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Pakistan update
So we have as close to a confirmed familial cluster of H5N1 that we have witnessed since May, 2006 in Indonesia.
Here is much more detail. There seems to be evidence of at least limited human-to-human transmission for bird flu in Pakistan. Here are other reports. If you think that the risk of a bird flu pandemic has been declining over the last year or two, it's a sign you are taking too many cues from mainstream American media. The pools of the virus have been festering and if anything the risk of a broader pandemic probably has been going up. It's a shame that none of the presidential candidates have said much about what we should be doing.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 15, 2007 at 11:25 PM in Medicine | Permalink
Comments
I think flu pandemics in industrialized nations are deeply unlikely because, well, it's been pretty nearly a century since the last one. More here.
Posted by: Jon at Dec 16, 2007 12:31:50 AM
Not to be snide, but doesn't:
"It's a shame that none of the presidential candidates have said much about what we should be doing."
naturally follow:
"taking too many cues from mainstream American media."
Do the serious (those with a chance of winning) candidates ever address potential crises that aren't getting media play?
I'm a little too young to remember the tenor of the times when Clinton was pushing health care reform in 92 (I didn't pay much attention to the news back then).
Posted by: burger flipper at Dec 16, 2007 12:33:54 AM
I take it as a good sign presidential candidates aren't discussing what "we" should be doing. I don't think getting government involved will improve anything.
Posted by: Dan at Dec 16, 2007 12:48:54 AM
"It's a shame that none of the presidential candidates have said much about what we should be doing (about the possible pandemic)." - Tyler Cowen
Contrast with:
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins..." - H. L. Mencken
I don't see it as a "shame," so much as a relief that I'm afraid will be short-lived. As soon as the possibility of a pandemic hits the front page, all the politicians will be competing to get in front of the mike, and they will all be saying the same thing--the government needs more money and more power to deal with this problem.
Posted by: M. Hodak at Dec 16, 2007 1:31:00 AM
things were more worrying last year with H5N1 going from Russia to Europe, Karo-cluster,
Webster-Interview and other statements. It's not only the
mainstream American media.
Also the experts.
And the mortality-bonds prices.
Some advances with vaccines in the last 1-2 years.
WHO still at level 3, no such
speculation to increase it as last year.
Posted by: gsgs at Dec 16, 2007 3:01:23 AM
Crap. I'm going there next week.
Posted by: Ali Choudhury at Dec 16, 2007 6:27:24 AM
Obama's actually done some of the most work in the Senate on bird flu. It's worth checking out before you fault all of the candidates on the issue. Personally, I thought it all seemed a little alarmist and was disappointed that he chose it as one of his major issues, but it could be a real political boon if these transmission reports keep coming.
Posted by: zqfmgb at Dec 16, 2007 9:45:22 PM
Or just buy a facemask ( http://nanoandcommodities.wordpress.com/2007/05/25/surgical-facemasks-made-with-nanofibers/ ) and be careful if the pandemy starts to unveil. Why do you need government do something for you..?
Posted by: andy at Dec 17, 2007 7:50:27 AM
Jon, Re no epidemics in the last 100 years. Read the "Black Swan". Of course, that book would suggest that while we are worrying about H5N1, we will be blindsided by some other catastropic event that we will not have predicted nor will we have been able to predict it. Course many readers and posters on this blog will not take kindly to the book because he has very few nice things to say about economists.
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