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If you're not looking at the betting markets...
You should be. Right here. C'mon people, turn your TVs off and go crash the InTrade servers, making sure you pay homage to Hayek and Robin Hanson along the way.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on February 5, 2008 at 07:31 PM in Political Science | Permalink
Comments
Now 62-38. I guess we'll learn something here. But that will be a couple of hours from now.
Posted by: Russell L. Carter at Feb 5, 2008 7:57:25 PM
If it wasn't so hard to put money in an account, I'd bet a bunch on Hilary at 38 - seems like a huge overreaction to his projected win of Georgia. I'd be surprised if either candidate has a decisive edge after tonight.
Posted by: Will Perkins at Feb 5, 2008 8:06:48 PM
Is it legal for us in the US to use Intrade?
Posted by: Question at Feb 5, 2008 8:16:34 PM
I've been checking this pretty regularly, but what information are people trading on. I'm guessing exit polling data??
Posted by: AntonEgoFan at Feb 5, 2008 8:46:59 PM
Isn't information only worth anything if it changes what action you take? Why follow blow-by-blow on election night when you are going to find out for sure what happened first thing in the morning, and you are unlikely to use the information before that?
Posted by: PLW at Feb 5, 2008 9:04:28 PM
PLW: Same reason you watch NASCAR live instead of just reading the results in the papers the next day - entertainment value!
Of course, NASCAR isn't everyone's cup of tea. Neither are political races. But it sure is fun watching the racers crash and burn!
Posted by: eddie at Feb 5, 2008 9:23:01 PM
I tried to set up an account on Intrade but couldn't get my credit card to work. What am I supposed to do, go to Dublin and give them some cash?
Posted by: John S. at Feb 5, 2008 9:38:22 PM
The betting markets (Iowa, Intrade, Tradesports) used to have excellent predictive value, which has recently dimieshed (e.g. Obama, Connecticut). The reason? Obviously, increased enforcement of anti-gambling legislation which makes it virtually impossible (or extremely difficult) for American nationals to access these accounts. This regulatory imposition of transaction costs has markedly decreased the efficiency of those markets.
Posted by: Sunset Shazz at Feb 5, 2008 10:06:58 PM
If Obama wins tonight, which is increasingly unlikely, I'd short his position like no tomorrow.
Posted by: Robert Olson at Feb 5, 2008 10:30:35 PM
Been a long time since I posted. I wonder looking at the intrade graph if a candidate could sink enough money into the intrade market to shift the stock before an election. I am a obama man myself but this is a cheap ploy considering. And the correction after is shocking too.
Or is it someone buying lottery tickets? I wonder if Hanson considered that. If you have enough dough, you can shift these markets because of the illiquidity of them.
Posted by: Richard Pointer at Feb 5, 2008 11:10:28 PM
Pointer, as I have argued before, If you love them, short them. It creates incentives for other people to buy your contracts, and then go out and make your candidate win. (You of course have to announce what you are doing, so that people don't think all that shorting means that "someone has insider knowledge about his campaign!" etc.)
Posted by: Harald K at Feb 6, 2008 8:33:33 AM
Well, the markets started the evening with Clinton up by a hair, swing to nearly 60-40 Obama, swung back as far as 62-38 Clinton, and have now gone all the way to... almost exactly where they started yesterday morning.
Unless you're exceptionally quick on the draw and the InTrade equivalent of a day-trader, the clear answer last night was to hold tight on your positions.
Posted by: Lee at Feb 6, 2008 9:01:43 AM
Pointer, if you don't love any of them, sell your vote on EBay. What an increase in efficiency that would be.
Posted by: F at Feb 6, 2008 12:22:46 PM
I'm guessing Tyler didn't buy Rudy futures in October. Otherwise he'd have other choice words for Hayek.
Posted by: Mo at Feb 6, 2008 3:35:01 PM
Posted by: 深圳翻译公司 at Feb 23, 2008 10:08:06 AM
