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Prediction Markets: Some assorted news
- Wrap-up of an interesting conference run by Consensus Point (HT: Midas Oracle; Disclosure: I'm an occasional advisor to Consensus Point). Robin Hanson tells me that he is now (back to) bullish on prediction markets - he saw real evidence of real firms implementing prediction markets and taking them seriously.
UPDATE: Another nice summary available here. - How to bet real money, in a country in which real money markets are illegal? www.bet2give.com allows you to bet your charitable donations against mine. You win the bet? My donations go to your charity. I win the bet? Your donations go to my preferred charity. Brilliant. Incentives, charitable donations, and legal protection - all good things. A longer description here. (HT: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures)
- The '08 race at InTrade: Latest trading suggest Hillary is a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination (66% chance). The Republican primary is a true three horse race. Most puzzling (to me): How is Obama only a 16% chance? Some say he is really running for VP, but the markets suggest he is only a 27% chance to win the second spot on the ticket. My tip: Buy Obama for Prez at 8%.
[Full disclosure: I'm an occasional advisor to both Consensus Point and NewsFutures]
Posted by Justin Wolfers on October 1, 2007 at 11:46 AM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
Thoughts on the New York prediction market conference, part 1
http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/10/01/thoughts-on-the-new-york-prediction-market-conference-part-1/
Posted by: Chris Masse at Oct 1, 2007 2:46:51 PM
Three-way virtual ties, now that's a charming thing to have in primaries. If the democrats are lucky, the most loathed candidate (Giuliani?) will win with 34% of the vote, and go on to lose with a landslide in the real election. It's happened before, in 1972 for the democrats and 1964 for the republicans - both times an unpopular candidate had slightly stronger core support than his more popular opponents, won with a small plurality, and went on to lose with a landslide.
But one thing is the implications of this weakness in the way primaries are done, that's old news (everyone knows this is what FPTP systems do, right?). Another thing is that they haven't fixed it yet. Neither party. What does that tell me? Well, since fixing it would be much better at electing a candidate who could win, and they still don't do it... that tells me that not only is the nation divided, the parties are also horribly divided internally.
They are less interested in their party winning the presidency, and would rather see their faction having a shot at it. They simply don't have much common interest, they're just trying to use each other as best they can.
Posted by: Harald Korneliussen at Oct 2, 2007 5:49:57 AM
Justin, delighted to find your blog and through it your writings on prediction markets. I realized my Consensus Point NY event notes ommitted specific mention of the regulatory landscape in limiting PM adoption. I hadn't appreciated until reading the Brookings paper to which you contributed the extent of the issue and concern. I'll be following your progress.
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