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Germany fact of the day
Statisticians have been scratching their heads lately over figures that suggest Germans, among the most barren of western Europeans, are rediscovering the joys of procreation. In the first quarter of 2007, nearly 15 per cent more babies were born in Düsseldorf than in the same period last year.
Here is more.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on July 14, 2007 at 01:10 PM in Data Source | Permalink
Comments
Statisticians are scratching their heads? I guess someone forgot to tell tham that incentives matter.
Then there is Elterngeld, a new parental allowance. Introduced nationwide in January and modelled on Scandinavian policies, the benefit entitles every new parent to a state allowance worth 67 per cent of their salary if they stop working for a year after having a child.
There was and is no way to be sure how much of an effect such a policy would have, but it seems clear that it will definitely have an impact on the margin. Just how big is that margin?
Posted by: happyjuggler0 at Jul 14, 2007 1:27:58 PM
World Cup.
Posted by: tom s. at Jul 14, 2007 1:29:41 PM
Could be a fluke. Or another Muslim village moved to Dusseldorf and
started breeding.
Posted by: mik at Jul 14, 2007 1:54:29 PM
tom s. nailed it.
Posted by: Joshua Holmes at Jul 14, 2007 2:10:13 PM
I should add to happyjugglers comment that Elterngeld is capped at 1800 Euros/month.
I'm not sure the rise is as strong in Germany overall as it is in Düsseldorf, but I believe the numbers are definitely up. A third explanation, in addition to the two above: Unemployment is down (as mentioned by the article). I think those three factors are pretty much everything you need.
Posted by: LemmusLemmus at Jul 14, 2007 3:36:13 PM
It's the Ratzinger Effect. They love the guy, and they have been listening to his comments about the defence of European culture and family.
It might also reflect a lack of long-term faith in the social welfare net. But that is again related to my first point.
Posted by: john at Jul 14, 2007 5:13:17 PM
A ha! A confluence of factors. Elterngeld, the World Cup, maybe some more baby happy Muslims, lower unemployment, and a lack of faith in the social welfare net.
My unoriginal thesis is that one of the main factors that have driven down birth rates in industrial countries, in addition to education and more women in the workforce, and in addition to not needing children to help on the farm and to care for you when you are old and infirm, is nationalized care of the elderly.
Therefore if they now lack faith in their coercive Ponzi scheme, and indeed they should lack faith in it. If people now feel they may need family as a safety net again they may choose to have kids, or more kids, just to be on the safe side.
Posted by: happyjuggler0 at Jul 14, 2007 5:40:47 PM
Lack of faith in the pensions system, although widespread, doesn't do the job - I don't think it has risen dramatically between last year and this one.
Even so, an interesting concept. People lacking faith in the pensions system due to too few children, thus having children... Solution to the free-rider problem... Equilibria... Frequency dependent selection...
If you'll excuse me now, I have an article for Sociological Theory to write.
Posted by: LemmusLemmus at Jul 14, 2007 7:14:50 PM
It could just be a cyclical thing.
Posted by: Peter at Jul 15, 2007 1:12:34 PM
Someone giving out medals again?
Posted by: RRE at Jul 15, 2007 3:42:08 PM
The end of the cold war and it's aftermath?
Posted by: Lord at Jul 15, 2007 5:10:55 PM
@RRE: Hehe, very, very PC but kind of funny.
Posted by: JSK at Jul 15, 2007 5:15:36 PM
Read 'PI' where it says 'PC'
Posted by: JSK at Jul 15, 2007 5:16:26 PM
"the benefit entitles every new parent to a state allowance worth 67 per cent of their salary"
So it subsidizes employees to have children, at the expense of the self employed?
Class warefare!
Posted by: doctorpat at Jul 15, 2007 11:05:27 PM
Talking to Germans, they all can tell that something is shifting. I'm quite sure this is not a brief cyclical thing.
Posted by: Paul N at Jul 15, 2007 11:38:58 PM
David Hasselhoff is on a German reproductive rampage.
Posted by: Jake at Jul 16, 2007 9:53:50 AM
@doctorpat: Don't worry, the self-employed get the subsidy, too.
Posted by: blablablabla at Jul 16, 2007 10:11:36 AM
If people now feel they may need family as a safety net again they may choose to have kids, or more kids, just to be on the safe side.
Isn't that a foolish choice? Given the money it takes to raise children, isn't it better to invest that money into a health savings account and then withdraw from it when health fails instead of relying on children who are under no obligation to care for their parents when they age.
Posted by: David Alexander at Jul 16, 2007 7:09:14 PM
Actually people in Germany are effectively required to care for their parents in old age, as any social assistance claimed is required to be repaid by family members.
There has been a recent upturn in birth rates in quite a number of countries, including France, the UK, Sweden and Australia.
I think it is probably best to wait a while and see whether the trend continues.
Posted by: Disinterested Observer at Jul 17, 2007 12:28:26 PM
Posted by: 鑽石 at Apr 2, 2008 9:13:05 PM
