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When does self-deception do the most good?

Knowledge@Wharton: In your chapter, "The Dangerous and Necessary Art of Self-Deception," you write that some degree of optimistic self-deception is critical for success, and that "depressive realists," with their more accurate view of the world, fall behind. What advice would you give to a board choosing a CEO? Is it better to have an optimistic self-deceiver or a depressive realist?

Cowen: For a CEO, I'd tend to go for the realist, because at the leadership level, the costs of hubris are very high. The problem with realists is they can get depressed and feel they are not going anywhere, but this is less likely to happen to CEOs, because they are in charge.

In the lower rungs of the company, however, I would favor overly optimistic people, those who are motivated by the idea that they always have a chance of being promoted or earning more money. The higher up you are, the more I would prefer realism. A president who won't listen can be pretty disastrous. But a senator who doesn't listen -- maybe it's not ideal, but there are checks and balances, and if the optimism gets the senator to work harder, then that is the compensation.

Here is the full interview with me.  By the way here is a recent Indian review of Inner Economist, from Mint.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 7, 2007 at 11:02 AM in Economics | Permalink

Comments

So now you need to explain how to start as high up as possible...

Posted by: Cynical Masters Student at Dec 7, 2007 3:06:08 PM

In practice, I believe, the higher up you go the more likely you are to find an optimist. Whether this is because optimists are more likely to be promoted, or because promotion confirms any optimistic tendencies one might have, I do not know. Hubris among CEOs seems to be more the rule than the exception.

Posted by: y at Dec 7, 2007 3:16:14 PM

Scott Adams takes the opposite approach, citing research that happy people are more successful and unhappy people are the hardest workers.

Posted by: mith at Dec 7, 2007 3:35:10 PM

Saw an interesting article recently in the business press somewhere that said that CEOs need to be optimistic but that COOs need (or tend) to be pessimistic, cranky and not to pleasant to be around. So relationship between rank and outlook is complicated.

Posted by: Eric G at Dec 7, 2007 4:18:55 PM

If everyone takes your advice, then realists will be unemployable at entry-level and mid-level positions. So when it comes time to recruit a new CEO, where exactly will we find a pool of qualified realists with actual industry experience?

Realists would perhaps be better off rejecting the corporate ladder altogether and engaging in financial market speculation for their own account. Theoretically they should do better at predicting, say, stock market crashes. To get the seed capital, they should seek employment in industries that don't hire shiny happy people: perhaps cops or funeral directors.

Posted by: at Dec 7, 2007 4:23:20 PM

Self-deception seems linked to self-esteem.. consider this interesting paper on self-esttem and labour market choices: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=658464

Posted by: at Dec 7, 2007 4:49:24 PM

So when it comes time to recruit a new CEO, where exactly will we find a pool of qualified realists with actual industry experience?

You've never actually been through the management-fad-of-the-week, have you? If you had, you would not ask such questions.

Posted by: Eric H at Dec 7, 2007 8:08:38 PM

What about the possibility of adopting a "mixed strategy"? - that is, perhaps some mix of optimism and realism is the optimal course

Posted by: enrique at Dec 7, 2007 9:09:07 PM

I would look for an optimistic person to fill the position. With an optimistic person in charge he or she will be able to motivate the rest of that company or corporation, in turn increasing the profits. Realists tend to focus on the negatives in things, they may get stuck worrying about what when wrong when they could be trying to fix the situation in a positive way. Optimists are the ones who will take a risk for better outcomes, thats the type of person I would like to have in charge.

Posted by: John at Dec 7, 2007 10:37:03 PM

As a CEO they need to be a realist. Not cutting the company short by being over optimistic. But this also trickles down through the chain of employment. At all levels of the corporation you need a balanced mix of both types of people. This is hard especially with the interview and questioning process of todays working field. The questions asked and comments made everyone knows how a employer wants you to react to them. No one answers them a hundred percent truthfully they just answer with the way the employer wants. This makes it hard for the employer to put people in correct positions. So maybe we should go an alternative route of the hiring process.

Posted by: Brandon at Dec 7, 2007 11:35:39 PM

It seems to me another option might be someone who is skilled in the psychology of funambulism which, when referring to psychology, is the ability to hold two contradictory notions or ideas at once and still maintain composure. A good funambulist could maintain both a self-image that was realistic and pessimistic and one that was optimistic and idealist at once and still maintain his footing. A good example of a character that was like this might be Hamlet. Though I suppose he wasn't that good at making decisions in a crisis. But a funambulist who could make decisions in a crisis, if they could be found, would be the way to go. And maybe in a non-crisis environment Hamlet would make a good CEO.

Posted by: Casey at Dec 8, 2007 1:31:40 AM

Seems to me enlightened folk from Jesus to Aurelius to Rumi to Guatama Buddha to Ghandi to...Eckhart Tolle would challenge the notion that self-deception is "necessary" in any important sense. Of course, no doubt we're talking apples and oranges here. No. Doubt.

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