Marginal Revolution: Larry Kotlikoff's plan to stabilize Iraq

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Larry Kotlikoff's plan to stabilize Iraq

Here goes:

The Iraqi government should institute a draft of all Iraqi men between the ages of 18 and 35. This is the demographic most responsible for the violence. The removal of these 3 million men from the cities and countryside to army barracks would likely bring an immediate end to Iraq's horrific nightmare. Any men older than 35 suspected of involvement in terrorist or insurgent acts would also be enlisted...The role of the enlarged Iraqi army would not involve bearing arms or training in the use of arms. Rather the role would be to reconstruct the country.

Were the United States to pay 3 million Iraqi soldiers $10,000 yearly, the bill would be $30 billion. This is a small amount relative to the savings it would accrue from leaving the country. It would also make service in the Iraqi army highly desirable...

It is called a draft, but I think of it as an allowance to go play in the sand, a'la Coase. Here is more.

Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 11, 2007 at 05:08 PM in Political Science | Permalink

Comments

I have to question whether violent insurgents would actually lay down their weapons to do be on the USA's payroll.

Posted by: Aaron Fix at Apr 11, 2007 5:24:21 PM

All those draftees couldn't reconstruct anything if they were based out away from the cities. And if they were back in the cities with lots of money in their pockets? Why wouldn't they sign up and continue to engage in terror on the side (or at least support it with their new wealth)?

Posted by: Slocum at Apr 11, 2007 5:34:07 PM

Starship troopers stuff. While we're at it let's rearrange the whole country top down, it'll be fun. We'll have our Iman class, our warrior class, our farming class etc. I've played a lot of civilization & age of empires, and am currently enjoying Medieval Total War II. Their societies are so much easier & clearer than muddy old reality, it could work. In age of empires you can build wonders, maybe we could set a heap'a these guys to work on that statue of Bush Perley so desired?

Posted by: adrian at Apr 11, 2007 5:42:05 PM

Terrific! Now instead of shooting each other because of their ethnicity, the Iraqi army and the US will have a new, legal rationale: desertion! (Or failure to report for duty.)

Posted by: RSaunders at Apr 11, 2007 5:48:53 PM

This is basically the Civilian Conservation Corps, right?

If it works in Iraq, we'd have a good plan for rebuilding the entire world.

Posted by: Ricketson at Apr 11, 2007 6:48:42 PM

Yeah, I'm sure a "removal" would be smooth and appreciated by Iraqis.

Posted by: Sean at Apr 11, 2007 8:41:42 PM

Let's take the demographic most responsible for the violence, and then, give them military training?

Posted by: Kaj Sotala at Apr 11, 2007 10:34:03 PM

Kaj, read the post before you comment.

"The role of the enlarged Iraqi army would not involve bearing arms or training in the use of arms."

Posted by: vm at Apr 11, 2007 10:50:39 PM

I hate to be the libertarian bugaboo, but oughtn't we show some concern for the 99% of the Iraqi population who are not blowing things up, and who therefore still ought to retain their natural right to be free from a draft?

Posted by: cure at Apr 11, 2007 11:19:43 PM

Why not remove all African Americans age 18-25 from our cities? That's the demographic most responsible for our violence, too.

Exactly what "reconstruction" would occur in the middle of nothing is unclear.

And lastly, I still don't understand what stops the small percentage bent on destruction from merely sabotaging the reconstruction, just as the corrupt members of the Iragi military do now.

Posted by: anonymous at Apr 11, 2007 11:30:43 PM

...Why not consider it? Seriously, what's worked so far? Sure, there's some idealism here, but why not consider it? Allow young Iraqis to feel like they're a part of something, pay them well, and give 'em something to defend Iraq from its enemies, foreign and domestic.

"Our violence" is nothing like the mess that our government and its decisions have brought to Iraq. Come on now. Iraq is a disaster! Whether we're for or against this war, WE (Americans, the U.S.A.) are responsible for the subsequent chaos. We intentionally brought it about. And, if our country's reputation is already shitty, what'll it be like if we just leave now or continue covering with bandages? I'm sorry, but to imply that a draft is ridiculous on its face because we have the luxury of living in a place where it's not needed is silly.

Kent

Posted by: Kent at Apr 12, 2007 12:31:29 AM

This is more or less what Saddam did. He had as many as 1.7 million in the military, but most were badly armed and trained so they really couldn't stand up against the elite units. It might have worked in 2003, if we had paid their army instead of disbanding it, but it is probably too late now.

Posted by: joan at Apr 12, 2007 1:05:59 AM

yeah give them guns!

Posted by: haha at Apr 12, 2007 1:16:30 AM

Interesting idea. I saw a link (perhaps on the Drudgereport) about the idea of "The New Deal" for Iraq... sort of the same idea, but instead of conscription in the army, it was like the New Deal of the 1930's in America...

Posted by: Remi at Apr 12, 2007 2:48:49 AM

People are getting more creative every day. Paid concentration camps. That's new!

Posted by: dsVasques at Apr 12, 2007 9:07:07 AM

Dogbert (a character from the comic strip "Dilbert") beat you too it. From a mid-nineties strip:

Dogbert (typing on his laptop, aiming to write a nonfiction bestseller): "Evidence shows that the majority of violent crimes are committed by unmarried males. Therefore, they should all be locked up to prevent further atrocities. And I should be celebrated as a genius for suggesting something so controversial. The End."

Posted by: Stefan Johansson at Apr 12, 2007 9:12:21 AM

Just another economist promising a "free lunch" not that different from all
the free lunch policies that got us into the mess we now see.

Posted by: spencer at Apr 12, 2007 9:51:31 AM

We must enslave them to free them, see.

- Josh

Posted by: Wild Pegasus at Apr 12, 2007 10:05:40 AM

Fundamentally, not a bad idea, but I would use this New Model Army not to rebuild the country but to attack their ancient enemy, Iran. Equip them lavishly, pay them well (which should take care of the desertion problem - no service, no pay) and then point them in the direction of Tehran. Offer a bounty for the head of every Iranian they take - this would be a Vernichtungskrieg, a war of total annihilation. No attention would be paid to human rights or civilian casualties. The US could help out by carpet bombing Iranian cities and key installations. This would unite the various Iraqi factions and boost the popularity of the government. And from what I've seen of Iraqis, they would probably enjoy being paid to kill Iranians.

Posted by: Ned at Apr 12, 2007 11:09:56 AM

I am not really seeing how this is different from mass slavery. Men forced to work by gunpoint for menial wages.

It has potential to work, depending on how well the men are enslaved. If we don't care about liberty, as this plan seems to insist, then we might as go all the way and put them in chaingangs to build roads of pick fruit

Posted by: Carl Marks at Apr 12, 2007 11:11:48 AM

vm, whoops. My bad, read it lazily. In that case it might very well work, though then I'll question if "drafting them to the army" is the correct term to use...

Posted by: Kaj Sotala at Apr 12, 2007 11:16:55 AM

Why not rebuild Babylon to it's former glory? It seems like the nation lacks a cohesive symbol. It would get people out of the populated cities, provide a chance to improve the human capital and real capital of Iraq, shift international focus somewhere other than Bahgdad, and would symbolize a further overcoming of Saddam (who's goal was to rebuild Babylon in his honor.

Posted by: nelsonal at Apr 12, 2007 12:03:58 PM

nelsonal - give the tower another shot eh? Has the makings of a South Park episode.

Posted by: adrian at Apr 12, 2007 3:21:48 PM

Brilliant. How do we compel them to obey the draft?

By force?

Is force working so well for us over there?

Posted by: Anderson at Apr 12, 2007 9:50:46 PM

While this is an interesting idea, it does not seem practical. Drafting insurgents would give them a much greater opportunity to fundamentally undermine stability in Iraq through internal sabotage with or without the authorized use of firearms.

Posted by: Paul R. Dorasil at Apr 13, 2007 12:54:18 AM

I'm sorry, but there is no possible way that the terrorists are going to stop what they are doing. If you learn something from your family, whether it be right or wrong, you are going to grow up the same way, and more than likely, raise your kids in the same manner. They will not quit doing this for a few thousand dollars a year from the USA.

Posted by: Derek at Apr 16, 2007 6:20:10 PM

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