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Assorted links
1. Market-based management blog
2. The prospect of prison doesn't seem to deter crime
3. How to improve drug policy, by Mark Kleiman
4. Suggestions for French economic policy
Posted by Tyler Cowen on January 31, 2007 at 04:01 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
The article on prisons is interesting. The new papers suggest it is actual incapacitation and not so much the incentive to deter that prevents crime. These studies have interesting and timely implications because the UK prison system is full, and judges are being asked to consider this 'no vacancy' problem when dishing out sentences to criminals. At first, I thought this increased leniency would reduce the price of crime and that petty crime would increase as a result. It is reassuring then, that criminals may not respond to this incentive of potentially reduced sentences. Nevertheless, if the studies are correct, then reduced incapacitation would still produce more crime at the end of the day, even if the skewed incentives (from increased leniency) don't play a role.
Posted by: Caravaggio at Feb 1, 2007 9:43:26 AM
The prison article is indeed interesting. For me, the prospect of involuntary confinement is horrible and I would certainly seek to avoid it. It doesn't seem to work as much for teenagers. Why? Random wacky theories:
1) For the at-risk teenagers who commit crime, school and the rest of the life is virtually like prison anyway
2) Teenagers who commit crime are tend to be very present-focused instead of future-focused, and have a poor sense of time
2) could sort of argue for more immediate corporal punishments rather than involuntary incarceration for teenagers, but society could miss out on the incapacitation benefits of incarceration.
Posted by: John Thacker at Feb 1, 2007 12:47:28 PM
I also found the prison article interesting, but I'm not sure I agree with applying the conlcusions from a small sample of the criminal population (17-19-year-olds)to the population as a whole. This runs into the age-old problem in economics that people are not always rational decision makers. Anecdotally, any parent will tell you that teenagers tend not to be rational decision makers. I suspect that any police officer will tell you that criminals are not particularly rational decision makers, either. Teenage criminals? You might be better off assuming complete irrationality until they reach at least their twenties. That said, I tend to think that consequences follow decisions in a fairly rational way in nature (you don't plant food, you starve), as well as in markets (you make bad investments, you lose your shirt), and I'd personally sleep better at night having warned delinquents that if they continue to break they law they may end up incarcerated, rather than just telling them that kharma will come back to them someday.
Posted by: d.cous. at Feb 1, 2007 12:57:00 PM
I like those thoughts John. Your second point about young people being focussed on the present surely holds - I don't have the time to look, but studies must surely exist that show a negative correlation between a person's age and their focus on the present versus the future. If not, this is could be an interesting avenue for behavioural experiments. Afterthought: After a certain age, as we near our natural expiration, I wonder if we shift our thinking away from the future (unlikely to exist) and back to the present.
Other points for consideration include:
- A kind of romanticised or glamourised view of prison life by the fictional media. If people had a real understanding/complete information, the deterrent may be more effective.
- Humans are not always rational agents, and teenagers tend to be the least rational, as d.cous discusses.
- Incentives and deterrents may work differently for different age brackets. For teenagers, who tend to pay greater mind to how they are perceived by their peers, a better deterrent than incarceration may be some kind of lasting, public humiliation.
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