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The girl with the X-Ray eyes
"She must be some kind of Russian fraud," was the first thing I said to Yana and Natasha. We were riding in a bus through rural Mexico and they played a Discovery Channel show about Natasha Demkina, a girl who claims to be able to see through human bodies and diagnose their medical conditions. Here is Wikipedia on the girl. I found this article revealing:
...a lot of text messages were being sent between her and her companions during the test, something the scientists had expressly forbidden.
Here is another skeptical account, and here. Here is a good Bayesian discussion. Here is the Amazing Randi. No, I do not believe in the paranormal, nor is her record even close to perfect, but still the girl seems to have a remarkable ability to read clues from ailing human beings. (She doesn't seem to be interested in seeing through animal bodies or for that matter inanimate objects.) I am glad to hear she wants to become a doctor. What I find odd is her apparently unique ability to pull off this fraud; is there not free entry into the sector? I also find it interesting that the Discovery Channel finds this story "true enough" to broadcast in some countries, but not others.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 31, 2007 at 03:31 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
Clever Hans, the horse that could do arithmetic, was in fact skilled at reading what the questioner thought was the right answer, not at knowing arithmetic.
He couldn't do the problem if he couldn't see the questioner.
No medical horses, though.
Posted by: Ron Hardin at Dec 31, 2007 5:42:00 AM
Actually, Clever Hans only watched for the slight, unconscious dip of his owner's head, which indicated that he should stop "counting" - striking the ground with his hoof. The brimmed hat the horse's owner wore helped to exaggerate the slight head movement that followed the horse's reaching the desired number. The horse was not reading anyone's thoughts. Just responding to a subtle visual signal! The use of subtle body language clues to communicate information is often called the "Clever Hans effect."
Posted by: andrew skolnick at Dec 31, 2007 8:51:32 AM
What I find odd is her apparently unique ability to pull off this fraud; is there not free entry into the sector?
I guess one possibility is that the great majority of people don't want to commit fraud. (That sounds flip, but I'm serious.)
Posted by: jp at Dec 31, 2007 8:58:15 AM
"What I find odd is her apparently unique ability to pull off this fraud; is there not free entry into the sector?"
She has no unique ability: she has novelty in that her claims are more audacious than usual for this oversaturated sector.
The false medical diagnosis sector is lousy with competitors, such as chiropractic, naturopathy, homeopathy, and psychic healing. Why don't you sail over to Quackwatch Sites and Affiliates for a little refresher?
Posted by: Mike Huben at Dec 31, 2007 8:58:56 AM
It's interesting that you are all quite certain that these kinds of phenomena do not exist. . .
Posted by: Matthew at Dec 31, 2007 9:03:10 AM
I saw the Discovery Channel show, and found the specific "debunking" it documented was unconvincing. Not only did Natasha Demkina diagnose a surprising number of ailments, but she failed to clear the bar they set only because it included ailments that she said, ahead of time, she could not diagnose.
Posted by: tom s. at Dec 31, 2007 9:15:09 AM
"I also find it interesting that the Discovery Channel finds this story "true enough" to broadcast in some countries, but not others."
I find it fascinating that the US falls in implied category of "too skeptical." We do right by Silvia Brown and the "They Don't Want Ya to Know" guy.
Is the girl is homely or flat-chested?
Posted by: burger flipper at Dec 31, 2007 9:17:37 AM
As one of the designers of the test shown in the Discovery program, I'd like to correct an inaccuracy in the posted quote above (there are many errors throughout that Wikipedia article): Although the test rules forbade Natasha Demkina from speaking with anyone other than the interpreter during the test, they did not "expressly forbid" the use of a cell phone to send text messages during the test. (Use of a cell phone should have been obvious. What was not obvious was how her teenage friend -- who was switched for the Russian interpreter hired by the Discovery Channel producer -- used the phone to send and receive text messages during the test breaks. Neither I nor Drs. Ray Hyman and Richard Wiseman noticed the phone being used until late in the test. The test, which should have taken 30 to 60 minutes to complete, dragged on for more than 4 hours.
Not being allowed to talk with her subjects and get them to respond, appeared to cloud Natasha's "x-ray vision." It took her more than 4 hours to study the 7 subjects to identify organs she usually "sees" in a matter of seconds. She made 6 errors. She missed seeing 3 conditions in 3 subjects and falsely "saw" those conditions in 3 other subjects. She only correctly matched 4 conditions in 4 subjects. Not only is 4 correct "diagnoses" (guesses) vs. 6 false "diagnoses" (guesses) poor evidence of paranormal powers, it's downright grounds for medical malpractice suits! If you've followed the career of Natasha Demkina, you may know about the British TV doctor who had an on-air "medical" reading from Natasha. She told him she saw serious signs of disease that sent the TV doc running off to have x-rays, colonoscopy, and other expensive tests (some of which are not without health risks). Of course, the gullible twit was fine. The most troubling fact is that this TV doctor regularly gives medical advice to tens of thousands of people in the U.K.
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 9:33:30 AM
Matthew, it's interesting that you are quite certain that these kinds of phenomena [probably] do exist -- without credible evidence for their existence.
Doesn't it trouble you that every time we take a very careful look at paranormal claims, they prove false or unsubstantiated?
Some defenders of supernatural belief call this the "shyness effect" (things-that-go-bump-in-the-night are bashful and don't want to be examined by persnickety scientists). People with their heads screwed on right call this "special pleading" or "a load of bunk."
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 9:44:59 AM
"Doesn't it trouble you that every time we take a very careful look at paranormal claims, they prove false or unsubstantiated?"
Andrew,
You're simply misrepresenting the facts. There is a great deal of evidence that some of these phenomena are real, Irreducible Mind provides a good overview. And many of these phenomena have been investigated by (initially) disbelieving scientists and continued to appear.
Here's just one example of an icon of the organized "skepticism" movement providing experimental evidence for an unexplained phenomenon, despite disbelieving his own results.
As for Demkina, I am quite agnostic as to her particular abilities (or lack thereof).
Posted by: Matthew at Dec 31, 2007 10:16:01 AM
BTW Andrew,
How interesting that you choose to use the word "supernatural" to describe these phenomena, when practically every researcher into these topics eschews that description or the belief that these things are somehow "outside nature". I can only infer that you are attempting to slur researchers by conflating them with religious zealots when many of them (such as Dr. Dean Radin) are avowed atheists and vocal opponents of religious belief.
Posted by: Matthew at Dec 31, 2007 10:25:41 AM
Tom, you are referring to what are called post hoc rationalizations. Natasha Demkina did not claim any of those conditions were unidentifiable to her at any time before the test. She only offered such excuses after she had difficulty picking up clues to help her guess. One of her post hoc excuses was that the surgical scars around a partially removed esophagus (gullet) would block her view. That's absurd on the face of it because the presence of such scars would indicate the right subject. All she had to do was eliminate the other six subjects that didn't have surgical scars around their esophagus and choose the one who did!
Another condition she missed was a removed appendix. She used the scar excuse for that too, plus she claimed that appendixes sometimes can grow back. When I told her that that is not true, she insisted that they do in Russia.
Perhaps her most dramatic failure was her inability to "see" the metal plate covering a large piece of removed skull in one subject. She explained that failure by saying she should have looked "more deeply." Actually, the large metal plate was only skin deep! The plate not only could be felt by toughing the subject's forehead, it was even visible if you looked closely WITH NORMAL EYES. Later post hoc excuses were offered claiming that Natasha Demkina cannot see metal. Not only did she not claim this during the test, some of her most widely touted "diagnostic" successes involved her supposedly "seeing" metal screws and pins in the bones of patients.
Another important point: Our test did not have Natasha make any diagnoses. A diagnosis involves examining a patient and identifying a disease or other health problem. Natasha was not asked to do that. She was asked to find the physical signs of a previously cured medical problem. She was given a list of six different physical abnormalities to look for and was asked to match them with the right six (out of seven) subjects. For example, she was asked to find the subject with a missing piece of skull and a large metal plate under his scalp. That was clearly the easiest condition to find -- a three-year old child could have found it in a few minutes. Natasha failed to find it in more than 4 hours.
P.T. Barnum said there's a sucker born every minute. That was more than a century and a half ago. The rate is now probably one every 1.5 seconds. The great abundance of people who need to be fooled and even taken advantage of makes it possible for the success and popularity of all kinds of charlatans. The phenomenon of "the girl with x-ray vision" is only the latest example of (to borrow from Abe Lincoln) how easy it is to "fool some of the people all of the time."
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 10:31:58 AM
Matthew, the burden of proof is on the claimant. (Being that it is illogical to demand proof of nonexistence.) So please provide indisputable proof that any paranormal phenomenon is real. This of course means an observation that is repeatable by others -- regardless of their beliefs.
Naturally, the work of devout believers like Dr. Radin, though it may be accepted as proof by other devout believers (like Nobel laureate Brian Josephson), does not cut it. To be convincing evidence, an observation has to be reproducible by non-believers as well.
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 10:41:30 AM
BTW, please don't hold up anyone as an icon of the "organized 'skepticism' movement" being turned into a believer by either error or fraud. First of all, if the "skeptical movement" was any less "organized," it would have infinite entropy. Second, that's the logical fallacy of arguing from authority. And most importantly, I've never come across a believer in the paranormal who didn't begin his or her story with, "I was strongly skeptical."
You know, I used to be a believer in a number of paranormal claims. Then I grew up, got an education, and became a skeptic. That's usually the way it works for people who shun belief without compelling evidence.
If you think there is compelling evidence for belief in any paranormal phenomenon, tell us your best, most compelling evidence (just your best, not a long shopping list of claims). Thanks.
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 11:13:11 AM
It's amazing the amount of crazy beliefs in this world.
Recently my sister-in-law went to see a "soul reader" -- apparently some new variant of the palm reader. It was just painful to listen to. Her description of the event was a mix of cold reading plus some inside info.
My sis-in-law works for a prominent country music singer, and had been recommended to this "soul reader" by the singer's hairstylist. Despite this fact, my sis-in-law (who otherwise is a bright, successful girl) was impressed the psychic guessed her career and could describe her boss.
A couple other "hits" ... The psychic correctly predicted they were planning on children soon (wow, a married couple in their late 20s .. what are the odds.) She also guessed her grandparents had been or ill or had died.
I'm willing to pass off much psychic crap as harmless (especially if a cute girl wants to read my palm or aura or whatever), but the fake medical treatments make me very, very angry. That's just evil.
Posted by: jim at Dec 31, 2007 11:45:48 AM
Off topic: Matthew, your landscape photography is inspirationally beautiful.
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 11:49:37 AM
Jim, amen. You're dead on about that. The mere fact that the palm-reading-like "diagnoses" Natasha Demkina provides her clients may send them for unnecessary, often expensive and not always harmless medical tests is reason enough to condemn what she does. And then there's the harm she causes by either making them worry unnecessarily or -- even worse -- providing them false assurance that there's no problem when there actually is.
To see how easy it is to provide a cold reading that can convince most people you are a true psychic, listen to the very first cold readings I ever performed, back in 1986 on WGN-AM radio "Extension 720 with Milt Rosenberg Show." I knew NOTHING about the two callers - that is until they revealed so much with what they said and how they said it. (I'm a bit more clever than any horse named Hans.)
http://www.aaskolnick.com/ext720.mp3
Could you imagine what I could do with a little more practice (and a hell of a lot fewer scruples)? I could start my own religion and live in the lap of divine luxury. If not here, certainly in Russia. ;-)
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 12:07:46 PM
It is believed that several Indian yogis can read your thoughts perfectly and converse with animals and birds.Some present day yogis have virtually put up an industry specialising in telling about your previous incarnation and next incarnation (giving you all geographical, occupational and economic details of your past and future incarnations).They make millions out of this business.
Posted by: GVV at Dec 31, 2007 12:29:35 PM
askolnick, can you please make corrections to the wiki page if you haven't already?
Posted by: Cliff at Dec 31, 2007 1:21:26 PM
It was believed that the sun crossed the sky in a chariot driven by the God Apollo. Today, it is believed that faces of Jesus and the Virgin Mary appear in breakfast pancakes, the bark of trees, or blotches on the wall. Many people still believe we found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Needless to say, beliefs often have very little to do with reality.
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 1:41:47 PM
Cliff, I gave up trying to do that almost two years ago. I was outnumbered by paranormal believers who insisted that self-published Internet rants and articles from sleazy tabloid newspapers are credible sources (despite Wikipedia's rules to the contrary). No matter how many times I took such out, they put it back in. I finally stopped contributing to Wikipedia. Wiki's uncontroversial articles are usually o.k. But controversial subjects that attracts determined propagandists? Forget it. Trying to undo their damage is a painful waste of time. One may eventually get one or two vandals banned, but what's the use? They soon return posting from another computer under another name (or even anonymously - most of the time, Wikipedia allows anonymous editing!).
Posted by: askolnick at Dec 31, 2007 1:56:04 PM
"Ring bell for psychic"
http://hobnobblog.com/2007/12/ring_bell_for_psyhic.php
Posted by: chug at Dec 31, 2007 4:21:38 PM
From Ambrose Bierce's The Devil's Dictionary:
CLAIRVOYANT, n. A person, commonly a woman, who has the power of seeing that which is invisible to her patron, namely, that he is a blockhead.
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