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Assorted links
1. Jeff Miron is blogging again
2. Bob Chitester, the guy behind "Free to Choose," the TV show
3. The shadow price of a home run
4. Not many editors favor triple blind review, or for that matter sextuple blind review
Posted by Tyler Cowen on February 3, 2007 at 04:57 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
Do you really need to do a scientific research to know that homerun hitters strike out more?
Reggie Jackson once said to a worried Tony Armas, for a while record holder for stikeouts in a season, when they see your home runs the y wont care about your missed swings.43 homeruns , 185 so
And he does not have a phd.
Posted by: jcm at Feb 3, 2007 7:58:42 PM
Miron's blog was, and is again, underwhelming. You don't *have* to link to a blogger just because he's libertarian. Especially when the one is question is so terribly weak.
Posted by: eriks at Feb 3, 2007 10:14:43 PM
Yes, those of us who are interested in sabermetric research really do need scientific research on this topic. While it may be obvious that HR hitters strike out more, this paper provides an estimate of the magnitude of that tradeoff.
And who cares if he doesn't have a PhD? Interesting work is interesting work.
Posted by: 486hunter at Feb 4, 2007 12:09:37 AM
Wouldn't the interesting research be on the whether it's worth it to swing for the fences? Yes, the paper establishes that doing so lessens the contact rate, but how does that affect productivity, and ultimately winning percentage? Would Wade Boggs have been a better or worse player if he had tried to hit more home runs?
Posted by: Hei Lun Chan at Feb 4, 2007 1:55:59 AM
Posted by: jcm at Feb 4, 2007 10:59:25 AM
I have a couple of essays on strikeouts and their impacts. I looked at what happened when players changed their strikeout rate from year to year and the impact on things like batting average is relatively small. If you strikout less, your average goes up, but not alot. If you strikeout more, your average goes down, but not alot.
Strikeouts and the value of hitters
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/28/9349/61300
Cutting down on strikeouts
http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/cuttingdownonstrikeouts.htm
Posted by: Cyril Morong at Feb 4, 2007 1:00:39 PM
Maybe he has been surpassed, but it is my memory that as of not too long
ago, Babe Ruth was tops in having been struck out the most.
Regarding the journal refereeing process, well, one problem with triple
blind is that the editor might send the paper to one of the authors.
Ooops! At a minimum, one would need some kind of screen for that
particular biasing snafu. Furthermore, well-informed and reasonably
fair editors, will, as I have previously argued on this blog, attempt
to send papers to people with diverse views and approaches. Of course
this will simply not occur at all except by accident with triple blind.
Regarding going all the way to sextupble blind, to some degree we are
heading in that direction anyway. After all, most papers are up on
websites somewhere. Given the lags in publication time in economics
(not as bad in most hard sciences), good papers start getting cited
before they ever get published. One can simply look at aggregate
citation rates in all papers anywhere as a measure, and something
like that happens anyway.
BTW, there are a couple of enormously influential papers that either
never got published, or were published in revised forms long after
their main impact hit. One example is the paper on the BDS statistic,
now a standby in the nonlinear econometrics tool box. It initially
appeared in 1986 as a working paper. Almost immediately it was a hit,
and people starting using the method and citing the paper. It got
bogged down at Econometrica over baloney, and only appeared nearly
a decade later in revised form with an additional author in the
Journal of Applied Econometrics, with having had problems getting
pubbed in the interim because, as more than one editor put it to
the authors, "everybody already knows this result and is using it."
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Feb 4, 2007 3:46:27 PM
Babe Ruth was first in career strikeouts until he was passed by Mickey Mantle in 1964. Now he ranks 83rd. But he is still first in trikeout rate if you compare it to the league average. Ruth played in an era when batters did not strikeout much. He struck out 2.31 times for every one time the average player in his era struckout. Ruth led the American League in strikeouts 5 times. He was 2nd 7 times.
Posted by: Cyril Morong at Feb 4, 2007 6:02:46 PM
On the flip side of that Cyril, Ruth also has one of the highest HR rates of any player in baseball history (see comparions below). And while he did strike out a lot, he also retains one of the highest career batting averages of any player at .340. No other power hitter even comes close.
For comparison (at bats per HR):
Mark McGwire: 10.6
Babe Ruth: 11.75 (If you discount his at bats during his first 5 seasons when he was a pitcher, it drops to 11).
Barry Bonds: 13
Manny Ramirez: 14
Ken Griffey Jr: 14.75
Mickey Mantle: 15
Henry Aaron: 16.5
Reggie Jackson: 17.5
Posted by: Shaun M at Feb 5, 2007 9:30:21 PM
Add: Forgot about Ted Williams. He had a career .344 BA, but a 14.75 at bat to HR ratio.
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