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Small steps toward a much better world
Via Henry Farrell, the probabilistic alarm clock:
Lifehacker links to an invention that I’ve thought for years would be a good idea (I’m sure that plenty of other people have had the same thought). Many people have their clocks running a few minutes fast, to encourage them to leave earlier for appointments to get there on time etc. The problem with this is that if you’re half-way rational, you’ll correct for the error, making it useless. So the solution is to have a probabilistic clock, where the clock is fast, but you aren’t sure how fast it is within a given and relatively short time range. Thus, you’re more likely to depart early for your appointments and get there on time (or a few minutes ahead, most probably, in many situations). This is exactly what some bloke has programmed, although it doesn’t appear that it has an alarm feature yet.
Tim Harford covered a similar topic last week.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on January 24, 2007 at 05:07 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
We also covered it here, along with some interesting reader comments.
Posted by: Peter G. Klein at Jan 24, 2007 5:25:25 PM
I program the time on my clock without paying attention to how many minutes fast I've set it. Then I just have to make sure I never look at that clock and another (correct) clock within the same few moments. I'm usually on time.
Posted by: Geoff at Jan 24, 2007 6:02:01 PM
I've been doing this for a few years, and I'm a bit saddened to find out I was the only one. I generally keep mine seventeen minutes fast, for when I'm half conscious it's far too difficult to subtract seventeen, as opposed to fifteen or twenty.
Posted by: JD at Jan 24, 2007 6:02:59 PM
I find it works for me even if I know the exact variance. I simply look at the clock and then turn off my brain, refusing to do the calculation. I have done the not paying attention thing, which probably works even better.
Posted by: BillWallace at Jan 24, 2007 7:40:40 PM
The problem with this is that if you’re half-way rational, you’ll correct for the error...
Um... if you're half-way rational, you wouldn't have the problem in the first place!
Posted by: Tony at Jan 24, 2007 7:50:52 PM
I do this in an informal way. I advance my watch, but then I end forgetting by how much. Also, the watch usually has a trend of its own, which I never keep track of. The result is that I know I should move a little bit before time, but not by how much.
Posted by: Eduardo Pegurier at Jan 24, 2007 7:55:15 PM
I've always considered the habit of setting one's clock ahead in this fashion to be a negative mark on a person's record, so to speak. Personally, I just make a habit of being on time.
However, a clock that didn't allow a person to know exactly what time it was would be beneficial for the hopelessly tardy, though without an alarm, it's utility is greatly diminished.
Also, if one knows that it is always fast - and never slow, it would still produce the same results of the semi-rational person trying to guesstimate how far they can push it without being late.
Posted by: Ray G at Jan 24, 2007 9:04:36 PM
I have an digital alarm clock from Casio that announces the time. So the alarm sounds like this: "[chime][chime][chime] It's 6 o'clock." There is also a setting with one, two or three "?", and if you turn it on, it will announce the time with some degree of variation from the actual time (the ??? will give you the greatest variance). Then the alarm sounds like this: "[chime][chime][chime] It's 6 o'clock....MAYBE". The anxiety of not knowing how far off exactly you are from the actual time will get you awake!
Posted by: Ray at Jan 24, 2007 9:12:57 PM
I've long thought that an alarm clock that uses incentives would be a good idea. In it's crude form, the alarm clock would communicate wirelessly with a paper shredder located in another room. Before going to bed, you put a $20 bill in the shredder. When the alarm goes off, you'd have 5 minutes to get to it and grab your bill before the shredder activates.
The idea came from realizing that my problem getting up in the morning is that I have far too high a discount rate when I've just awakened than I do normally. The rational me who sets the alarm at night knows he'd be better off getting up at that time, but the morning me values staying in bed much more than whatever future benefits getting up and being productive would generate. Putting money in immediate peril would give the morning me an urgent benefit to consider.
Posted by: Jacob Grier at Jan 24, 2007 10:13:49 PM
I have been playing similar tricks with myself for years. First, I set my clock some odd number of minutes ahead. Soon I got used to it. Then, I started searching for these so-called problematic watches and clocks, and indeed found a couple. Only days later, I could fully grasp its first-order condition. Then, I had to combine a problematic watch with setting it some odd minutes ahead. Still, I “outwit” that little monster. Worse still, I have learnt to systematically overestimate how fast my watch goes. Now in my world of fuzzily-tuned, faster-running watches and clocks, I still run out-of-breath to engagements. The bottom line is that in the long run, life is likely to be watch-neutral.
Posted by: Yan Li at Jan 25, 2007 8:01:51 AM
After I turn the light out I move the alarm clock ahead a little. It might be 3 or 4 minutes, it might be 10 or 12. I don't know.
Posted by: lee at Jan 25, 2007 9:58:57 AM
Why wouldn't people just adjust to assume the clock is fast by the expected number of minutes under some risk neutral measure?
Posted by: DK at Jan 25, 2007 10:24:33 AM
I set my girlfriend's alarm clock, and she won't let me tell her how fast I've set it. I think it is a tool for getting to bed on time, rather than for getting up, because a) she knows I've calibrated the alarm so that it goes off at a known exact time, b) her trigger to get up is my being ready to make breakfast, not her alarm, and c) getting up has never been a problem for her.
Posted by: rvman at Jan 25, 2007 11:33:11 AM
Jacob: Interesting. My discount rate is very low first thing, but rises quickly. In Freudian terms, my superego is awake for about half an hour before my id wakes up. My morning starts out with a robotic "Time to make the donuts" mentality. It used to be the opposite - in college I had one alarm clock which had a snooze alarm cycle of 4 minutes, and another with a 9 munute cycle. Despite alarms sounding over 20 times, I got out of bed about an hour after they first started going off - and fell back asleep each time after hitting snooze, if I was ever awake in the first place. At some point I decided this was a complete waste about 4% of my life, and recalibrated.
Posted by: rvman at Jan 25, 2007 11:47:36 AM
It is easier to program oneself to be out the door at Oh Eight Hundred than at 7:55. If 7:55 is the departure time which results in arriving at work at the 8:30 starting time, then setting the clock ahead five minutes is a rational and effective technique.
At least it has worked for us.
Posted by: triticale at Jan 25, 2007 4:22:09 PM
These days, most people I know use their mobile phones as time-keepers, a fact which suggests a new era of synchronization (given that most phones derive their time from coordinated satellites). Perhaps Apple will introduce a probabilistic clock as a new feature in the iPhone, pushing things the other way.
Posted by: Trieu Truong at Jan 26, 2007 7:36:31 AM
If you are late you either did not want to be there in the first place or you are dead -- Ernst Hemingway
Posted by: Murphy at Jan 26, 2007 11:26:45 AM
I have my clock set ahead minutes also.. The trick is to set all of your clocks forward for the same time. So when you are looking at your clocks you always know you are running early, because you would have forgotten how many minutes you ahve set them forward. Make it an uneven number. You will always be running early.
Posted by: Miller, T at Jan 26, 2007 2:27:46 PM
I set the downstairs clocks forward, but I dont tell my wife or kids that I have done it. I then let my wife and kids fret at the fact that we are running late, pushing each other and me out the door. If I dont mention that the clock is fast everything goes like clockwork :)
Posted by: dlondonx at Jan 26, 2007 2:37:38 PM
yea I guess you could set a clock a few minutes early and not really know how early, but once you get to
your appointment you will realize how far forward you actually did set your clock. So in essence, i think
that it doesnt really matter. Responsible adults should be able to be where there supposed to be when they
say theyll be there. Ive never had a problem being on time, and ive never set my clocks ahead.
Posted by: james at Jan 26, 2007 5:42:55 PM
The pastime of playing mindgames with the alarm clock is one of life's simple and underrated pleasures. Why spoil your morning with efficiency-enhancing tricks that *actually* work?
Posted by: Chris Wren at Jan 26, 2007 8:49:35 PM
I can only speak for myself because I use to set my clock a few minutes ahead so I won’t be late getting to school but I have no problem of getting up anymore. Eventually people will start to get use to waking up a few minutes early, that they would not have to use an alarm clock anymore. I understand where the author is coming from but if these clock is more expensive then setting your own watch a few minutes early then I don’t know how much profit he will make. Also if you weren’t sure of how early you got up then the regular time then you would probable rather sit there and try to figure that out; which can still make you late while if you set your own watch you would know and that would take a couple seconds of thinking and a little after that, that person will probably have forgot about setting the time and manage to be early. One more thing, people are use to having more then one clock around the house, so if you have all these other clocks that have the same time and have the one that is off by whatever amount there would not be a point to it because people will look at the other clock to see how fast it is from the one.
Posted by: Student at Jan 29, 2007 6:57:39 PM
Murphy: Would that be Ernst Stavro Hemmingway?
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