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Should libertarians side with the Democrats?
I cannot top Daniel Drezner's survey of Brink Lindsay's argument, for background read that first. My thoughts run as follows...
First perhaps libertarians are not very numerous and thus they are playing against immovable opponents in the relevant political game. That is, they won't get anything back from Democrats. That also suggests their support is worth nothing, and the decision can be viewed in that framework. I suspect this is the relevant case.
Alternatively, perhaps libertarians are numerous enough to get some concessions from Democrats. They would be playing a "threat-bluff-bargain" game with the two major parties. Isn't a mixed strategy usually best in these settings? It becomes a question of "how much" to lean toward a party rather than "whether." Libertarians would not want Republicans to feel they were abandoned altogether. In any case the key is to act strong, offer more than you really have, and be prepared to bolt.
Keep also in mind there is a nested game within the so-called "libertarian movement." Strategies which make sense in a coordinated fashion often fail when there is discord from within. If libertarians think that the Republicans need to worry about the libertarians bolting, well, I suspect the libertarians have more than a few potential bolters of their own.
My personal inclination is not to worry too much about such matters. None of the obvious arguments, even if they appear strong, get us very far toward an answer.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on December 4, 2006 at 04:33 PM in Political Science | Permalink
Comments
Libertarians, both small-l and big-L, should think more about shifting coalitions than which party to side with. You have your sets of issues, now figure out who you have to ally with in order to implement your agenda. Put the environmentalists together with the economic conservatives to form the anti-ag subsidy coalition, for example.
I think the Libertarian Party could come in handy if libertarians would use the Party more strategically. If one of the two major party candidates is "libertarian enough," the LP doesn't run a candidate of their own and actively supports that candidate. If neither candidate fills the bill, then run a candidate. If you wanted to be even more sophisticated, make the decision based on the relative difference in "libertarianness." Thus, the Party might still support a not-so libertarian candidate if doing so would unseat a hardcore unlibertarian. You'd do even better if you target close races, especially Senate races in small states.
The libertarians really need to maximize the leverage of their modest numbers, and focusing on tight races and strategically deciding who to support and whether to run a candidate are ways to do this.
My biggest problem with libertarian political activists at this point (other than just plain disagreeing on the optimal size of government) is their whole anti-tax thing.
Like Tyler, I think libertarians should be a bit smarter about realizing that taxes are very desirable from the point of view of limiting government, because taxesactually show voters what government costs. Plus, the income tax is the least distortionary way to raise government dollars, so the libertarian opposition to the income tax strikes me as nutty.
I'd like to see the libertarians have more of an effect on American politcs, because I think libertarians would be most effective on those particular issues where they are correct.
Posted by: Keith at Dec 4, 2006 4:56:48 PM
This analysis ignores the effect of the Green party. My suspicion is that for every libertarian vote the Democrats might gain by enacting more libertarian friendly economic policies, they lose one, or even more, progressive member to the Green party. The Republicans don't have that issue, because there isn't a party that's drawing even a tiny minority of votes that would siphon off votes from the Republicans if they don't appear socially-conservative enough.
Posted by: C L at Dec 4, 2006 5:08:00 PM
For me, it's all about divided government. I don't really "support" either party; I merely try to make sure they fight too much to do anything constructive.
Posted by: Sandy at Dec 4, 2006 5:10:43 PM
As a big L Liberty-tarian, let me affirm first that "Taxation Is Theft."
I have a button that proves it.
Taxes do nothing to limit government, nor do they show what government
costs. There are off budget expenditures, there is inflation of the
money supply and depreciation of the currency, and there is the cost of
regulation and other things government does like killing people and
destroying property. Government also influences interest rates and other
economic phenomena, which has a cost. To think you can understand this
with a number like the tax take is rather naive.
All taxes distort behavior to some extent, but the assertion that the
income tax is the least distortionary tax is also
debatable. After all, the income tax has all sorts of deductions and
exemptions for starters. Do you itemize or not? File a schedule C
(self-employed person)? If so, what expenses do you deduct?
Do you deduct your home office expense, which can be a big red flag?
Congress is lobbied all the time to increase certain deductions.
There are serious debates about this, and everyone recognizes that the
income tax induces certain sorts of behavior (the home owners' deduction
is meant to encourage home ownership, for example). Renters don't get
a deduction.
Consider a sales tax. No one can deduct it. You can avoid it only by
buying stuff on the black market, or maybe on the internet.
It doesn't care if you're a home owner or not, if you have dependents or
not, if you'r a small business owner or not, if you have capital gains or
not and how big they are. It doesn't come with a laundry list of exemptions
and deductions, except that the clergy are exempt, at least they used to
be in New York state. I don't know about other states.
The view that the income tax is the least distortionary tax looks
curiouser and couriouser the more I think about it.
Posted by: Bill Stepp at Dec 4, 2006 5:57:52 PM
If they are true libertarians how can they be coordinated to be for or against any party? Even having a party strategy would be stretching it.
Posted by: Rob at Dec 4, 2006 5:57:53 PM
I suspect a political science argument would be more useful here than an economic one.
As you note, there aren't many Libertarians - so their support isn't worth much in terms of votes. However, the well-educated set that write in newspapers, pontificate on Sunday mornings, and generally set the tone of news coverage lean much more libertarian than the general population. So there could be an argument that getting those folks' sympathies would be worth a bunch of marginal votes.
Posted by: ptm at Dec 4, 2006 6:09:14 PM
"...because taxesactually show voters what government costs."
In theory. But most people don't pay much for our government, and what they do pay is often obfuscated. Nevermind that when spending exceeds taxation, taxation is less clear as a reflection of the costs.
Posted by: David Andersen at Dec 4, 2006 7:25:26 PM
The Libertarian Reform Caucus advocates a flexible alliance process wherein libertarians leverage the votes they can garner, bargaining with whomever will make reasonable offers in close elections. Many small parties do this in Europe and not only publicize their ideas effectively, but also play kingmaker on occasion.
With so many close elections right here in the US, it is time to stop complaining that we don't have all the prerogatives that third parties have in Europe. Check out plans for "Building Liberty Today" and the story of how much of the LP's platform was discarded at the recent national convention: http://www.reformthelp.org/home/intro/
Posted by: Dave Meleney at Dec 4, 2006 8:41:24 PM
As Stalin might have said, "How many divisions do the libertarians have?" Libertarians are far more prevalent on the Web than in the voting booth.
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Dec 4, 2006 8:47:31 PM
Remember the old joke:
If you're a Democrat, you want more people to vote Libertarian.
If you're a Republican, you want more people to vote Green.
Posted by: Peter at Dec 4, 2006 9:21:07 PM
I don't agree with the whole Taxation is theft crowd.
It is more like Taxation is Extortion. Some guy comes around selling you "protection", some times he protects you from others but usually he is the one you need to be protected from. Anyway, we are all Sharecroppers now.
Posted by: Azer at Dec 4, 2006 9:53:52 PM
David Andersen, I completely agree with you that many other factors may drive the amount of government beyond the optimum.
However, at least having taxpayers see how much government costs does provide some check. Even if we don't get the perfect level of government, having some brake is still very useful. And I'm guessing that people who pay the taxes tend to self-select more into voting, so having government spending covered by taxes so taxpayers see the costs still provides an important political check.
In addition, maintaining a balanced budget is simply responsible fiscal policy regardless of your beliefs about the optimal size of government. And I think it's good to support responsible fiscal policy, period.
Posted by: Keith at Dec 4, 2006 9:53:58 PM
I'm not sure whether or not playing a mixed game is really necessary for identifiable voting blocks. African Americans and Jews have both shown consistent resistance to Republican overtures, but it hasn't stopped Republicans for making a play for these groups. Now it could be that those plays are disingenuous and are just designed to get the other side to sink money into a bloc that they thought was safe. Hypothetically (these numbers are drawn out of thin air, but they have actual correlates), let's say that Republicans can afford to a 10-point gender gap but Democrats can't let it drop below 7-points. It makes sense for Republicans to try to make a play for that bloc... but on the other hand, it does seem like some Republican strategists are genuinely interested in expanding the party's base to, say, Catholic Hispanics. The Democrats, similarly, are not ready to give up on places like Kansas despite it being solid Red. So it seems like something else might be going on with how political strategists relate to voting blocs.
Posted by: Omri Ceren at Dec 4, 2006 10:05:50 PM
Libertarians should stick to principles. If we leak at the seams, we are not different from Conservative
and from Liberals.
Posted by: Luis Figueroa at Dec 4, 2006 11:18:33 PM
"Libertarians are far more prevalent on the Web than in the voting booth."
That's my sense, too, but why would that be true?
Posted by: AC at Dec 5, 2006 12:22:45 AM
I'd think that libertarians would want to do something crazy, like persuade people to believe the things they do. After all, if more Americans supported deregulation, or free trade, or immigration, or free markets, etc., then perhaps--just perhaps--one of the major parties would come around to that view.
Posted by: Thomas at Dec 5, 2006 12:23:13 AM
I don't agree with the whole Taxation is theft crowd.
It is more like Taxation is Extortion. Some guy comes around selling you "protection", some times he protects you from others but usually he is the one you need to be protected from. Anyway, we are all Sharecroppers now.
Posted by: Azer at Dec 5, 2006 12:39:03 AM
Why are libertarians far more prevalent on the Web than in real life? Who needs real life when you've got the Internet? Both libertarianism and the Internet attract a lot of nerdy bachelors who are good at logic, but perhaps don't understand how the world actually works quite as well as they imagine they do.
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Dec 5, 2006 12:40:43 AM
Wow, Steve, you just summed me up completely. (no sarcasm)
Posted by: Noumenon at Dec 5, 2006 1:04:25 AM
I always find it amusing to hear that libertarians support liberal immigration policies. Perhaps libertarians are committed to some sort of suicide pact. The harsh reality is that the US is importing people who will reject libertarian ideas with passion, enthusiasm, and ultimately out of brute necessity. Take a look at the outstanding article by Heather Mac Donald over in City Journal “Hispanic Family Values? Runaway illegitimacy is creating a new U.S. underclass” (http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_4_hispanic_family_values.html).
Who actually thinks that the underclass will support libertarian ideas? Anyone? Even if they wanted to, they couldn’t. By definition, the underclass is utterly dependent on government largess.
These aren’t hypothetical points. California has shifted relentlessly to the left as immigration has brought a steadily poorer and more government dependent population into the state… And the voting both. The same process is evident in New York state and elsewhere.
The truth is that the corporate/libertarian right slavers for the cheap labor the Open Borders provides. Since rock bottom wages and no benefits lead inevitably to dependence, the taxpayer gets stuck with the bill.
This is a formula for endlessly expanding government, not a libertarian oriented society. Libertarians need to recognize that their vision is only possible in a nation where labor pays well enough to support a worker and his/her family. That means rigidly closed borders.
Posted by: Peter Schaeffer at Dec 5, 2006 1:42:06 AM
Ok, so I'm just throwing this out there.
Aren't taxes, especially progressive income taxes, the price to live in a country? I assume most libertarians would support price descrimination (or at least think it should be allowable), and progressive income taxes are just another form of price descrimination.
This just occured to me so feel free to point out where this is wrong.
Posted by: eriks at Dec 5, 2006 3:02:33 PM
The reason libertarians are more prevalent on the web than in the voting booth is very simple: people don't vote FOR the candidate they want. Instead, they vote AGAINST the candidate they hate the most. You do that by voting for the second-most-likely candidate, not the third-most-likely.
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