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Worst-Case Scenarios
That's the new book by Cass Sunstein, and yes it works through how choice theory should approach disasters and irreversible events. It is the most accessible presentation of this material to date and it is recommended to anyone who follows issues of global warming, pandemics, asteroid impacts, and the like.
The concluding chapter opens with the old quotation:
"If you make a plan, God laughs. If you make two plans, God smiles."
When it comes to this book, the worst case scenario is that you are out $24.95, you despair at mankind's ability to actually address these problems, and you come away enlightened. I would have wished for more material on public choice issues -- how good a job can governments do with these problems? -- but the more salient point is just how much Sunstein does cover.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 11, 2007 at 08:38 PM in Philosophy | Permalink
Comments
Is the book a technical treatment of the subject matter (e.g. does it include models) or is it aimed at more of a lay audience? Some more detail about the book would be GREATLY appreciated. Cass writes WAY too much to try to read it all.
Posted by: lostnihilist at Oct 11, 2007 11:00:37 PM
The book doesn't present mathematical models but it is not quite for the lay audience either...somewhere in between...
Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Oct 11, 2007 11:21:07 PM
You know, this comment has nothing to with the book, but this sentence seems off:
"When it comes to this book, the worst case scenario is that you are out $24.95, you despair at mankind's ability to actually address these problems, and you come away enlightened"
Opportunity Costs, Professor Cowen, opportunity costs ;)
I liked Infotopia, so I suppose I'll pick this one up, especially since disaster talk seems to be growing more and more prevalent given stock market jitters, global warming, and nuclear proliferation.
Posted by: Robert Olson at Oct 12, 2007 12:52:36 AM
It reminds me the book or R. Posner: Catastrophe Risk and Response in your description. What about a comparison?
Posted by: Laurent at Oct 12, 2007 3:24:29 AM
Another book that I've read is: Mission Improbable.
http://www.amazon.com/Mission-Improbable-Fantasy-Documents-Disaster/dp/0226109429/
This one is more about how folks cook up contingency plans that can't possibly work (hence the subtitle: fantasy documents).
Posted by: Peter at Oct 12, 2007 9:40:11 AM
Will "peak oilers" be offended that their concern does not make the short list? Or perhaps will the continued "denial" reinforce their in-group identity?
Posted by: odograph at Oct 12, 2007 10:01:25 AM
I wonder if the book says exactly how many plans God will find sufficient.
Posted by: wood turtle at Oct 12, 2007 3:14:44 PM
DR PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN here,
The book is certainly a panucopea to avert disasters.
DOCTOR PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN
Sweden
Posted by: DR PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN at Oct 12, 2007 11:16:07 PM
DR PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN here,
The book is certainly a panucopea to avert disasters.
DOCTOR PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN
Sweden
Posted by: DR PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN at Oct 12, 2007 11:16:39 PM
That's only $16.47 on Amazon (at least, that's the price I paid), so the opportunity cost is even lower than Tyler suggests.
Posted by: Donald A. Coffin at Oct 15, 2007 12:14:49 PM
PETER TEIMAN-FRANKLIN here,
Cass Sunstein is apparently bringing out a new book in the near future which promises to be as entertaining as the others.
PETER TEIMAN-Franklin
Sweden
Posted by: PETER TEIMAN-FRANKLIN at Feb 11, 2008 11:23:27 PM
PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN here,
Although the worst-case scenario books are largely anecdotal, they do provide useful info.
PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN
Sweden
Posted by: PETER TEIMAN-FRANKLIN at Feb 11, 2008 11:28:25 PM
PETER TEIMAN Franklin here,
The reason why worst-case scenario books are so appealing is that they have such practical info.
PETER TEIMAN Franklin,
Sweden
Posted by: PETER TEIMAN Franklin here, at Feb 18, 2008 2:10:24 PM
PETER TEIMAN Franklin here,
Worst-case scenario books certainly have practical info that extends beyond catastrophe.
PETER TEIMAN Franklin,
Sweden
Posted by: PETER TEIMAN Franklin here, at Feb 18, 2008 2:13:03 PM
PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN here,
Worst-case scenario books offer the ultimate in self-help books.
PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN,
Sweden
Posted by: PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN at Mar 25, 2008 12:23:59 AM
PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN here,
It is interesting how a lot of self-help books have developed a much more pragmatic approach thanks to Worst-case scenario books.
PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN,
Sweden
Posted by: PETER TEIMAN FRANKLIN at Mar 25, 2008 12:27:10 AM
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