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China sentence of the day
A politically savvy recasting of this issue [the exchange rate peg] as one of Chinese monetary-policy independence could help solve many problems.
Here is much more.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 25, 2007 at 07:22 AM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
The only problem being that China enjoys monetary independence already because it employs capital controls to prohibit the free flow of capital into and out of the economy. In the context of the so-called "uholy trinity," they have opted for a fixed exchange rate and an autonomous monetary policy at the expense of capital mobility.
Posted by: Jo at Aug 25, 2007 9:46:28 AM
The Chinese notion of means and ends are quite different from that in the west. In China, stability is often treated as an end rather than a means. Economic development, on the other hand, is perceived, if only subconsciously, as a means toward stability. The idea of an independent monetary policy that ties to a strictly rule of inflation targeting is "all lovely." But in order to achieve it with an extremely unreliable monetary transmission system, the country must go through a period of instability, and great uncertainty. I doubt the Chinese government would do it simply because it seems… purpose (stability)-defeating. On a different note, if a strictly rule-driven approach has faced so many challenges as inflation-targeting has in the West, it would mostly likely have more trouble in China. The Chinese are far more masterful with discretion than with rules.
Posted by: Yan Li at Aug 25, 2007 2:53:13 PM
Excellent points by yan li above esp the part about going through a period instability on the way
to monetary bliss.
Posted by: sa at Aug 25, 2007 6:27:44 PM
re the point on capital controls I made this morning, see
http://www.bis.org/publ/work233.pdf
Posted by: Jo at Aug 25, 2007 9:05:33 PM
Unemployment is the most important statistic in China. The government can use agricultural subsidies to drive down food prices, or make huge agricultural purchases from the U.S. to reduce the trade deficit. They're already subsidizing energy and electricity.
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