« Supply and demand | Main | Which are the underrated classics of Western literature? »
The destruction of Tysons Corner?
It's not quite Hurricane Katrina on the way, but I can't wrap my mind around how Tysons Corner will keep going. The plan is to take one of America's most successful "edge cities" and centrally plan it into a walkable neighborhood, yet that is to happen while five major roads -- three of them multi-lane highways -- will continue to carve up the whole area.
Have I mentioned they will build elevated rail service to Dulles Airport? This sounds quaint and European but there is already a dedicated, virtually traffic-free road to that airport, in addition to three or four totally usable back routes. The new rail line will sit atop Route 7 (the major artery), necessitating its widening and the destruction of the side and access roads which make transversing the area a workable proposition.
Quotations like this scare me:
VDOT has agreed to narrow the eight future lanes of Route 7 to 11 feet from the standard 12, to allow for two additional pedestrian crossings beneath the aerial line and to build eight-foot sidewalks.
"We've always emphasized that we need wider sidewalks, we need more pedestrian crosswalks, we need to slow traffic down," Stevens said [emphasis added].
I have heard construction will take six to eight years, which I assume means eight to twelve years.
Aesthetically you may or may not like what Tysons Corner has become, but at this point there is no turning back. I simply do not see how an already traffic-heavy Tysons Corner will survive this onslaught. The theory is that enough people will live in nearby condos (didn't the real estate bubble just burst?) that in the proverbial long run traffic will fall. Betting markets, anyone? When people rely on an area as one part of their programme for auto-based, carry-around-big-packages, lug the kids, multiple stops, mass transit doesn't have much of a chance.
I've already made my plans ("Find new Persian restaurant with Zereskh Polo") for avoiding the area altogether, quite possibly for the rest of my adult life. Does that mean I have to buy my iPhone soon?
This issue has received plenty of local publicity, but I wonder how many people know that the planners soon will be destroying an American triumph? Even around here I think most people do not yet believe this is actually going to happen.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 3, 2007 at 06:50 AM in Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
The road narrowing won't happen for a while; and the point of the Metro is to make Dulles more accessible for everyone in the area, not just those living within a 5 minute drive of Tyson's (which doesn't exist if you've ever been to Tyson's, route 7 is nuts and it takes 15 minutes to go anywhere).
You have to be write though about people not metro'ing to go shop. Kind of tough to carry your Prada purchases home via the metro.
Posted by: Chris at Jul 3, 2007 7:54:47 AM
Six to eight years for a government construction plan translates to twelve to sixteen in the real world.
Posted by: Angus Hendrick at Jul 3, 2007 8:20:18 AM
Doesn't traffic in the northern VA area move at about 15 MPH during most of the day? Perhaps if northern VA had given more thought to planning its city rather than just laying down pavement wherever a dirt path was they wouldn't have so much congestion (I mean how would you get something like 7 corners with any actual planning). Or if they actually built some roads - seriously, how many 6-lane roads are there through Fairfax City (I always get confused on the city or county part)? I believe it is 0, unless you count I-66. That is truly amazing for the amount of people there - Tallahassee has a 6 lane road running through it (and I believe they are widening I-10 now), and there have to be 4x as many people in Fairfax as there are in Tallahassee, not to mention all the people who travel through Fairfax to get to DC (no one travels through Tallahassee to get anywhere for work unless they are driving a truck from Miami to LA).
Of course, it will all be moot once the Star Trek molecular transporter becomes a reality ... I lay better odd on the molecular transporter becoming a reality than traffic improving with the current plan.
Posted by: AZ at Jul 3, 2007 8:31:19 AM
What does it matter. Virginia's new fines for speeding and other traffic violations is going to bring the whole area to a standstill.
Posted by: Xmas at Jul 3, 2007 8:34:01 AM
Thank you. I've been saying all along that the path to urbanization of Tysons Corner is to increase congestion ('density') and decrease automobile traffic. I also believe that successful urbanization at Tysons would be a great thing-- but it can't be denied that the path to a real, no-kidding city is going to be hard.
Posted by: MattF at Jul 3, 2007 8:42:07 AM
At least we know the part about slowing traffic down will work. VDOT's great at that.
Posted by: Josh at Jul 3, 2007 8:54:21 AM
Over the past 30 years, the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor has added thousands of dwelling units and millions of square feet of office space while causing only a very nominal increase in traffic congestion. They did this by making the place pedestrian-friendly and Metro-accessible. What's wrong with that?
“Central planning” is not the issue. Just what do you think created your “dedicated, virtually traffic-free road to that airport, in addition to three or four totally usable back routes” in the first place? Not to mention the “five major roads—three of them multi-lane highways.” Compared to these, it takes far less “planning” to make an area pedestrian-friendly.
Posted by: Jack at Jul 3, 2007 10:02:28 AM
Jack, note that Ballston never had the same problem with highways or pre-existing levels of commerce and office buildings comparable to Tysons...
Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Jul 3, 2007 10:16:49 AM
an American triumph? are you kidding?
http://www.beyonddc.com/images/photos/va/tysons/leesburgpk09.jpg
it's an ugly shithole filled with parking lots and nasty traffic
but more roads always get rid of traffic, right tyler?
Posted by: what at Jul 3, 2007 11:23:35 AM
The metro as a congestion solution is a joke. People in this area like to drive. Period. There are too many soccer moms and too much ample parking around businesses. Also, the impact on the commute to DC from Herndon/Reston will be negligible. The bus lines to WFC Metro are extremely efficient, and my guess is that the Restonites that don't want to use public transit now are not suddenly going to change their minds. My three biggest traffic complaints for this area (and there are many) are that this metro line should have been built 20 years ago, I66 should be wide all the way into the city(no HOV), and there should be an outer beltway(at least on the east side of the city).
The metro will, however, be great for car-less(young) people who live in DC that can't afford $35 taxi rides to IAD for an international flight or a good deal on United.
Posted by: Charlie at Jul 3, 2007 11:27:44 AM
Two things: (1) I'm not sure I'd regard Tyson's as "an American triumph." (2) It wasn't the planners who wanted the Dulles Metro line to go through Tyson's; it was the Tyson's (and Reston) business interests: they saw what happened to Clarendon and Ballston with the Metro line and wanted to make sure they got the benefit of it (or at least denied the benefit of it to any rivals situated where the line went if it didn't go through Tyson's). See your previous item about rent seeking. Once it was decided the line would go through Tyson's, it was natural to try to make Tyson's adapt to it.
There really is a need for rail access to Dulles. Once outside the Beltway, car access is easy (though then one has to find parking at the airport). But getting to and from the Access Road from inside the Beltway is not so easy. The merge of 267 and 66 is appalling.
In restrospect, I think it was a mistake to tie the Dulles rail access issue to Metrorail, which naturally led to the notion of connecting through Falls Church and using the 267 median, which meant that it would go near Tyson's, so Tyson's could hijack it (at one point, the Dulles access line seemed so hijacked by Tyson's that it might not even get to Dulles, which is why the Airport Authority got into the act).
I would have much preferred extending the VRE Manassas line to Gainesville along the NS B-Line (which VRE has on their long term wish list) and then building a grade level line from Gainesville to the airport (about 13 nearly level miles). Even with the land acquisition costs, it would have been cheaper. This is underused infrastructure: NS runs about 8 freight trains a day along the B-Line.
But the decisions have been made. Yes. I, too, will keep away from the Tyson's area for the foreseeable future. But this will not be hard. I have successfully kept away from it for several years now.
Posted by: jim at Jul 3, 2007 11:41:40 AM
I can drive from my apt in pentagon city to the Tyson's Corner mall in less than 20 minutes. Yes route 7 runs slow, but drive on other roads people. Err, actually please don't, leave them open for me. Not that I go there often.
And to reiterate what others have said, many many people go to Tyson's to buy lots of stuff. They aren't going to haul lots of (possibly big) packages home on the metro.
Posted by: greenspan at Jul 3, 2007 11:59:46 AM
I was just down the road from Tyson's Corner last week when I was looking for an apartment (I eventually found a place in Arlington). I spent some time driving through, and sitting at the galleria. I thought the place was just fine as it was.
Posted by: Tofumar at Jul 3, 2007 12:09:53 PM
Can you provide a summary of the benefit-cost analysis (if there is one) that justifies running the Metro beyond Tysons at all, let alone all the way to Dulles? Bus Rapid Transit along either the access road or the toll road made economic sense but I don't recall economics every becoming part of the rail decision. Even people here who explain to me why Medicare is A-OK and oil prices are high because the oil companies are monopolies cannot explain how a subway line to Dulles would ever has more than a handful of people riding it to and from the airport every day.
Posted by: Harry at Jul 3, 2007 12:15:12 PM
I fail to see the impending disaster. A new metro line that will bring in 40,000-50,000 commuters a day will be a boon to businesses in Tysons Corner. I do not think it will reduce traffic significantly, as people seem to think, but it will bring in more workers/visitors from DC who currently would not drive.
As for eliminating access roads, they seem to make traffic worse, at least at some points. I can't say how many times I've been unable to cross Route 7 at Westpark Drive despite having a green light because cars were crossing on the access road, preventing traffic on the main road from going through.
"VDOT has agreed to narrow the eight future lanes of Route 7 to 11 feet from the standard 12, to allow for two additional pedestrian crossings beneath the aerial line and to build eight-foot sidewalks."
So traffic will slow to 40 mph from 45--hardly a catastrophe. Especially since speed limits are entirely theoretical in an area that's stop-and-go for much of the day anyway.
Posted by: Thelonious_Nick at Jul 3, 2007 12:37:06 PM
The bus lines to WFC Metro are extremely efficient
What?! C'mon now -- they don't run very late, and they charge about three times as much as the bus from Greenbelt to BWI (with comparable waiting times). Metro service really will be a big improvement.
Posted by: tom at Jul 3, 2007 12:42:20 PM
Are you talking about Zereshk Polo with steamed chicken or with joojeh kabab?
Posted by: Robert Bell at Jul 3, 2007 12:50:01 PM
Ohmygosh...so many things to say about this post that I will have to say it on my own blog.
Posted by: David Sucher at Jul 3, 2007 12:54:14 PM
If you aren't able to pick your time to travel around Tyson's Corner, it doesn't look like any sort of success. People who can avoid periods of congestion aren't seeing the disaster that the planners are trying to solve. I won't say that they've hit upon the best or even a good option, I don't know anything about urban or traffic planning, but things certainly do not work well now.
Posted by: false_cause at Jul 3, 2007 1:35:46 PM
It's the lights! Get rid of the traffic lights. The absolute worst thing about the elevated rails is that it will interfere with clover-leafing the area between 7/123/66/267/495. A few roads that bypass the area (such as another path over/under the beltway that doesn't actually have an exit) would help as well.
The traffic free road to Dulles doesn't help travelers stuck with the $50 ride in towards DC via taxi, and its traffic free nature ends in Tyson's with the madness of the two lane I-66. I think rail is an okay approach, but the plan for the four stops doesn't really make sense with the elevated rail.
The bus lines are ridiculous and you spend much of the trip in traffic to/from the Herndon/Monroe park to/from WFC. Waiting in a 100+ person line outside in the winter or summer 20-30 minutes for a crammed bus really turned me on to the superiority of rail, or any other system that doesn't run in the regular traffic lanes for any part of its trip.
Posted by: matt m at Jul 3, 2007 2:54:49 PM
I graduated from George C Marshall High School in 1966. GCM is just down Route 7(?) from Tysons Corner.
My senior year we used to sneak out of school and go up to Tyson's Corner. At that time the only thing there was a 7-11.
There used to be woods behind the school. Some kids would bring 22's to school and go shoot squirrels.
They were just bringing the Interstate through and we would go motorcycle riding on the construction sites.
I was last in TC about 10 years ago and found it hard to believe.
John Henry
Posted by: John Henry at Jul 3, 2007 3:09:51 PM
It'll be interesting to see what other metro areas benefit from NoVa's inaction on roads. You'd think Richmond would eventually be able to capitalize on the gridlock, but it continuously fails to.
One response has clearly just been more and more expansion into Loudon and PW County.
Farther afield I think North Carolina has benefited a great deal. The Triangle (RTP) and Charlotte are areas where educated NoVa-ites can move and feel comfortable (esp. RTP) and find good work. The other Virginia metros (Richmond, Roanoke, Hampton Roads) have had less success attracting this educated crowd looking for a less traffic-filled life.
NoVa relies on the immobility of the govt/mil workforce for a lot of its comp. advantage. The rest of Virginia, I think, keeps hoping that if it can just starve NoVa of roads the jobs/people will eventually come south.
And the NoVa-ites themselves seem anti-road, hoping people will stop moving there if they just make the gridlock ever more unbearable.
Posted by: jim at Jul 3, 2007 3:16:25 PM
The Orange line is already a nightmare with the bottleneck underneath the Potomac. Now they're going to stuff the Orange line, the Blue line, plus the Tysons extension all through that one tunnel into DC?
Posted by: bjk at Jul 3, 2007 3:36:52 PM
I'm just gonna sit here and wait until the silver line comes to leesburg.
Posted by: anangbhai at Jul 3, 2007 7:49:03 PM
I’m no big believer that metro will solve Tyson’s traffic problems, but if you’re going to build a metro line and reshape the city, why not the purple line connecting Tyson’s to the suburbs of MD? Or why not another Potomac highway crossing from Fairfax County to Montgomery County, MD diverting traffic well out of the way of the Tyson’s area? Currently, the only way to get between these two points is to drive across the American Legion bridge and through the Tyson’s area no matter where you are going to or from in Fairfax. How many times has Tyson’s been completely gridlocked on I-495, Rt 7, the Dulles Toll rd, etc. because of a back up on the American Legion Bridge? Montgomery County and Fairfax County are the big business and residential growth areas of the region and have only one connection between them. And going through the city is NOT a good alternative. I know, I know, there are a hundred reasons why another crossing, metro or road, will not be built between the two areas, but still, the Dulles metro will kill either option from ever being funded or even considered.
And what is the rationale for expanding metro anyway? The current system may serve the city well, but it continuously has budget short falls and is in need of major repairs as it ages. A new line only exacerbates the problem of metro funding and maintenance.
Posted by: RLW at Jul 3, 2007 10:42:02 PM
