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Emily Oster sentence of the day
I also show suggestive evidence, based on a very simple calibration, that the magnitude of behavioral response in Africa [to AIDS] is of a similar order of magnitude to that among gay men in the United States, once differences in income and life expectancy are taken into account.
Here is the link. Here is a non-gated version.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 23, 2007 at 11:57 AM in Medicine | Permalink
Comments
This paper by Oster is extremely important.
It has been suggested by many that AIDS in
Africa is driven by "culture" (whatever that
means), hence the economic effects are small.
Oster show that this ain't so.
Tapen
Posted by: Tapen Sinha at Apr 23, 2007 2:31:36 PM
I don't think Oster's comparison to gay American men makes straight Africans of both sexes look very good. Unlike out-of-the-closet American male homosexuals, who have relatively few children and thus little to live for other than their own pleasures, African heterosexuals, who are typically parents, should also have another economic incentive to preserve their health beside just enjoying their own normal life expectancy -- they should take steps to avoid AIDS so they can be around to help out their children and grandchildren.
So, the question remains, why didn't they?
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Apr 23, 2007 3:10:11 PM
Oster shows nothing of the sort. Considered in isolation, the differences in sexual behavior
*could* be explained by this sort of utility-maximizing Homo Economicus. But her general
model fails spectacularly when applied to other groups of people. Let's look for example at the
differences in risk taking between young and old retired people, specifically with respect to how they
drive automobiles. An Oster-style theory would predict that the old people would be speed demons,
taking far more risks than the youngsters, since they had fewer years of life and less future
income to lose in case of a fatal accident. Of course this isn't what we see, because Oster's
theory is as bogus as a 3-dollar bill: she would like to elide the role of poor decision making
and lack of future time orientation as a cause of *both* poverty and risky behavior by making
it look like the latter is a reasoned response to the former. But she's wrong.
Posted by: bbartlog at Apr 23, 2007 3:49:03 PM
These comments are like watching children complain about algebra.
Posted by: goodnessoffit at Apr 23, 2007 4:22:25 PM
bbartlog said:
"Let's look for example at the differences in risk taking between young and old retired people, specifically with respect to how they drive automobiles. An Oster-style theory would predict that the old people would be speed demons, taking far more risks than the youngsters, since they had fewer years of life and less future income to lose in case of a fatal accident. Of course this isn't what we see..."
An Oster-style theory would not predict, as you say, that old people would be speed demons, etc. I believe it would predict that old people would merely continue to drive even as their ability to do so dramatically degrades past the point where merely driving becomes dangerous. That's what old people do.
Sailer said:
"I don't think Oster's comparison to gay American men makes straight Africans of both sexes look very good. Unlike out-of-the-closet American male homosexuals, who have relatively few children and thus little to live for other than their own pleasures, African heterosexuals, who are typically parents, should also have another economic incentive to preserve their health beside just enjoying their own normal life expectancy -- they should take steps to avoid AIDS so they can be around to help out their children and grandchildren."
Your ignorance of what homosexuals have to live for other than their own pleasures is inexcusable in this day and age. The next thing you're going to tell us is that atheists can't have worthy moral standards.
Posted by: Michael Giesbrecht at Apr 23, 2007 4:55:53 PM
For those inclined to knock down Oster's argument, it might help a bit
to actually read her paper. Just a suggestion...
Posted by: Suggestor at Apr 23, 2007 5:23:40 PM
One general problem with economists is that they don't know enough facts, and don't really care enough to learn more.
While reasoning is fun, it's just so much more fun to reason with a full deck of cards.
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Apr 23, 2007 7:03:32 PM
At least they are not the Joker.
Posted by: GoodnessOfFit at Apr 23, 2007 9:14:45 PM
"Unlike out-of-the-closet American male homosexuals, who have relatively few children and thus little to live for other than their own pleasures..."
Wow. Just, wow. Let's hear it for second-class citizens.
Posted by: fustercluck at Apr 23, 2007 10:26:21 PM
An Oster-style theory would not predict, as you say, that old people would be
speed demons, etc. I believe it would predict that old people would merely continue
to drive even as their ability to do so dramatically degrades past the point where
merely driving becomes dangerous. That's what old people do.
Except that, since the supposed drivers are reduced future years of life and
reduced future income, we would expect to see the effect appear much sooner than it
does. You're describing the behavior of very old people. Why are sixty year olds not
worse drivers than twenty year olds? Why doesn't the risk behavior of drivers show a
gradual upward slope instead of a bathtub curve? Why does it seem that impaired judgment, senility,
and force of habit feel like better explanations for bad driving by a ninety year old than this idea that
they're evaluating their future prospects when they decide how to drive?
And yes, I did read the paper. But as you can tell I didn't think much of it. It's from the school of elaborate fig leaf construction, whose products are always much in demand.
Posted by: bbartlog at Apr 24, 2007 12:05:20 AM
What does that mean "fig leaf construction?"
Posted by: empmar at Apr 24, 2007 12:34:30 AM
I want to thank Steven Sailer. His comments continue to make me laugh real hard.
Thank goodness I don't take him seriously.
Maybe it is because I am gay "and thus little to live for other than [my] own pleasures".
Can only hope I won't have a massive heart attack when hysterically laughing at his posts.
Good work Steve!
Posted by: Sheer entertainment at Apr 24, 2007 4:22:31 AM
I want to thank Steven Sailer. His comments continue to make me laugh real hard.
Thank goodness I don't take him seriously.
Maybe it is because I am gay "and thus have little to live for other than [my] own pleasures".
Can only hope I won't have a massive heart attack when hysterically laughing at his posts.
Good work Steve!
Posted by: Sheer entertainment at Apr 24, 2007 4:22:57 AM
I dont think it is fair to compare Africa to gay men. The situation is very different, and so are the living standards. .
AIDS in Arfica is very different from Gay men.
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Posted by: 謝文豪 at Apr 2, 2008 2:36:02 AM
It's funny to see how non-economists just don't get the economic way of thinking at life and how blinded they are by preconceptions, misinformed priors and how completely confused they are by the complexities of the real world. Economists like Emily Oster, on the other hand, manage to abstract from complexities and distill the essentials of problems shedding light on how people behave and what outcomes we observe.
I agree with the Sheer Entertainer: Steve Sailer cracks me up (maybe it's also because I'm gay?) If I took him seriously, I would be telling him what a complete moron I think he is.
Posted by: Dan at May 12, 2008 6:31:13 PM
