experiment:
Princeton University Press ran a small ad for my book last Sunday in the New York Times book review. I was curious if it would have any effect on sales, so I ran a little experiment. I checked the book's sales ranking in amazon.com at periodic intervals starting on Saturday afternoon.
But the ad didn't matter so much (see also the comments on the post). I would note a few points of speculation:
1. Below the top tier, a book can rise rapidly through the Amazon rankings without selling so many extra copies.
2. Amazon buyers are better educated and not representative of the market as a whole.
3. It is an open question whether the Amazon rankings are "honest," or strategically designed to sell what is hot at the moment, by making it look especially hot.
4. The best question to ask is: Is your book in Wal-Mart and Costco?
5. The next best metric is to check its location in Barnes and Noble.
6. Success of a book in Borders is less representative of overall success than it used to be; Borders (which is on the verge of going under, I might add) is now closer to an "indie" book store in many ways than it is to B&N.
Addendum: Chug writes in the comments: "display ads for books are not to sell books. they are for good relations between the publisher and the author...."
Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 30, 2008 at 07:12 AM in Books | Permalink
Comments
Tyler-
Can you elaborate on your comment that Borders "is now closer to an "indie" book store in many ways than it is to B&N"?
I much prefer Borders to B&N, but I can't put my finger on why; perhaps your sense of its indie-ness will explain.
CP
Posted by: carpundit at Apr 30, 2008 9:23:19 AM
In my experience, Borders employees are more likely to be able to help you find "that book that came out about two years ago with the red cover by that British woman who writes novels about academia."
Barnes & Noble employees are perfectly capable of typing the name or author of a book into their computer, and can give you an answer as long as you can provide them the correct spelling of "Michener."
Posted by: Rich B. at Apr 30, 2008 9:48:57 AM
You're certainly correct for the connection between Amazon rankings and book sales. Here's a tool you can use to translate an Amazon ranking into an equivalent number of book sales to confirm that's the case - it works pretty well for rankings below the Top 100, which can have some pretty asymptotic characteristics.
Posted by: Ironman at Apr 30, 2008 10:08:25 AM
In regards to speculation #2, the question is not if Amazon users are more educated that the book market as a whole. I would agree that they are. However, the more pertinent question is are the users of Amazon more educated than those in the market for YOUR BOOK. I would agree that Amazon users are not representative of the book market, but I speculate that it is the opposite - Amazon users as a whole are less educated than the average reader of your book and books of its kind.
Posted by: Zach at Apr 30, 2008 10:35:57 AM
I live in Wal-Mart territory, and I once sat on a plane next to a guy who works for a publishing house and tries to place books in Wal-Mart. I asked him what difference Wal-Mart made over Barnes & Noble. He said, "There's no comparison. If I get a book in Barnes & Noble, it might sell five thousand copies. If I get a book in Wal-Mart, it will sell five HUNDRED thousand copies."
Posted by: Stuart Buck at Apr 30, 2008 10:40:28 AM
I would argue that you should try the same experiment with appearances on C-span2's book programming, or on talk radio, especially a nationally syndicated show. I have some experience with both of these and I can tell you that the Amazon ranking soars after a C-span appearance or syndicated radio. The real lesson here may be that print can no longer sell books the way it used to, ironically.
Posted by: SteveM at Apr 30, 2008 10:48:23 AM
I would argue that you should try the same experiment with appearances on C-span2's book programming, or on talk radio, especially a nationally syndicated show. I have some experience with both of these and I can tell you that the Amazon ranking soars after a C-span appearance or syndicated radio. The real lesson here may be that print can no longer sell books the way it used to, ironically.
Posted by: SteveM at Apr 30, 2008 10:49:34 AM
Wouldn't it be easier and more precise to simply look at one's monthly royalty check to know how much his book sales spiked at any given time? Of course, I am ignorant in the ways of book publishing, so it may not work that way.
Posted by: Zach at Apr 30, 2008 12:46:00 PM
display ads for books are not to sell books. they are for good relations between the publisher and the author....
Posted by: chug at Apr 30, 2008 1:15:28 PM
I've purchased several books based on ads (not reviews, I've purchased many more based on reviews) in the NYT Book Review.
Posted by: Taylor at Apr 30, 2008 6:26:52 PM
The problem with depending on Walmart or Costco is that
they only carry 200 or so book titles which is only good if you want a bestseller.
Amazon is fine if you know what you want
but the browsing element is weak. I rarely find what something I want but wasn't
looking for specificaly. I preferlarge book stores: Powells in Portland,
Tattered Cover in Denver and Borders almost everywhere else.
BTW check your facts Borders isn't "going under" and they did start as an
independent bookseller and still retain some of the indy feel and inventory.
Posted by: zengolf at Apr 30, 2008 11:11:14 PM
Zengolf:
Of course Borders started out as an indy bookstore. There's not really any other way to start out, is there? It's not like some huge corporation like GE is going to say, "You know, we should start a bookstore chain!" But I honestly don't understand how you can say it still retains some of the indy feel and inventory... You must be mistaking "indy bookstore feeling" for "general bookstore feeling" or "not barnes and noble bookstore feeling". I think everywhere outside the east coast, there are more Borders and they're larger in the public consciousness than B&N, but either way, THE two bookstores nationwide are Borders and B&N (Powell's and Books-a-Million aren't yet there, and I don't know if they ever will be), so Borders is definitionally not Indy.
Stuart:
Given that Zengolf is right about the size of Walmart's book selection, it seems to me pretty impossible to get a book into Walmart unless that author's already sold a heck of a lot more than 5,000 in a Barnes & Noble. But when they sell to Walmart, it's also for a much lower price than when they sell it to B&N or Borders, largely because if Walmart doesn't sell it, they'll just throw it out, but if a bookstore doesn't sell it, the publishers (often) give them credit, and take the books back (a system that started during the great depression to keep bookstores afloat if they make a bad decision on a book).
Posted by: Andrew at Apr 30, 2008 11:32:59 PM
Where on the Amazon list is Ron Paul's book?
Posted by: happyjuggler0 at May 1, 2008 1:34:43 PM
Ads sometimes do contribute to book sales, but not generally in the NYT Book Review Section. Ads in the NYTBR Section are generally there for signaling purposes -- to announce to the trade (and its closest fans) that a publisher is behind a title; or to placate the ego of a successful and powerful author.
One other point: The big-box retailers are *huge* where book sales are concerned. I forget what the percentage of sales they're responsible for is, but it's pretty high, as in 25% or so. This is a positive and a minus for the publishers. Get one of your titles in the big-box stores and you might make a fortune. But some titles that show up in big-box stores flop, and when they do the publisher takes a huge hit. Another downside: some of the most powerful people in book publishing these days are the purchasers at the big-box stores. OK, maybe that's a positive, depends on your point of view, I guess. Still, it's an interesting fact, I think.
Another downside is that more and more the big commercial book publishers are optimized for generating and distributing books via the chains and the big-box stores. That's what they do; that's almost all they do. They're pretty good at it too, filling those shelves, shipping those copies, taking care of the bookkeeping, etc. But it does mean that the big commercial publishers have become ever more like, I dunno, toy manufacturers or something than what most people think of when they think of publishers.
Posted by: Michael Blowhard at May 1, 2008 1:48:19 PM
