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Today's good news?
Given market plunges around the world, we may need something to cheer us up a tiny bit:
Even Citigroup Inc., by far the hardest hit of the big U.S. banks by subprime-related problems, earned $3.62 billion last year. That was with a $9.83 billion fourth-quarter net loss and more than $22 billion in writedowns and additions to loan-loss reserves.
For JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank, the focus was on the 34 percent drop in fourth-quarter profits from a year earlier. Its full-year $15.4 billion profit, a record, was largely ignored. ...
Economist Robert E. Litan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has done numerous studies of the U.S. financial system, said the banks are in far better shape than the dire assessments suggest.
''Strip out the losses and Citi could make close to $10 billion a quarter,'' Litan said. Noting how quickly the bank has been able ... to replace the capital depleted by losses, he added, ''Why would anybody buy stock if they thought Citi was going down the tubes?''
The link is from Mark Thoma. This is one of several reasons why I don't see solvency problems -- apart from homeowners that is -- as today's major economic plague. Elsewhere, it seems that tax-free municipal yields are higher than Treasury yields, an unusual and counterintuitive state of affairs; this is a sign that large institutional investors are spooked and have their head in the proverbial sand. They've run into T-Bills, but they have no reason to hold the tax-free munis. That also means if you see a big spread between T-Bills and commercial paper, you shouldn't interpret it as a high implied default risk for major companies.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on January 22, 2008 at 06:17 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
The way to solve the T bill - CP spread false signal
is to use a longish moving average depending on
your timeframe for default.
Also, I think a federal bailout is inevitable for
some institutions to the tune of billions of dollars.
Posted by: sa at Jan 22, 2008 8:49:52 AM
Is anybody here accumlating Citigroup stock? I have been.
Posted by: Floccina at Jan 22, 2008 9:39:33 AM
Whoops, your comments section isn’t working correctly. What I was trying to say is the fact that you think Citicorp earning 3 billion bucks is “something to cheer us up a tiny bit” says a lot about the society we live in.
Posted by: Lee at Jan 22, 2008 10:09:00 AM
All bets are off following the fed's interest rate cuts today. 3/4 points seems... outright irresponsible.
Posted by: sd at Jan 22, 2008 10:24:51 AM
Yields on munis could be up because people are worried about the credit quality of bond insurers
Posted by: mathieu at Jan 22, 2008 10:52:49 AM
Ah! So if you assume there are no more surprises lurking in the shadows, the banks are doing great. Why doesn't that make me feel any better?
Posted by: bob at Jan 22, 2008 12:53:13 PM
Prof. Cowen -
I'm confused about the interest rate cut earlier today. If cheap access to credit led to the subprime mortgage "mess", and the price of oil is at least partly due to the low value of the US dollar, why would the Federal Reserve take an action that (1) makes money cheaper and (2) will further devalue the dollar? Perhaps you could explain why I am wrong to think that this emergency rate cut makes no sense.
Thanks.
Posted by: Rob at Jan 22, 2008 1:05:45 PM
"Strip out the losses"? Do that and everyone's making money :)
Posted by: David Zetland at Jan 22, 2008 1:53:01 PM
insurance companies that gurantee the munis supposedly have some major subprime issues. that is why the spreads are messed up. mbia tried to borrow to shore up its balance sheet and was going ot have to pay too high of a rate.
when citi has to borrow from middle east investors to shore ups its balance sheet and pay double digit rates to do so something is wrong.
Posted by: oops at Jan 22, 2008 5:13:10 PM
Its the best of all possible worlds! Tyler "Candide" Cowen......
Posted by: Moe Green at Jan 22, 2008 5:34:59 PM
We have the bestest economy, bestest democray and smartest bankers in all of history and the world.
Its all the best.....the marvel of our free market corruption free society is the envy of the world.....yawn.
tiresome when economists spend all their time defending myths........
Posted by: Moe Green at Jan 22, 2008 5:38:29 PM
Yeah and Countrywide had $4.00 per share profits in 2006. So what? Lets look at now. Oh ever heard
of mark to market----er mark to fantasy......Gee Mark Thoma said so.....What is he the new
George Soros? Lame.
Posted by: Robert C at Jan 22, 2008 6:08:03 PM
HOWS THIS FOR LAUGHS,HOW ABOUT SOME TRIL-LIONS DOLLAR
BAIL-OUT???
Posted by: Louis Takacs at Jan 22, 2008 7:25:22 PM
I think that the profits of the major financial institutions will continue decline because the number of mortgage foreclosures will increase. Why? Because the interest rates on foreclosures will go higher.
Posted by: J at Jan 22, 2008 8:40:31 PM
One difference between financial commentors and economic commentors is that the financial ones have contempt for each other. Today ... it shows in the comments.
Posted by: Russell Nelson at Jan 23, 2008 2:31:44 AM
Finally done trading. No day has convinced me of the irrelevancy of small markets [like academia] like today.
Posted by: JPC at Jan 23, 2008 4:14:11 AM
Oh joy - the (stupid, greedy, risk-laden) rich got richer. I can sleep better knowing that there are always shills enabling 'the system.'
Posted by: meter at Jan 23, 2008 6:14:56 PM
Do not ignore the impact of the credit default swaps hanging out there. Their impact has not yet been felt fully. Most likely only 25% of the full impact has been declared in the hits to earnings. There are still earnings and balance sheet impacts to come.
Posted by: techreseller at Jan 25, 2008 2:17:18 PM
Marine Lance Cpl. Joshua Bleill learned to walk again thanks to bluetooth technology. While on a tour in the middle east in 2006, Bleill had both of his legs amputated from the knee down after a bomb exploded under his humvee. The bluetooth technology allows Bleill to move his legs together as though they were real. The bluetooth sends signals to both legs allowing them to move in accordance with the other; while one moves forward, the other moves backward. While most news shows are filled with the most recent deaths and bombings, CNN put a twist on an unfortunate story and gave America something to smile about.
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Posted by: baom at Feb 9, 2008 1:27:54 AM
Very nice article! Thanks for this!
Posted by: 二宮沙樹 at Jul 28, 2008 7:31:59 AM






