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The Straight Talk from Market Prices
According to the betting markets (at least intrade.com), Ron Paul has officially passed John McCain in terms of the probability of winning the Republican nomination. Amazing - however you read the tea leaves.
Thanks to Tim Groseclose for the pointer.
Posted by Alex Tabarrok on September 21, 2007 at 02:56 PM in Data Source | Permalink
Comments
Betfair markets still favor McCain, modestly, over Paul.
In either case, and in both markets, the candidates are now substantial longshots. (The difference is that Paul has always been a longshot, and McCain was once considered the favorite.)
Posted by: Mike Giberson at Sep 21, 2007 3:41:47 PM
Maybe the rEVOLution is for real? I see more Ron Paul bumper stickers than I see of any other candidate. I will say that Dr. Paul's supporters are passionate.
Posted by: subrosa at Sep 21, 2007 3:50:43 PM
Speaking of betting markets, National Journal has launched a fantasy betting market which runs on the same platform as Intrade. I would really like to see more ridicule of it, but it seems few people even realize why it's a silly idea.
Posted by: neil at Sep 21, 2007 4:40:19 PM
One possibility is that the candidates' supporters are reverse arbitraging in these markets to make a statement. If that's true, then we should look for an explanation of why Ron Paul's supporters might be more willing to lose money (on average) to manipulate the odds.
Posted by: Telnar at Sep 21, 2007 7:40:38 PM
it all depends on the financial size of the market. if it doesn't take much to boost Paul then his supporters easily do that for him.
Anyone who has spent any time on the internet knows that Paul has a spam brigade on the internet, mobbing Pajamas Media polls, etc.
Posted by: Anon at Sep 21, 2007 8:08:04 PM
Paul's supporters are more passionate than most, but there is simply not enough of them at this point in time. Everyone knew McCain's campaign has been falling apart, so this event should have come as no surprise. Ron Paul has a solid base of supporters that is slowly growing, but online polls are hardly an accurate indicator no matter how you look at it.
Posted by: Paul at Sep 21, 2007 10:39:50 PM
You keep bringing up internet spam. In 88 Dr. Paul got 500,000 votes in the presidential election (those people still support Dr. Paul). He has 63,000 my space friends. He has 4,000,000 hits on search engines. The Pajama Media poll that Dr. Paul won every week until they removed his name again usually totaled 7-800 votes for Dr. Paul, harly spam. If we were to spam we would break the counters. He just went to 5% on the Gallop poll last week. Take a look at all the straw polls he's won or placed 2nd of 3rd. Every rally accross the country draws over 1000 people. Get off the spam trip and realize there are a lot of us Ron Paul supporters out here, almost 1000 Meetup Groups with our Boots on the Ground organizing for upcoming presidential primaries with one goal in mind, to place as many delegates as we can starting at the precinct level.
Posted by: Glen at Sep 21, 2007 11:30:16 PM
Ron Paul's support is real and growing fast. He is now hitting around 4% in polls that do not include: Independants, Democrats, Libertarians, non-registered and new Republicans and those who don't have a land line. From everything I've seen Ron's support is MOSTLY from the groups not being polled. Over half of Paul's support come from those 25 and younger, a large portion of these ONLY have cell phones. Internet polls are not to be entirely discarded, but they are certainly NOT an accurate guage as to the rest of computerless U.S. Ron Paul's popularity on the internet is real and infact overwelming, there is no need to spam, Ron Paul supporters are a majority. There have been several other indications of infact widespread and respectable numbers of supports. Both Fox Debates used text message polling and Ron placed a close 2nd in the 1st Debate and an overwelming 1st in the last debate. Contrary to what Shawn Hannity may tell you, it is IMPOSSIBLE to text vote more than once from a single phone. If you don't believe me try it for yourself! Also Ron Paul has placed very well in in-the-flesh straw polls around the country. Just today Ron placed a close 2nd behind Huckabee in the South Carolina poll hosted by Focus on the Family (Right Wing Evangelicals who mostly support GWB). This a very respectable result when Ron Paul is one of the most defiant candidates running against the War in Iraq. It have to chuckle when I hear some people say that Ron Paul supporters WONT actually go out and vote on election day. That has got to be the most insane double-think I've heard! How many other candidates have 40,000+ grassroots volunteers spreading the word in over 741 Cities and towns? Talk about Networth! How much is an active volunteer worth who is deeply concerned about the Constitution and the direction of this country. How much is 1 person worth willing to speak to thousands of people about Ron Paul? I can tell you from my personal experience that after speaking to several thousand people it is clear that all Ron Paul supporters have to do is spread the word diligently and we will have a majority come the primaries. Don't be naive about the revolution that is taking place in this country. We are patriots, dedicated to the Constitution, we will not allow it to be taken away.
You may or may not believe anything that I am telling you. The 3rd Quarter #'s are coming out soon, maybe then you'll see what kind of support Dr. Paul has.
Posted by: Shawn at Sep 21, 2007 11:47:14 PM
to those equivocating these results, paul has steadily increased 1 point per month on intrade. that means by january he would be between 8-10 percent. those are good odds for a government hacking libertarian nobody fron coastal texas (to the press, that is). after 3rd quarter numbers come out on the 15th, paul's continuallyly ascending candidacy will... continue to do just that.
Posted by: jo at Sep 22, 2007 2:11:35 AM
glen, shawn, jo,
I hope you guys are right. I first met Ron Paul 27 years ago, and I've been a fan ever since. I'll certainly vote for him if I get a chance to do so.
Posted by: John Dewey at Sep 22, 2007 6:52:52 AM
Shawn,
You had me until you write that over half of Paul's support is 25 and under. Those people are not known for voting.
Posted by: Hei Lun Chan at Sep 22, 2007 7:49:23 AM
Ron Paul doesn't focus on those who "are known to vote" for the lying, stupid and corrupted politicians in the past. He focus on the other 50% of the american people who never had anyone to vote for.
Posted by: Jaba at Sep 22, 2007 8:14:01 AM
Hei Lun Chan,
I agree - young folks aren't known for voting. I have participated in past political movements with college age kids but there is something really different this time. It is tough to put into words and although I am not a religious person, the best way I can describe it is a spiritual awakening. In other words, those young kids aren't just excited about a candidate they promise to vote for. They have deep concerns about the future of the economy, about the possibility of the draft being reinstated, about their civil liberties being stripped away. And Ron Paul doesn't represent just a politician to vote for, but a hero that is championing their future. And I see the real fruits of that passion every day in the real world, where they work their tails off campaigning. Believe me, no one puts that much effort into something and then doesn't vote!
The other point to consider is that even if those under 25 don't vote (which as I said, I just can't believe) - they are providing huge amounts of grassroots campaigning at the local level. They are the working army of believers, helping spread the message to older voters.
Posted by: Brian at Sep 22, 2007 8:17:15 AM
Paul's anti-abortion stance creeps out my 22-yo daughter and she considers herself a libertarian.
Posted by: Russ Nelson at Sep 22, 2007 9:19:09 AM
Russ,
Then your daughter should be calmed by the fact that even thou he is pro life he believes this is not a federal issue and that it should be decided by the states. That means he will not enforce his strongly held belief because the constitution says "Congress shall make no law". He delivered 4000 babies so he has more than a passing interest in the subject. That is integrity. Ron Paul is the anti-politician, instead of seeing what people want and being that person, he shows you who HE IS and asks for your support.
Posted by: brian at Sep 22, 2007 10:18:07 AM
Ron Paul hasn't just surpassed John McCain; he's replaced him as the candidate who speaks honestly and doesn't pander for votes. I'm a pro-choice Democrat seriously considering switching in the primaries. Gold standard remains a problem.
Posted by: linda at Sep 22, 2007 10:59:05 AM
linda you should look up some more research on Ron Paul and Gold standard because I remember him saying on TV we shouldn't go back to it but doing something else. I'm sure their a youtube video out there on it
but that doesn't mean fans of the gold standard doesn't support him but don't get the two confused, see what the he actually says about it
Posted by: Travis at Sep 22, 2007 12:47:09 PM
An interesting fact to read on the day that I saw my first Ron Paul bumper sticker here in Connecticut.
Posted by: Yancey Ward at Sep 22, 2007 12:50:36 PM
I wonder if an MTV duet of Ron Paul and Sean Paul singing "Legalize It" would help or hurt his campaign.
Posted by: Russ R at Sep 22, 2007 1:01:59 PM
we need 8 yrs of Dr. Paul to reverse 30yrs of activist judges, government handouts & unconstitutional foreign aid.
RP 08'
Posted by: dennis at Sep 22, 2007 1:36:07 PM
Paul's stance on immigration makes him a non-starter for me.
Posted by: GoodneesOfFit at Sep 22, 2007 2:07:36 PM
that people fear a message that government, not citizens, are limited by the constitution is a very sad commentary on the lack of wisdom of "the people."
these same individuals, with the strong-arm of the media, cherry-pick every minutia of the positions they can not tolerate, even if it is constitutional law, and bring up a notion that one must agree 100% in order to support a constitutional form of government. of course, the all seeing eye of the corrupt establishment is wide shut where the path to business as usual and the freedom to obey, is concerned.
Posted by: number9 at Sep 22, 2007 2:49:41 PM
Unfortunately, no one can be told *what* the rEVOLution is. You have to see it for yourself.
Posted by: Jamie Jackson at Sep 22, 2007 3:14:14 PM
People keep saying it's spam but he wins the debate polls, the straw polls, etc. If you youtube his videos it sure seems like a lot of people are coming out to hear him speak.
Posted by: Double Check at Sep 22, 2007 3:28:30 PM
Was just at the flea market supporting Ron. Pastors and others of deep religious faith respond favorably to his message of personal liberty and freedom from, to name one , the tyranny of tax exempt status obligations to the state for their churches to run. Not to mention the revisionism of the Bible that's going on upsets them immensely. We brought cool water and spread the message good today. The bible in one hand and the constitution in the other: the most solid platform a candidate can have.
God bless,
English
Posted by: English at Sep 22, 2007 5:27:41 PM
I just heard that Ron Paul delivered Selena the famous Mecican singer that was murdered. I hope this helps his campaign with the Latinos
Marcella
Posted by: marcella at Sep 22, 2007 7:30:55 PM
I am excited about Ron Paul as well.
We must no forget, though that for him or a man almost as good (issues wise), Tom Tancredo or any other good for the US (if there are many of them in the current crop) will need delegates at the RNC convention.
See-
http://www.newswithviews.com/Devvy/kidd251.htm
I am hoping there is time. We know the neocons will try to stack the deck. I don't think it's too early to think this over.
EricFox
Posted by: EricFox at Sep 22, 2007 9:39:05 PM
Its unfortunate that we have come to believe that the Govt will be the end all be all of everything. Taking responsibility for yourself I guess could be scary if you relied on "others" to do that for you. I will be voting for Ron Paul for the simple reason he isn't a politician, hes a statesman and I know when I listen to him I can believe him. I can find video after video of him now, and 30 years ago and he hasn't wavered one bit.
Also I dont like the Washington insiders playing politics when we have good true heros in Iraq dying while they do "business as usual"
Posted by: Patriot at Sep 22, 2007 11:29:38 PM
I have to chuckle when I read that the under 25 vote will not happen. I have three children that are 23, 20 and 18. All registered and ready to vote in both the primary and the election. In fact, my 18 year old knew and loved Ron Paul before anyone else and totally converted us all. What people don't realize it that young people did not vote before because they felt that they really did not have a choice. Now they are excited and will vote. They also do not listen to the main stream news. They get the real news via the internet. They are more precocious then we were at their age. For that I will always love the internet. Ron Paul is the only republican that stands a chance against the Democrats. Go Ron, go Liberty and go Peace. Dr. Ron Paul 2008.
Posted by: Barbara at Sep 23, 2007 10:24:38 AM
Wow, from listening to his supporters, Ron Paul reminds me a lot of Chuck Norris. Do his tears cure cancer too?
Ron Paul was the fourth wise man, who gave baby Jesus the gift of beard, which he carried with him until he died. The other three wise men were enraged by the preference that Jesus showed to Ron's gift, and arranged to have him written out of the bible. All three died soon after of mysterious roundhouse-kick related injuries.
Posted by: John S. at Sep 23, 2007 9:53:48 PM
The statement that Paul favors the gold standard isn't the whole truth. He favors the denationalization of currency, like Hayek did. He thinks this would cause the market to once again select gold as its currency of choice. While I support the denationalization of money, I hope we don't use gold again. Digging the stuff out of the ground just to pass it around seems silly.
Posted by: G at Sep 24, 2007 3:13:56 AM
In the (toy money) betting markets I think Giuliani is very overrated, Romney slightly overrated, Thompson very underrated, Huckabee slightly underrated.
There is just no way Giuliani can survive once the dirt starts flying. One thing is the well-known personal scandals (which I for once think may say something about his character - it's more than your average infidelity), but even more so, his anti-gun, pro-choice, shockingly authoritarian views just won't be accepted. He has too much of the things republicans have long painted as the democrats worst features.
Romney seems to me to be a bit of a political chameleon, but he's a mormon. And none to clever, it seems. I just don't see it happening.
Thompson, I think will be the neo-republican's choice, the choice of smart people who for some reason approves of what Bush has been doing. (As Giuliani is for the stupid...) with background in tobacco lobbying and shilling for the AEI, he comes with a certificate of guaranteed pre-corruptedness. He will have no problem finding friends in high places, once the race really gets going. And that matters, so I think he's actually the most likely nominee.
Huckabee I think is underrated, because he's arguably the candidate closest to the usual republican voters. Surely that has to count for something? No? Perhaps not.
Ron Paul? I have no idea. Perhaps too fringe, but then again, no one else seems realistic either. Personally, I like him for his anti-war, consistent pro-life (meaning anti-death penalty as well) views, but not for anything else, particularly not the global warming denial.
Perhaps it doesn't matter? You won't have a republican president anyway. Hillary or Obama will win against any and all of these...
Posted by: Harald Korneliussen at Sep 24, 2007 3:06:44 PM
Well he might have delivered Selena, but he wants no amnesty for the illegal immigrants already here. Also he wants to put an end to birthright citizenship. That might not help too much with the Latino vote. In my opinion the pros definitely out weigh the cons.
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Posted by: 无缝钢管 at Nov 13, 2007 9:16:26 PM
Though I realize I might be chiming in late on this I wanted to respond to Harald's concern about Ron Paul's "global warming denial". I ran across someone in my office who thought Ron Paul was in denial as well (I work for an environmental consulting firm), I told him to Google Ron Paul + Global Warming because I was fairly certain I'd never heard or read anything by Ron Paul outright denying he thought humans were the primary problem. When I did, I found the following statement taken from a You Tube video made directly by Ron Paul:
"Global temperatures have been warming since the Little Ice Age. Studies within the respectable scientific community have shown that human beings are most likely a part of this process. As a Congressman, I've done a number of things to support environmentally friendly policies. I have been active in the Green Scissors campaign to cut environmentally harmful spending, I've opposed foreign wars for oil, and I've spoken out against government programs that encourage development in environmentally sensitive areas, such as flood insurance."
Even though I work in the environmental field, I myself am quite confused about the global warming debate. However, like Ron Paul, I would prefer to err on the side of caution. Besides, I've always been about keeping the earth nice!
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