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Who is a first-best economist?
Dani Rodrik, who has become one of the very best econ bloggers, writes:
Among commentators in the blogosphere, I think Gary Becker, Tyler Cowen, Greg Mankiw, and Brad De Long (more often than not) are first-best economists.
(That's not "best economists," by the way...) What does this mean?
The gut instinct...is to apply a simple supply-demand framework to the question at hand. In this world, every tax has an economic deadweight loss, every restriction on individual behavior reduces the size of the economic pie, distribution and efficiency can be neatly separated, market failures are presumed non-existent unless proved otherwise (and to be addressed only by the appropriate Pigovian tax or subsidy), people are rational and forward-looking to the first order of approximation, demand curves always slope down (and supply curves up), and general-equilibrium interactions do not overturn partial-equilibrium logic. The First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics is proof that unfettered markets work best. No matter how technical, complex, and full of surprises these economists' own research might be, their take on the issues of the day are driven by a straightforward, almost knee-jerk logic.
The second group -- "second best" economists -- is Akerlof, Stiglitz, Shiller, Krugman, and Rodrik himself; I believe you know their approach.
I think of myself as a better-than-first-best economist. On average market solutions have positive Pareto-relevant externalities, if only through supplying experimentation and strengthening social norms in favor of commerce. That's true even for the market in thumbtacks, if you consider it as feeding into a broader social stream. Externalities are virtually everywhere and often I prefer to think in terms of Hayek's theory of spontaneous order. Where markets should be allowed to operate, markets are usually too weak in their reach and scope. Yes there is a continuum of social returns but only rarely are we close to an optimum.
But I don't mean this as a plea for laissez-faire. Governments must produce public goods, maintain social order, and of course support markets. At the margin, those activities, such as imposing accountability under the law, are also largely underprovided. For the appropriate selection of policies, government is also better-than-first-best, despite its apparent static inefficiencies.
An oversimplified version of my view is that anything good is underprovided at the margin. This follows from a belief in strong network and peer effects, and a belief in the relevance of basic sociology.
I favor much less government than Akerlof or Stiglitz or Rodrik himself; yes I view them as "second best" when it comes to government just as they are second best when it comes to markets. But I'm often 4th or 5th best when it comes to what government does.
Who's really the utopian? And how did government ever work itself up to that number two?
Posted by Tyler Cowen on August 6, 2007 at 02:53 PM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
I don't know that I'm getting what you're meaning here by first best, but the one economist in the blogosphere who is my personal first best is Don Boudreaux.
Posted by: Tom Kelly at Aug 6, 2007 3:01:46 PM
Rodrik's "first-best"/"second-best" is the usual hackneyed strawman. Too bad there are legion bad economists to nod their heads to it.
I agree with Tyler about positive externalities of free processes, but the real action is Tyler's later point, how much of a joke government and politics are. Those guys won't even fess up to the obvious government disasters--k-12, FDA, drug prohibition, postal monopoly, etc. etc.
Posted by: Daniel Klein at Aug 6, 2007 3:35:31 PM
You should expand this post or write a few more on this. This framework is hugely important and taken for granted by Economists and all but invisible to laymen.
You could call "first-besters" idealists, and "second-besters" the yeah-buts, and it might be more clear as to what the difference between the two groups is.
"I think of myself as a better-than-first-best economist. " I would suspect that Rodrick thinks of himself the same way, as a better than second-best economist. That is, the gains to be realized from intelligent regulations also have positive Pareto-relevant externalities. He must, btw, or he couldn't truly be a "second-bester".
Also, I think this a the difference between you and Alex by the way, is that you recognize that the guy in the other side of the argument might have a genuine and well reasoned approach to the argument, while Alex takes a more cynical view.
Posted by: mickslam at Aug 6, 2007 3:37:06 PM
First-best here refers to the tendency to go for the pure market solution to a problem wherever one might exist, and applying a market logic to the side effects of the solutions to an original problem, or externalities. Second-best means recognizing the side effects from the outset, and going for the nuanced solution that takes these side effects into account.
In trade, for instance, free trade is the first-best solution: the one that would yield the most efficient outcome given that a set of conditions is satisfied. Protectionism or industrial policy are second-best solutions, in that they recognize that the above set of conditions is seldom satisfied, and try to compensate accordingly.
The terms "first-best" or "second-best" can be misleading in that they may convey a false value of judgement (direct, as in "first-best" being "the best", or ironically implied as in "first-best" being really "the not so great"). I don't think either approach in instrinsecally superior to the other, and ultimately it's up to the numbers to decide who's right or wrong.
Posted by: unarmed at Aug 6, 2007 3:44:20 PM
Tom Kelly,
If you follow the link and actually read Dani's piece, you'll see an explanation of first-best economics vs. second-best.
It's definitely worth a read. For what it's worth, I think Boudreaux would fall into the first-best camp, according to Rodrik's definition.
Posted by: Biomed Tim at Aug 6, 2007 3:45:54 PM
Biomed Tim,
I'm capable of actually reading, but I was responding to the title and time sensitive to the fact that I might be able to get my comment in as the first comment to express appreciation for Boudreaux.
Posted by: Tom Kelly at Aug 6, 2007 4:08:53 PM
When is an economist really allowed to be knee-jerk?
What I mean is that the typical economist doesn't speak outside of their expertise, and rarely gets called to do so. In class, they stick with the text. In research, they stick to their research. In the blogosphere, they rarely give the end-all ruling on any matter. In this blog, Cowen ends by asking a few questions.
So is Rodrik really griping about? That economists give conflicting quotes when reporters ask them for comment?
Posted by: JH at Aug 6, 2007 4:19:21 PM
It's really all about who "Thinks things through." No matter what, as far as Dani is concerned, Tyler will never "Think things through" enough to be as well-informed and insightful as he (Dani) is. And from, say, Dan Boudreaux's perspetive, Dani doesn't "Think things through" enough and see the downside of his "Second-Best" approach, and therefore isn't as insightful as he (Dan) is.
And so on and so forth. Two sentences into Dani's article and I could already tell that he was going to explain that because he "saw the bigger picture" that he was enlightened, and everyone who disagreed with him was an ignorant hack.
Posted by: jb at Aug 6, 2007 4:50:49 PM
unarmed...thanks for the explanation; that helped me understand the issue.
Posted by: shawn at Aug 6, 2007 5:21:28 PM
A properly motivated economist can justify just about any policy via an appropriate second best argument. There will be some honest economists, like Rodrik, who sincerely go out trying to find appropriate policy solutions for second best worlds. But, there'll be other ones that start from the policy that needs to be justified and then work backwards to the second best argument that gets you there. It's tough to set rules such that the "good" second best interventions are approved while keeping out the shoddy ones.
Tyler and I edited a book on market failure a few years back. I shortly thereafter received an email from a fellow in the the UK civil service describing the policy he wanted and asking what would be the best market failure argument he could use to support the policy. It's this kind of thing that worries me about second best arguments.
Posted by: Eric Crampton at Aug 6, 2007 6:19:07 PM
Not only do economists disagree, but each of them knows that he is above average.
Posted by: robertdfeinman at Aug 6, 2007 9:37:09 PM
I would actually like to see a poll done on economists asking whether they personally were above average, and to compare that to polls of the general public on driving ability that we love to laugh about. That might be a good test case for Caplan's theory that economists (or the more educated/intelligent) are more rational.
Posted by: TGGP at Aug 7, 2007 12:18:43 AM
"I think of myself as a better-than-first-best economist. On average market solutions have positive Pareto-relevant externalities, if only through supplying experimentation and strengthening social norms in favor of commerce..."
--Please help me to understand this paragraph, because I don't understand how you figure that this trumps Lipsey and Lancaster. Unless, with Hayek's spontaneous order, you are discarding equilibrium. Are you suggesting something like a systems-science syllogism, rather than a proof?
Posted by: Lee A. Arnold at Aug 7, 2007 12:59:51 AM
The late Aaron Wildavsky argued with surprising persuasiveness that the categories of externality and public goods were a) not well-defined technically within economics, b) essentially political/cultural claims about what deserves to get regulated, and c) rhetorical tactical errors committed by the economics profession, because they enable anti-market ideologues to justify whatever interventions they favor on other grounds. I'm surprised his work on this isn't better known, if only as a provocative end-point on the spectrum. It comes from a complete theory of cultural and ideological conflict developed with renowned anthropologist Mary Douglas.
Posted by: srp at Aug 7, 2007 4:32:00 AM
There is an important difference between economists and (hard) scientists. The "best economists"
are those who can explain everything using simple theories and logic. The best scientists are usually those
who found a problem, which they failed to completely resolve and opened an extensive field for further
study. In that sense, economists are priests who have answer to any question in the world. And scientists are losers with so many unresolved problems.
Logically, the "best economists" are top priests with the "better-than-first-best economist" touching the steps of the Lord (of economic religion).
A tricky thing about such a religion explaining everything is that it actually explains nothing.
Posted by: KIO at Aug 7, 2007 5:52:42 AM
Rodrik strikes me as vastly underestimating how easy it is to implement a second-best solution. I'm not simply talking about politically feasible, but that it is possible to characterize the system in question well-enough to come up with policy interventions that would reliably be an improvement over non-intervention. When disputes arise between first and second besters, it is in cases where the system being analyzed is poorly characterized. As Rodrik admits, when a market failure is clearly demonstrated first-besters will support interventions. This is probably why there is more disagreement between the groups in policy than in research, since "the evidence isn't clear" is an acceptable position on an academic question, but policy debates require either coming out for or against a policy. So it becomes a question of how willing the economist is to mess around with interventions in the absence of information. First besters tend to stay away from interventions since if the relevant standard assumptions are holding, they're unnecessary and will always make things worse, and if the assumptions aren't holding, the intervention is still a shot in the dark since you need to have an operable model (and one which is obigately more complex than the simple standard assumptions) in order to determine what intervention to take. The second-besters seem to be comfortable with taking the shot in the dark based on the fact that the standard assumptions are unlikely to hold so there's probably a marginal improvement out there somewhere. Thus the first besters will recommend a solution that is 1st to nth best, while the second-besters will recommend a solution that is 2nd to infinitify-th best. Neither approach can be proved to be superior to the other and each of them will generate the best outcome in some situations, but the second bester approach seems like a reckless way to deal with incomplete information, since the quality of its outcome is much more contingent on the completeness of the model.
Posted by: MattXIV at Aug 7, 2007 3:26:05 PM
How would you relate what you have to say to Demsetz' comparative institutions concept?
Posted by: Scott Wood at Aug 7, 2007 11:55:11 PM
In China, the first-bests are the Daoists; and the second-bests are the Confucians. Since the 11th century, I think, they live in peace in the same society, and often times, in the same person.
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