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Intergenerational markets in everything?
We print a government bond called a Global Warming Bond. These have stamped on them: "I pay out 1000 indexed pounds in every year - beginning in the year 2050 and going on forever". Bonds would be given out, as a subsidy, to those people and organizations who reduce emissions today.
The bonds would have immediate value. A market in them would spring up. I shall assume that their status as government bonds would make risk of default negligible. One might object to this, but I shall leave it at that.
The attractive thing about these bonds is that (leaving aside technical issues about general equilibrium reallocations across asset classes) they would be funded essentially by future taxpaying citizens. Those earning and paying taxes in 2050 onwards would fund them. Our citizens, in 2007, would gain.
In this way, the unborn would subsidize us to cut carbon emissions.
Ha! There is general case for subsidizing virtuous behavior, but don't think the future people are paying; they inherit both the tax liability and the bonds. Our great-grandchildren pay only to the extent that the existence of the bonds causes us to feel wealthier, spend more, and leave smaller bequests. Even Ph.d. economists miss that point with astonishing regularity. That link is via Mark Thoma, who also links to commentary from Larry Summers and other luminaries.
Here is Mark's new blog experiment.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on February 14, 2007 at 06:09 AM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
One thing that seems fairly important in this type of discussion would be the depreciation rate of the wealth created. I am assuming there is the potential for great variability in that rate, but I never see it discussed.
Is there any data on the difference between wealth depreciation in different countries?
Posted by: theCoach at Feb 14, 2007 8:53:06 AM
>"Our great-grandchildren pay only to the extent that the existence of the bonds causes us to feel wealthier, spend more, and leave smaller bequests."
Isn't that certain to happen, to some extent?
Posted by: Phil at Feb 14, 2007 9:41:51 AM
our grandchildren will inherit the liability; chinese grandchildren will inherit the bonds
Posted by: mic at Feb 14, 2007 10:00:11 AM
A carbon tax with a refundable tax credit based on the number of people in the household, to make it revenue neutral, would subsidize virtuous. A subsidy for reducing emissions is more like paying extortion to the wicked than a subsidy to the virtuous, but it sometimes works, for example North Korea. But why not just use tax revenue. Issuing bonds to make transfer payments is just another way to run up the deficit off budget.
Posted by: joan at Feb 14, 2007 10:38:06 AM
Ronnie Horesh has been writing about social policy bonds for some time, but his idea is not subsidy but rather more like prize. The government issues bonds that make big payments to owner if certain social goals are achieved. The idea is that the bonds will motivate social entrepreneurs to both obtain the bond and solve the problem. See
Injecting incentives into the solution of social problems: Social Policy Bonds by Ronnie Horesh
Economic Affairs, Sept 2000
Posted by: Daniel Klein at Feb 14, 2007 10:43:30 AM
So we agree to pay an infinite price for a fixed improvement?
Or do they work so that if the improvement isn't sustained, the bond is void?
Posted by: bk at Feb 14, 2007 12:13:25 PM
>"Our great-grandchildren pay only to the extent that the existence of the bonds causes us to feel wealthier, spend more, and leave smaller bequests."
They also pay if cutting carbon emmissions slows growth.
Posted by: Doug at Feb 14, 2007 2:22:52 PM
..and Doug, the obvious flip-side, they pay in the form of severe refugee crisis and regular biblical-stle natural disasters if nothing is done.
Posted by: theCoach at Feb 14, 2007 3:21:04 PM
And are the bonds worthless if global warming doesn't happen to be true or anthropogenic? And how is that determined? How about if global warming turns out to be a positive? Do those who retard it have to pay a fine? We certainly don't have any idea right now which way it will go.
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