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Reviewing Landsburg's Errors

In the Armchair Economist, Steven Landsburg argues that the people who read his book are likely to find that it wasn't as good as they expected.  The logic is impeccable - people who over-estimate the value of the Armchair Economist are more likely to buy it and thus discover their over-estimation (sadly, under-estimators never learn of their mistake).  Nevertheless, despite the logic, I and many others discovered that Landsburg was wrong.  The Armchair Economist and every Landsburg book exceed expectations. 

Landsburg is back with More S-ex is Safer S-ex, and another error.  This time Landsburg suggests that writing his book was socially destructive.  Again, the logic is impeccable - a good book creates a lot less value than its price because to a large extent it displaces the second best book which was almost as good.  Authors however are paid based on price and not on social value and thus write too many books.  And yet, I must again disagree for Landsburg's new book is a treasure.  There is something to learn on almost every page.

Here's one idea I learned.  In the debate over the economics of global warming the correct discount rate to apply to future generations is a key variable with those arguing that we should do something now, implicitly (and explicitly) arguing for a low discount rate.  But if we count future generations highly we ought also to be in favor of reforming social security.  Investing social security in the stock market "royally screws" current retirees but increases the savings rate which will be benefit future generations.  Thus, a low discount rate ought to weigh in favor of doing something about global warming and investing social security funds in the stock market.  Not many people come out consistent on these grounds (I think Brad DeLong is one of the few.)  I know, I don't but Landsburg has got me thinking.

Posted by Alex Tabarrok on April 18, 2007 at 07:12 AM in Books, Economics | Permalink

Comments

It's all about discount rates. And as we consider those, we fall into a "spirit is willing but flesh is week" story line:

Do Consumers Want Fuel-Efficient Cars?

What they buy doesn't always back up what they say. And for the customer, sometimes power still trumps environmental responsibility

business week story

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 9:14:57 AM

Unfortunately, I have come to the conclusion that the pure time preference discount must be very low.
The best metric would be long-term bonds that abstract away from risk, taxes (people consider, or should
consider, the after-tax return), and inflation. High-grade municipal bond funds remove the first two, and
their yield, based on a brief perusal of Vanguard's funds, is about 3.8% when I last check. Subtract
a CPI of about 3.1%, and you get 0.7% real discount rate. Ouch.

If society is as consumption-heavy as people claim it is, why can't we poor usurers get more for loaning
our money? :-(

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 10:03:36 AM

"why can't we poor usurers get more for loaning our money? :-("

This is where I have a hole in my economic knowledge ... but isn't a lot of it driven by the United States government's need not to pay you a lot for your money?

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 10:08:14 AM

Actually, on the issue of low discount rates, low discount rates also imply much more stringent government regulations on energy efficiency of appliances.

Past studies showed that consumers demonstrated very high discount rates when it came to valuing future energy savings from more efficient appliances. First, I would say that this partly exhibits a form of bounded rationality in that consumers simply couldn't do the math. Many people simply do not know how to deal with present value and time discounting.

Plus, given the many odd features of energy markets (from natural resources to wholesale energy to retail energy) and various externalities associated with energy use, there's a very good chance that energy efficiency confers some positive externalities.

If we add a low social discount rate to this, we obtain much, much more stringent requirements on energy efficiency.

Posted by: Keith at Apr 18, 2007 11:24:06 AM

Keith, what does energy effeciency of appliances have to do with total energy consumption?

odograph: huh?

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 11:48:18 AM

1) i thought the California experience showed that incentives for energy efficient appliances could reduce growth in total energy consumption

2) i thought one of the factors in federal fund rates the feedback loop between interest rate and the growth of overall federal debt (but i phrase it as a question above because i'm not that confident in this)

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 11:55:54 AM

I wrote up a response on my site. I think the main reason that Social Security and global warming are different is that the latter has a so-called long left tail of marginal utility, whereas the damages from not reforming Social Security are relatively certain. Is this why you think Delong is consistent?

Posted by: adamess at Apr 18, 2007 12:01:54 PM

odograph:

1) which experience? Realistically, energy has so many potential uses that merely forgoing some on your
side simply opens an opportunity for someone else somewhere in the world to gobble it up at its now-lower price.

2) Yes, but what does that have to do with a "need not to pay me a lot for my money"? The need not to pay
me a lot for my money is what low interest rates *mean*.

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 12:04:10 PM

1) you are practicing the time-honored tradition of rejecting evidence in favor of theory.

2) is there more than semantics here?

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 12:07:42 PM

odograph:

1) Actually, I'm practicing the time-honored practice of asking you what you are talking about and
reminding you of the concept of elasticity.

2) No, you just asked a meaningless question.

Me: interest rates are low.
You: Isn't that because borrowers don't have to pay much to borrow your money?
Me: That's what low interest rates mean.

Rephrase so I can learn what you really meant.

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 12:43:17 PM

OK, I'm just having fun in the few moments between software development tasks ..

1) search "California energy success" and you will find stories of the successful deflection of growth in energy consumption. i had heard of it as a success in added incentives (rebates) but as i do that search now i also see people claiming it as a simple market success (high california energy prices).

quien sabe

2) i'm asking to what degree borrowers (the market) sets the rates

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 1:27:01 PM

odo:

1) You would have to compare California's reduction to changes elsewhere. The point I was making was that
merely removing your energy use, just leaves lower prices for others to use. Mandating an efficiency is
a sort of "passive mechanism" as opposed to directly inflating the energy price, which leads people to
weight energy consumption higher as a cost.

2) Okay, but that's not what you asked the first time. You asked if the rates resulted from the US not
needing to pay so much. What you meant was if it resulted from borrowers not *wanting* to pay so
much (i.e. their demand curve shape), which would result in the market-clearing (what they *need* to pay)
being so low.

So, as for the answer? Like with 1), the answer lies in the elasticity of the supply and demand curves.
I'd say it's more an issue of non-US-gov borrowers and lenders than the US government. The US gov *must*
borrow a certain amount, while lenders can more easily choose not to lend their money, or private businesses
choose not to issue more debt.

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 1:45:39 PM

Sorry I must have been muddy in my first comments, because:

1) yes, that was what I thought I had seen, comparisons of California's reductions to changes elsewhere

2) yes, when I said something about the government not wanting to pay more, I recognized them as (in significant part) a non-market player

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 2:19:19 PM

I think that part of the reason that consumers seem to apply a high discount rate to energy conserved by appliance purchases is that once you have an appliance it's hard to measure whether it's really conserving the energy you expect it to conserve, so the consumers multiply the claimed energy conservation effect of the more efficient appliance by their estimate of the [fractional] probability that such conservation will in fact be delivered.

Then they deduct some more because they believe the appliance won't perform as well as the less-efficient competitor. Common knowledge is sometimes wrong, of course, but it's common knowledge that you need a 100-watt-equivalent compact flourescent bulb to replace a 75 watt incandescent bulb.

-dk

Posted by: Dick King at Apr 18, 2007 2:39:26 PM

odo:

1) Yes, but my point is higher consumption elsewhere would be an argument *against* efficiency standards because
the energy they didn't use was just bought and used elsewhere due to lower prices resulting from less Cal. demand.

2) huh? You were saying they were a major determinant of the interest rate.

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 3:13:35 PM

"Thus, a low discount rate ought to weigh in favor of doing something about global warming and investing social security funds in the stock market."

Well this implicitly assumes equal confidence in the science behind global warming and the economic projections of the Intermediate Cost alternative of the Social Security Trustees.

Personally I don't have that same confidence. Low Cost has been a much more reliable predictive model over the last decade and has a much different outcome. Moreover it builds in the idea that the consequences are comparable. Well they are not. It is the difference between losing Bangladesh and polar bears and retirees taking a relative minor cut in benefits if and when.

I have looked at the numbers and made the reasoned conclusion that the economy will perform better than Intermediate Cost assumes and that much or all of the current gap should disappear. I may be wrong in that, but I am more than happy to make the bet on Nothing as a plan for Social Security.

That doesn't make me inconsistent and says nothing about my discount rate for the future, it just says that in my considered opinion both the risk and the magnitude of the possible harm are very different on global warming than they are on Social Security.

The kind of amused and patronized exasperation you get from Privatizers that some people simply won't concede that something, anything must be done on Social Security is somewhere between funny and totally annoying. Particularly when they generally refuse to actually engage on the numbers involved.

Posted by: Bruce Webb at Apr 18, 2007 4:12:04 PM

1) that seems kind of arbitrary. if you make the claim that everything affects everything it seems like all comparisons are right out. are the Danes less efficient, because someone is using their exported energy?

bias: i am fractionally Danish myself

2) well i started by stating my lack of confidence in my own understanding. i seems to a non-economist that the US government has a strong ability to set our interest rates.

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 4:12:27 PM

odo:

1) Everything does affect everything else. The question is, is elasticity of energy such that the response to reduced global demand, will be to find new uses for it, or to replace that demand with nothing? Given the huge number of potential uses for energy, the former is far more likely.

2) How? The government "finds out" its interest rate when it auctions its bonds. There, the buyers of the bonds specify how much they'll pay for e.g. $1000 in 10 years, and everyone gets the price sufficient to sell them all. How does the government know how much to issue? Political fighting over the budget. And it seems that this leaves them with an amount they *have* to borrow, leaving them least influential over prices. I'd welcome a reason why this is wrong, though.

Posted by: Person at Apr 18, 2007 6:35:58 PM

1) I don't understand why you first said: "You would have to compare California's reduction to changes elsewhere." and then later claimed that such comparisons are. It strikes me as a dodge.

2) does the interest rate "set" by the fed affect those same auctions?

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 9:18:53 PM

sorry "later claimed such comparisons are [impossible]"

Posted by: odograph at Apr 18, 2007 9:20:16 PM

1) When did I say that? I didn't. I said that higher increases in consumption elsewhere would be, contrary to what you said, evidence against your claim, not for it. I didn't say such comparisons are impossible.

2) The US government is not the fed. When you said government, everyone assumed you meant insofar as the government borrows money. They fed is not the US government, even though it gets its power from the latter. Yes, the fed obviously has influence, but that's not what everyone understood you to be referring to at the beginning.

Posted by: Person at Apr 19, 2007 5:02:23 PM

LOL, "what everyone understood [me] to be refrring to"

I'll take "arrogant interpretation for $500, Bob."

Posted by: odograhp at Apr 19, 2007 5:30:53 PM


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