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Mobility
Here is the latest, by Emmanuel Saez and co-authors; note I linked to this paper yesterday but now I have looked at it. Here is one key sentence:
...we find that short-term and long-term mobility among all workers has been quite stable since the 1950s.
To disaggregate, note that mobility among males is down but mobility among females is up. (It is an interesting question whether there is a causal relationship here.)
Here is a much earlier MR post on mobility. Keep these links in mind next time you hear claims about mobility, and I believe you will hear many such claims in September. See also our earlier posts on Dalton Conley, who shows just how much inequality is generated within the same family.
It should be noted that Saez is the leading measurer of income inequality and also a critic of such inequality. In his view a constant level of mobility means that no force is offsetting ongoing inequality. I believe he would likely read his own paper as support for a left-wing view of the world and as support for concern with income inequality. He would not read his work as reason to dismiss the mobility issue. My view differs, as I worry about mobility -- can a hard-working person get ahead? -- but I do not worry about inequality per se, nor do I require of mobility that it overturn a particular level of inequality.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 31, 2007 at 07:06 AM in Data Source | Permalink
Comments
Tyler, I have not looked at the research on mobility. Given the large changes in age composition of population over the past 60 years, I'd like to know if Saez and other researchers have taken into account their impact. My impression is that today in the US and almost everywhere young hard-working people can get ahead much easier than 50 years ago.
Posted by: Edgardo at Aug 31, 2007 8:15:32 AM
The paper also says:
"However, the stability in long-term earnings mobility among all workers masks substantial heterogeneity across demographic groups."
I think this means that the devil is in the details.
There have been many debates of late over when it is proper to use average data. When dealing with issues of class, averages are, by definition, inappropriate. What is being studied is class differences, after all.
This is the old "Bill Gates and I are worth $30 billion on average" error.
Posted by: robertdfeinman at Aug 31, 2007 10:21:31 AM
"as I worry about mobility -- can a hard-working person get ahead? -- but I do not worry about inequality per se"
Well, if you worry about mobility maybe you should worry more about inequality. I can't imagine a society with very high earnings inequality and perfect mobility. Countries with the highest mobilities (Scandinavian countries) are also the ones with the lowest inequalities. The two are correlated. Of course not perfectly, some corrective mechanisms can work, but correlated nonetheless.
I guess that's why you added "per se" after "I do not worry about inequality" but I still wanted to make this point...
Posted by: Smith at Aug 31, 2007 12:08:41 PM
"Countries with the highest mobilities (Scandinavian countries) are also the ones with the lowest inequalities. The two are correlated. Of course not perfectly, some corrective mechanisms can work, but correlated nonetheless."
Ah, but only when you look at *relative* mobility, not absolute dollar mobility. And the positive correlation between relative mobility and equality is very trivially explained: it is easier to move between the income quintiles in a very equal society than the income quintiles in an unequal society. So, in both countries you might move from a job where you earn $25k after taxes to a job where you earn $35k after taxes, but in once country that is a one quintile move and in the other, more equal, society that is a two quintile move.
When you look at real dollar mobility, our mobility is higher than Europe's mobility (much higher than, e.g. Sweden's). It is also interesting to take "natural" mobility into account, rather than controlling for age. Over a lifetime we move much more in real dollar terms (read: American dream) than they do in Europe. When compared to people of the same age, the difference is less pronounced.
I have written some examples written up on my website:
http://economicliberty.net/mobility_stats.htm
Posted by: liberty at Aug 31, 2007 12:24:59 PM
My research topic was intergenerational and intragenerational occupational mobility and I found that even now Cairness non-competing groups theory is in operation.
Posted by: GVV at Aug 31, 2007 12:44:35 PM
Hey, rdf, I didn't expect to find you around here after you hadn't posted in a while. You claimed at Dani Rodrik's blog that it is not worth dignifying libertarianism to bother arguing with it, and it will be hard to avoid that here. I don't have time to read this stuff, but I know you're interested in authoritarianism and I found some writings by an academic named John Jay Ray in Australia on it. You can find them at http://jonjayray.tripod.com/auth.html
He strikes me as biased, but who isn't? His accounts of Neo-Nazis are interesting though
Posted by: TGGP at Aug 31, 2007 3:50:29 PM
Figure 4A answers one question that has been mentioned repeatedly in discussions on income inequality. About 35% if those with incomes at the very top (.1%), do not stay there. For them it is a one shot deal, probably cashing in on many years of work.
Posted by: joan at Aug 31, 2007 4:29:13 PM
Figure 4A answers one question that has been mentioned repeatedly in discussions on income inequality. About 35% if those with incomes at the very top (.1%), do not stay there. For them it is a one shot deal, probably cashing in on many years of work.
Posted by: joan at Aug 31, 2007 4:31:42 PM
TGGP:
I've run across this fellow before - a true original. We even had a bit of back and forth a couple of years ago.
As for arguing with libertarians, as you said I consider this unproductive. I still try to cite some data when I can find it and it seems relevant. I also try to point out biases in analysis or assumptions.
There are others who are not libertarians who read some of these sites, and they may find hearing additional viewpoints interesting.
I'm still waiting for some remarks on Saez's qualification about effects being "masked".
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