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Mechanism Design for Grandma

Ok, Grandma may still have some difficulty but in honor of today's Nobelists, Hurwicz, Maskin and Myerson let's give it a go.  Suppose that you are selling a rare painting for which you want to raise the maximum revenue.  There are two potential buyers, Tyler, who values the painting at $100,000, and Alex who values it at $20,000.  The problem would be simple if you knew this information - you would then set the price at $99,999 and Tyler would buy maximizing your revenue.  But how much Tyler and Alex value the painting is their own private information.  How then should sell the painting?

One possibility that springs quickly to mind is an auction.  In a standard English open-cry auction Alex and Tyler will bid for the painting and the bids will keep rising until Alex is forced to drop out at $20,001.  Thus the auction earns you $20,001.  Not bad but is this the maximum revenue possible?  Remember that Tyler values the painting at $100,000 so you could be leaving a lot of money on the table.

What else can you do?  Well, how about an auction with a reserve price, say $50,000 - think of a reserve price as a secret bidder who calls in his bids on the phone.  A reserve price of $50,000 works well in this case as Tyler will pay $50,001.  But note that you just got lucky, if Tyler had valued the good at $30,000 you would have earned nothing at all.  Thus you would like to know whether a reserve is always optimal and how to set it.  (Riley and Samuelson, and much more generally Myerson both show that a reserve price is always optimal and how to set it).

But why stop at a reserve price?  How about a reserve price and an entry fee?  But why stop at reserve prices and entry fees?  You can add any kind of requirement to the auction that you want but will these requirements help you to raise revenue?  Lets boil the problem down to its essence.  Think about an auction as a mechanism - bidders put information into the mechanism, their bids, and the mechanism tells them the outcome.  (Hurwicz was the first to really start thinking about mechanisms in these very general terms.)

You want to design the mechanism to achieve a certain outcome.  The mechanism can be as complicated as you want but it must satisfy certain conditions.  First, the bidders must participate voluntarily - you can't boil them in oil - so there is a participation constraint.  At the end of the day the bidders must expect to be at least as well off as if they did not play the mechanism game (at least on average).

Second, there is an incentive compatability constraint.  You don't know how much Alex and Tyler truly value the painting so suppose that Tyler mimics whatever Alex does - Tyler can do this since he values the painting at least as much as Alex does.  It follows that whatever outcome the mechanism assigns to Alex, Tyler must get at least as much.  This is a significant constraint because it means that if you want Tyler to do something different than Alex, and you do, you want Tyler to bid more, then you must give Tyler something in return.  Thus, even in the optimal mechanism you, the seller, are not going to get everything.  Tyler is going to walk away with some surplus.

We still haven't solved for optimal mechanism, however.  And here is where the magic comes.  Not magic as in something wonderful but magic as in hand-waving.  Maskin and Myerson proved something very useful about mechanisms with these types of constraints.  It turns out that if you follow the constraints then you can restrict attention to mechanisms in which Tyler and Alex always tell the truth about their values, this is called the revelation principle.  (In a sense, this is obvious for imagine that we find the optimal mechanism given that Tyler and Alex submit whatever bids/information they want.  Then you tell Tyler and Alex - next time why don't you tell the truth about your values and we promise to give you exactly the outcome that we would have given you under the previous mechanism.)

In the case of auctions the direct mechanism is well known, a second price auction.  In a second price auction the high bidder wins but pays the second highest-bid.  In this auction it makes sense for every bidder to bid his true value - see if you can work out why - and it turns out that as the revelation principle says, revenues in this direct auction are the same as in say a regular English auction (under certain conditions, of course).

Ok, I have gone on for a while.  Here's the bottom line.  The basic set-up of agents with private information submitting "bids" which are then fed into a mechanism resulting in outcomes is very general.  How to raise taxes, regulate a monopolist, fund a public good (here's my own contribution to mechanism design), allocate organs, assign interns to hospitals, split common costs, allocate electricity across a grid - all can be thought of as mechanism design problems.   The tools that Hurwicz, Maskin and Myerson developed and their methods of paying attention to participation and incentive compatability constraints and using the revelation principle helps us to design, at least in principle, the best solutions to all of these problems.

Posted by Alex Tabarrok on October 15, 2007 at 09:12 AM in Economics | Permalink

Comments

It's been a mystery to me why my paper on cost allocations, using a unique mechanism, was my most downloaded paper.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=728524

Maybe it's a strange Nobel Prize prediction mechanism...

Posted by: M. Hodak at Oct 15, 2007 9:44:11 AM

Am I understanding correctly that the advantage of the second price auction is that it doesn't have to be iterated like a regular English auction? I ask because despite all the talk about how to maximize the income in the first two paragraphs of this post, as nearly as I can see the second price auction brings in $20,000 in the example, the same as the English auction.

Posted by: Sol at Oct 15, 2007 10:00:41 AM

Sol,

...and that it gets all the players to reveal their true reservation prices--a major benefit in multiple transaction games.

Posted by: M. Hodak at Oct 15, 2007 10:22:39 AM

Wouldn't the real way to maximize be a sealed-bid auction? Tyler, not knowing Alex's value, would bid $100,000 to ensure that either he gets the painting at what he values for it, or he doesn't spend more than it's worth.

Posted by: jb at Oct 15, 2007 10:51:22 AM

jb,

If its just a sealed bid auction, Tyler might try to bid just a bit more than he thinks Alex will bid. Bidding his full value would assure him that he gets no net benefit from acquiring the painting.

Posted by: josh at Oct 15, 2007 11:25:38 AM

It strikes me that a big problem with this line of analysis is that Tyler's valuation may very often be contingent and variable (depending on other valuations) rather than fixed and independent. That is, my willingness to pay $100,000 for a painting may depend on whether there is a group art-experts willing to bid almost as much. This strikes me as particularly true with paintings where the both monetary and personal values are socially constructed (part -- perhaps most -- of the satisfaction of owning a rare, famous painting derives from the fact that is rare and famous and others would dearly love to be in one's shoes. But if it was actually the case that nobody else wanted the damn thing, then...

Posted by: Slocum at Oct 15, 2007 11:32:49 AM

I must be missing something about the second price auction. If each bidder bids his top bid, Alex bids $20k, Tyler bids $100k, and Tyler gets the painting for $20k. So this is even worse than the open cry auction outcome.

What if the winner pays the average of the top and second place bids? then grandma can get $60k.

Posted by: jake at Oct 15, 2007 12:37:32 PM

In the second bid auction, suppose my true value is $20,000. Okay, I bid $20,000. The next bidder, whose true value is $25,000, immediately bids $1 million. Doesn't he walk away with the the painting for $20,000, having priced out any third bidder?

Posted by: Bloix at Oct 15, 2007 12:54:59 PM

Ah, but there is a great deal of real-world information on how reserve prices work in iterated and non-iterated transactions, on eBay. And consistently, auctions that start with non-reserve prices bring in higher bids than auctions with non-reserve prices.

Now, perhaps the eBay sellers don't know "how to set it." But such a large body of real-world data seems to undermine the foundations of the thesis set out above.

Posted by: vorkosigan1 at Oct 15, 2007 1:08:01 PM

You explanation puts too much emphasis on 2nd price auctions. The nobel press release doesn't even mention 2nd price auctions. Indeed, the Nobel committee has already credited William Vickery for bringing the 2nd price auction idea to the fore (see 1996 award).

Mechanism design is really a general way of thinking about markets and other institutions in a very general way. Key features of a mechanism are the way information is transmitted and shared among the individuals involved in a mechanism and how the information is processed into an outcome.

Communication between individuals takes place in the form of signals--such as offer and reservation prices. Hurwicz thought information so important that he viewed mechanims as communication systems, though this original focus was later broadened out to emphasize other aspects of mechanism design, especially mechanism structure and outcomes.

Signals are not necessarily truthful, so the types of institutional mechanims that are compatible with truth-telling are of great interest. Mechanisms that encourage truth-telling are called incentive compatible.

The upshot is that mechanism design is a particular analytical framework for examining economic institutions. The framework sets up a vocabulary for analysis (signals, structure, outcomes), proposes and borrows criteria for evaluating mechanisms (incentive compatible, Pareto efficiency), and evaluates different economic structures and institutions in a thorough-going way, assessing whether these structures and institutions are in any optimal.

Best regards and Happy Nobel.

Posted by: john at Oct 15, 2007 1:23:45 PM

Why wouldn't I want to start the auction at let say $500k and then continue to reduce the price and have the fist bidder who bid for the price "win".

It would seem then I would receive the highest value for the item. This solution seems easy.

Posted by: Phill at Oct 15, 2007 1:24:33 PM

I am referring above to a "dutch" auction. That seems to maximize the price to that of what the highest bidder wishes to pay.

Posted by: Phill at Oct 15, 2007 1:28:50 PM

"In the second bid auction, suppose my true value is $20,000. Okay, I bid $20,000. The next bidder, whose true value is $25,000, immediately bids $1 million. Doesn't he walk away with the the painting for $20,000, having priced out any third bidder?"

If somebody bids $25,000, the guy who bid $1,000,000 has to pay more than his value. If you think about it, you can't do better than to bid your true value.

By the way, you don't know what other people bid.

Posted by: josh at Oct 15, 2007 1:37:17 PM

What would be the best auction for raising money for a charity? Items auctioned off go to the best bidder, but lots of potential donations are not realized. There is an entry fee which is the cost of a table, but many participants go home without donating all they could have.

Posted by: jthorc at Oct 15, 2007 1:43:20 PM

"Why wouldn't I want to start the auction at let say $500k and then continue to reduce the price and have the fist bidder who bid for the price "win".

It would seem then I would receive the highest value for the item. This solution seems easy."

This depends on how close the first and second bidder are in their valuations, as well as what they estimate for the others valuation (as well as what they estimate the other estimates for their valuation). People want SURPLUS value, they may let the price drop at the risk of losing the item. In a second price auction you can't improve your situation by giving a false valuation. The seller is then theoretically guaranteed the second highest valuation which may or may not be more than they would receive from the Dutch auction.

Posted by: josh at Oct 15, 2007 1:43:29 PM

I don't think Tyler would bid at $100K in a Dutch auction - it would be worth the risk to hold off for a while. How long? Ask someone who knows, which ain't me.

Posted by: tom s. at Oct 15, 2007 1:44:25 PM

For Phill at 1:24:33PM: How do you know that the 500k are greater than the maximum value between the two bidders?

Posted by: Nikkei at Oct 15, 2007 1:45:16 PM

"If somebody bids $25,000, the guy who bid $1,000,000 has to pay more than his value."

That should say $25,001. Sorry

Posted by: josh at Oct 15, 2007 1:46:09 PM

The revelation principle aside, isn't Alex in this post just summarizing the contributions of *Gordon Tullock*?

Posted by: zzzzzzzz at Oct 15, 2007 1:46:39 PM

"People want SURPLUS value, they may let the price drop at the risk of losing the item. In a second price auction you can't improve your situation by giving a false valuation. The seller is then theoretically guaranteed the second highest valuation which may or may not be more than they would receive from the Dutch auction." -Josh.

But then he is not going to go past this "surplus" value in a normal bid either is he? You can't have it both ways.

You can't say X is the price he is willing to pay and then if I give a solution, now you say. X is not the price he is willing to pay.

Why is he willing to pay more in one type of auction then in another? please explain in detail.

If these are rules unstated in this problem please identify them to me.

But just saying "well now that you come up with a optimal solution I am going to say the rules work different." is pretty unfair.

100k is listed at the max price he will pay for the painting listed in the problem. I did not see any additional qualification. If they are so please stated them and explain them unambiguously.

Posted by: Phill at Oct 15, 2007 2:11:27 PM

Are you sure we can't boil them in oil?

That's the classic Neocon solution, of course, and the great thing about it is that no study or learning is required. All you need is a sturdy kettle and some kind of cheap oil, to be burned for the necessary heat and also inside the kettle.

Of course we wouldn't *really* boil the bidders. Ha ha, silly. Just put their feet in, while they reconsider their bids. Then off to Gitmo lest they reveal our "interrogation" techniques.

Considering the trillion dollars they've stolen without any fear of prosecution, I'd say the Neos know a lot more about economics than they get credit for.

Posted by: Ralph at Oct 15, 2007 2:23:48 PM

Phil,

He values the painting at 100,000 in both situations.

In the second price auction, he will bid 100,000. Why?

Because:

If he bids 101,000, he may have to buy the painting for more than he values it. He would have been better off bidding 100,000.

If he bid 101,000 and nobody bids between his bid and his true value, he is no better off than if he had bid 100,000 as he will pay the price he would have paid anyway.

If he bids 99,000, somebody may bid between his bid and his true value. He will have lost the opportunity to buy the painting for less than his value earning a nice surplus. He would have been better off bidding 100,000.

If he bids 99,000 and nobody bids between his bid and his true value, he is no better off than if he had bid 100,000. He will pay the price he would have paid anyway.

Those are the only four options for the second price auction.

Now for a Dutch Auction:

He will not bid higher than 100,000.

Now, when 100,000 comes, he may bid on it, and receive no surplus value, or he may take a roll of the dice and hope nobody values it higher than 95,000. If he does this successfully, he is unambiguously better off.

The Dutch auction does not necessarily get people to reveal their true values, because they might be better off letting the price fall and hoping nobody else bids on it.

In the second price auction, no bid can make you better off than your true value.

Sorry, if I was unclear before.

Posted by: josh at Oct 15, 2007 2:29:53 PM

"I don't think Tyler would bid at $100K in a Dutch auction - it would be worth the risk to hold off for a while. How long? Ask someone who knows, which ain't me."

If Tyler was risk neutral, knew that he had only one competitor, that his value and Alex's were both drawn from a uniform distribution, he would wait until the clock ticked down to $50,000. His optimal bid (in Dutch clock and sealed bid) is V[(n-1)/n], where V = his value ($100,000) and n = the number of participants in the auction.

Also, English Clock and 2nd price sealed bid auctions only incentivize truthful revelation of values when there is only one unit of a good being auctioned, or when each participant wants a maximum of one unit. In multi-unit demand auctions, truth-revealing prices are trickier.

Posted by: AMW at Oct 15, 2007 3:03:11 PM

"The Dutch auction does not necessarily get people to reveal their true values, because they might be better off letting the price fall and hoping nobody else bids on it."

I thought the problem was to maximize revenue.

In the dutch auction if the buyer has no way to know what the other buyers will pay (like it is stated) then it seems to me they are forced to pay what they feel is the true value of item even if he wants it a reduced price.

Actually what is optimal for him is to pay $1 less then value he values it. Unless he has ways to come up with percentages someone will try to buy it at a different price. But the problem is explained that no one has any knowledge of this of what others value the price at.

If he values something as X that means it is the equivalent of X in dollars. That is the definition.

Therefor if he gets it for X-1 then he is gaining in value but if he waits he will lose that gain and he has no data to know what chance he has to lose this.

If you were to say well he thinks that at each reduction of $100 there will be a 1% chance it will be bid on. Then we can do a lot more with this problem, but that is not what the problem states.

I think a better example would be attributing a "fair" amount for the item.

I came up with a similar system for this real life problem.

Two people are partners in a business the both later hate each other. Neither want to be partners anymore but they don't really want to sell. How can one sell to other for a fair price and who sales to whom?

I came up with they both write down a price they think is fair for half the business. The lowest of the two prices then receives what he wrote from the other for his share of the business.

This makes both write down what they believe is the true value and the one who "loses" will get payed for what he believes the true value is and the one who "wins" will always pay less then what he feels is the true value.

I imagine others have come up with this too.


Posted by: Phill at Oct 15, 2007 3:04:05 PM

"If Tyler was risk neutral, knew that he had only one competitor, that his value and Alex's were both drawn from a uniform distribution, he would wait until the clock ticked down to $50,000." -AMW

Which is still considerably more than 20k.

I understand this, and I know it's the proper way of figuring it out but it always bothers me to say when we don't know the odds of something to assume thats it's equally distributed.

I mean it lets you do the math but it really is kind of just making a number up. To me I think of the distribution more as undefined but that doesn't let you do any math. I guess no knowledge can be considered a special case of partial knowledge. But in a system like auctioning you know that it is not going to be an evenly distributed system even though you might not know what that distribution is like.

Sorry, I play too much poker.

Posted by: Phill at Oct 15, 2007 3:16:29 PM

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