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I'd been wondering about this for a few years
Dubai is on a spending spree, and financial analysts are starting to wonder about the amount of debt the city-state is racking up. Its oil production is dwindling, and its debt load is four times the average among other Persian Gulf states. Credit-rating companies are asking for more information to determine how sound the government really is..."The transparency isn't good."
Here is the article and related links. If I had to "sell short" one country or city-state in the world today, it would be Dubai.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 15, 2007 at 10:26 PM in Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
The article mentions the (much worse) US debt/GDP only in passing.
"sell-short" there too? Why the ultra-qualified "average among other Persian Gulf states. "
Posted by: Raul at Dec 15, 2007 11:13:55 PM
Tyler sounds like he should be posting on longorshortcapital.com
Recommendation: Short Dubai, Long oil.
Posted by: Joel W at Dec 16, 2007 12:26:52 AM
Building the tallest building in the world (or trying to) is about the strongest short-selling signal for a country that you can get.
Posted by: Alex J. at Dec 16, 2007 12:39:28 PM
I visited there in March '06 and, while getting starry-eyed over the trophy buildings, was agog at the relative lack of transportation infrastructure--traffic jams without relief in some areas. They're trying to build a Manhattan without a subway system. 'Nuff said!
Posted by: Thayne at Dec 16, 2007 1:59:47 PM
I visited there this autumn, and said to myself `is this real?' The city
has just shopaholics and malls. I felt not easy there for a moment.
Posted by: selina at Dec 16, 2007 3:33:16 PM
The short answer is that a lot of the building in Dubai is being supported, directly and indirectly, but its much richer but lower-profile brother-in-confederation, Abu Dhabi.
Dubai will not be allowed to fail, and AD has more than enought money to see that it will not.
As for people complaining about transparency in the Arab world, I can only laugh heartily. Most Westerners investing there have no idea what kind of Wild West they are walking into.
Posted by: bartman at Dec 16, 2007 6:21:27 PM
Thayne:
They are building a subway/light rail system, with speed that is stunning by Western standards. Google "Dubai metro".
Posted by: bartman at Dec 16, 2007 6:27:47 PM
Jim Henley points to some troubling developments in Dubai here.
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