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Tyler on UFOs
Discover Your Inner Economist has lots of great insights. But this one Tyler gets all wrong.
Small changes in incentives can make a big difference in our beliefs. For instance, UFO sightings are down dramatically in the last decade...I think [one factor is] cell phones and cell phone cameras.
"The spaceship was in a no-call dead zone. And you didn't snap a picture?"
...The story is suddenly a little harder to swallow. Most of all, it is harder to fool oneself, not just one's spouse and friends.
I mean really. Why jump to conclusions? OBVIOUSLY the aliens know we have cell phone cameras now.
Posted by Alex Tabarrok on July 9, 2007 at 07:20 AM in Science | Permalink
Comments
For those of us who don't have the book, can you give us the reference for less UFO citings?
Posted by: Matthew at Jul 9, 2007 7:26:59 AM
LOL! ;-)
Posted by: Chris Meisenzahl at Jul 9, 2007 7:45:00 AM
Know we have them? Where do you think we got them from?
Posted by: Ted Craig at Jul 9, 2007 8:38:52 AM
Just a thought, and I may be way out of line here. You won't hear this from me again. I enjoy your blog, and am truly grateful that you take the time to write it. It fills a void that I didn't know even existed in my personal data net. But...it would be even better without what I can only call shilling. We get that you write books. We applaud it in fact, along with your well earned remuneration for it. But we also get that your site it laced top to bottom with affiliate ads. Again, bravo, and good on ya'. But please, try to keep the filthy lucre out of the 'editorial' content. It detracts. Fwiw, Mankiw suffers from the same thing on his blog. I hope it's not a characteristic of the neighborhood. Thanks!
Posted by: mc at Jul 9, 2007 8:55:23 AM
mc --- lighten up francis...
Posted by: matt at Jul 9, 2007 10:51:43 AM
MC - come on, it's fine. It's their blog, what's the harm in self-promotion?
Posted by: nugget at Jul 9, 2007 11:02:01 AM
Hmm, you and Megan both have posts this morning concerning our utter
futility in dealing with creatures from other worlds. Anyone know of
a prediction market regarding alien invasions?
Posted by: RonnieB at Jul 9, 2007 11:22:04 AM
Wait, you have a problem with "lucre" on a site with the title of "Marginal Revolution"? I think the commercialization and the use of all the different ad formats is a huge plus to the site, as it means that they take this blogging experiment seriously and that it gives them insight into how websites can and do make money. It keeps them plugged into one of the feedback loops of blogging.
Posted by: Johnny Debacle at Jul 9, 2007 11:24:23 AM
This is easily explained by the fact that the aliens recently developed cloaking devices.
Posted by: Joshua Holmes at Jul 9, 2007 12:31:06 PM
I agree, what's the fun in getting the dumb natives in a tizzy if they will be believed? Might as well buzz Mars.
Posted by: anonymous at Jul 9, 2007 12:53:11 PM
I agree with Johnny Debacle. The benefits to blogging for Tyler and Alex are higher with ad revenues, and is higher when they can plug any books they have. Thus the marginal extra revenues shift the should-I-post curve to the benefit of the readers. There are quality benefits at the margin as well as quantity. Some of my favorite bloggers don't post nearly as much as they used to, or have even quasi-permanently stopped blogging. Anecdotally they all seem(ed) to have no ads.
Posts like this one from Alex also lower discovery costs for potential readers of the book. Who knew it had stuff on UFO's?
Posted by: happyjuggler0 at Jul 9, 2007 2:09:51 PM
The post on UFOs was interesting and worth reading. If Alex had not been plugging Tyler's book, would he have posted something more interesting instead? Probably not. He probably was reading Tyler's book and wanted to share something interesting. Had he not posted on Tyler, he likely would not have posted on anything at all at that moment. So, it seems that Alex's post benefitted us, and that it didn't have a high opportunity cost (in that it doesn't seem to be the case that if Alex weren't concerned to plug Tyler's book, we would have gotten a better post from him at that moment.) So, I don't see how the post reduces the quality of the site, unless one thinks that self-promotion by its very nature reduces the quality of the site.
Posted by: J. at Jul 9, 2007 2:39:00 PM
Proper UFOs, of course, are known to disable all electronics and machinery within range of their super-jamming device. ;)
Posted by: Robert at Jul 9, 2007 3:12:19 PM
Why did UFO's always land in cornfields, away from the city? What's with their 'probe' fetish?
Klaatu barada nikto!
Posted by: eric at Jul 9, 2007 4:11:29 PM
MC: Do you work for free? Why do you expect others to?
Posted by: Jacqueline at Jul 9, 2007 4:23:20 PM
For those of us who don't have the book, can you give us the reference for less UFO citings?
Please, please please! it should be "fewer UFO sightings"
Remember there are children reading.
Posted by: Jeremy at Jul 9, 2007 4:29:11 PM
UFOs always land in cornfields because they run on ethanol.
-dk
Posted by: Dick King at Jul 9, 2007 4:40:47 PM
I should have thought the explanation was obvious, people are too busy talking on their cellphones to notice anything anymore.
Posted by: Lord at Jul 9, 2007 6:00:23 PM
From what source did you get the UFO sighting statistics?
Posted by: Mike H. at Jul 9, 2007 6:08:42 PM
If I was a UFO pilot (I'll let you guess whether I am) and needed to land I'd much rather it be in a nice flat cornfield away from the city ruckus.
Suburban lots are so small there's really not room to land any but the smallest economy class vessels anyhow.
Posted by: Shane Milburn at Jul 9, 2007 11:37:29 PM
On the subject of Tyler's books, the conversation in the comment got me to browse the sidebar again. At some point I really should order all of the books by Cowen and Tabarrok that I haven't yet ordered. mc's complaint probably helps Tyler and Alex more than it hurts them. Any publicity is good publicity. The marginal cost for me would be small as most of them would count as "research", but for my job I'd probably get more utility from reading Cowen's "Risk and Business Cycles" along with Garrison's "Time and Money" a few more times.
(Even more off topic: Looking around for other things Tyler has done on macroeconomics, I am now kicking myself for not requesting "Old 615 macroeconomics exam questions with answers" in his earlier "request posts in comments" post.)
But the reason for my comment is that the browsing of Tyler's books brought up an interesting statistic which probably occured due to low sample size:
50% buy Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Book 7) by J. K. Rowling $17.99
50% buy the item featured on this page:What Price Fame? by Tyler Cowen $17.95
That said, I'd be wary of the claim that UFO sightings have decreased. My first impression is that the internet has given UFO viewers different outlets/forums to discuss their sightings, reducing the percentage that make it into "official" sightings.
Posted by: agent00yak at Jul 10, 2007 5:05:41 AM
Well, I for one have sympathy for MC's comment - I did not find it a complaint. There's a fine line, and it's not obvious at all. It's probably a very personal matter.
It's irrating to see an obvious product placement in a film or movie. To me, it detracts from it, cheapens it. This, clearly, is not the same Species, but perhaps the same Family.
It's certainly meant to be a respectful constructive criticism, as MC's clearly was.
NOW, I'll lighten up ...
Posted by: glenn at Jul 10, 2007 10:41:43 AM
I agree with Jeremy. Fewer.
Posted by: Colin Fraizer at Jul 10, 2007 11:45:24 AM
"If I was a UFO pilot (I'll let you guess whether I am) and needed to land I'd much rather it be in a nice flat cornfield away from the city ruckus."
How about an airport in a major city?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_O'Hare_International_Airport_UFO_Sighting_Nov_7th,2006
Posted by: Anon at Jul 10, 2007 12:00:23 PM
They don't need any more ships.
They are already here.
Posted by: Mr. Econotarian at Jul 10, 2007 12:47:13 PM
