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Avian Flu - update
Avian Flu has been out of the news for a while but the threat remains. We are just now learning how lucky we got last year. It has been confirmed that H5N1 can transmit human to human.
A woman on the Indonesian island of Sumatra caught the H5N1 bird flu virus from poultry in May last year [2006] and passed it to relatives. A new study by a US university has apparently confirmed for the first time that bird flu has been transmitted from human to human. It is the nightmare possibility that health authorities have been fearing ever since the disease first appeared.
It happened in Indonesia last year [2006] and reveals the world only narrowly avoided a global bird flu pandemic....Of 8 family members who caught the disease, 7 were soon dead.
Posted by Alex Tabarrok on September 5, 2007 at 09:14 AM in Medicine | Permalink
Comments
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Posted by: Mark Brouwer at Sep 5, 2007 10:06:02 AM
Doesn't this high level of lethality argue for the proposition that any outbreaks will burn themselves out rather quickly, before a pandemic-level outbreak is reached ?
Posted by: Affe at Sep 5, 2007 10:51:41 AM
The lethality would constrain spread were it not for high mobility between population centers.
Posted by: Eric at Sep 5, 2007 11:34:10 AM
Oh God! It’s really terrible! I’m always afraid of things that I can’t control… and this seems to me to be like this.
Posted by: Daphne at Sep 5, 2007 11:51:05 AM
There have been a number of cases of human to human transmission. The paper you reference is really about a statistical method for detecting H2H in clusters. See our post about it here.
Posted by: revere at Sep 5, 2007 12:03:50 PM
Affe: Unfortunately, no. We explain this more here. Warning: it is a bit technical.
Posted by: revere at Sep 5, 2007 12:06:50 PM
Bird-Flu may have not featured in some of the media but human cases of the killer virus have been regularly
popping up in countries in the far east.
The Bird Flu virus has been infecting poultry all over the world.
birdflunewsflash.
PS. I found your blog in www.birdflubreakingnews.com.
Posted by: birdflunewsflash at Sep 5, 2007 12:33:27 PM
With all this destroying of birds who might or might not
have the flu, won't we have a lot of extra bugs crawling
around??
Posted by: L Hanson at Sep 5, 2007 1:30:45 PM
Does this mean I should cancel my Texas dove hunting trip this weekend?
Posted by: brent at Sep 5, 2007 1:32:01 PM
So one instance of human transmission means we just barely missed a pandemic? And why didn't the virus spread, why did it stop with this one family, if it's so virulent? Isn't the fact that there was only one instance of bird-to-man transmission and it hardly spread at all mean that the virus is NOT dangerous to man? This is the overhype of the millenium (so far).
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