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Who will be next to fall?
Who’s next? Paddy Power, the Irish gambling site, has decided to tap the wisdom of crowds and set odds on who the next C.E.O. casualty will be.
At the top of the site’s list, odds-wise, is Bear Stearns‘ James E. Cayne. Paddy Power is quoting 13-8 odds on a bet that he will be ousted by June 30, 2008. The odds, better than 2-1, represent a relatively high expectation that he will soon be out of a job. That probably reflects some serious setbacks at Bear Stearns under his watch, including the collapse of two internal hedge funds this summer.
Here is the story, thanks to John de Palma for the pointer. And here is Robin Hanson on CEO Futures, the idea originates from Robin.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 13, 2007 at 08:14 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
A step closer, but alas still a long way off from markets in the stock conditional on keeping (or not) the CEO.
Posted by: Robin Hanson at Dec 13, 2007 9:28:09 AM
I'll lay those odds on Cayne all day. No way is he gone by 6/30, and even if he does end up leaving, 2-1 is way too low a price to be a buyer.
Posted by: tokey at Dec 13, 2007 11:56:36 AM
How is 13-8 better than 2-1? 2-1 translates to 16-8, making 13-8 less than 2-1. Is this new math?
Posted by: David R. Henderson at Dec 13, 2007 12:09:55 PM
"The odds, better than 2-1, represent a relatively high expectation that he will soon be out of a job"
By "better" he is referring to the implied probability. He's not implying that that 13-8 is a cheaper price for the buyer.
Posted by: Jay at Dec 13, 2007 12:29:18 PM
I absolutely love gambling but the odds are always stacked against me.
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