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Will European social democracy survive?
Here is my essay over at CrookedTimber. Here is the whole symposium, which is on Sheri Berman's new book on social democracy. Part II will be up tomorrow, with Matt Yglesias and Brad DeLong, among others.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 30, 2006 at 01:46 PM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
Tyler, the link you posted in the comments over there is broken.
Posted by: bob montgomery at Oct 30, 2006 3:07:21 PM
My big questions I have comparing European and US growth are sector questions.
One is on productivity. Much of the superior growth of us productivity growth
in recent years is because of much stronger retail productivity growth in
the US. It is a great example of free markets vs over regulated markets.
But the point that the European retail sector is over regulated seems to
be a very very minor point in the overall issue of comparing the two systems.
Second, much of the US superior growth in recent years appears to stem from
the way we treat high tech capital spending in our gdp accounts -- both from the way we deflate high tech and because we redefined software as capital spending
rather then current spending. Both are correct decision, but the Europeans have not followed our example. So if they redefined gdp the way we have, how much of a difference would there be in European and US growth. I do not know but I think it is a serious question
we need to address because we might find that the supposed problem of much weaker European growth is not nearly as big a problem as we think.
Posted by: spencer at Oct 30, 2006 3:36:27 PM
You respect your philosophical opponents too much. I wish you weren't so avuncular sometimes. If you were debating slavery with an ancient athenian or a southern cavelier, would show respect for their views by claiming that abolition will mean the disintegration of a way of life you love?
Posted by: Rue Des Quatre Vents at Oct 30, 2006 6:48:57 PM
Rue: You don't convince people of stuff with emotion. They will just be emotional back. You convince them with reason.
Posted by: eric at Oct 30, 2006 10:27:41 PM
Hmmm, kind of lumping all the western Europeans together
here are we?
Actually in France and some of the Scandinavian countries
the birth rates have been picking up again at least somewhat.
The lesson seems to be more social democracy, particular
solid child support, unlike Germany and some of the Med
countries, where birth rates are especially low.
Also, the riff on growth is off, again for the Nordics, as
noted in previous threads. You have overstated how far behind
they are, Tyler. Indeed, Norway is ahead of the US right now,
which is not all just oil, and Denmark is just behind the US.
So for much of western Europe, the way out may be more social
democracy along Nordic lines.
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Oct 30, 2006 10:44:20 PM
The US fertility rates for non southern women of European decent is about 1.7, higher than Italy but less than France. The only reason we are at replacement level is the high birth rate of immigrants. We have the same demographic problems Europe has.
Posted by: joan at Oct 31, 2006 1:39:12 AM
Thanks. Well said.
I gave up about half way through the comments. While there are serious-minded social democrats like John Quiggin, most just seem to be in it to feel morally superior.
You might find interesting this article from Der Spiegel on the emergence of a white welfare underclass in Europe:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,442649,00.html
Like you, I think, I'd attribute the relatively more healthy character of the white working class (the lower crime, illegitimacy, and drunkeness rates) in America to more religion and less welfare:
http://www.vdare.com/Sailer/050410_ruin.htm
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Oct 31, 2006 2:05:53 AM
I looked up the "data" reference you suggested
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2006/el0605.html
It cherry picks data to support a point of view with pretty graphics. If you want to make a case instead of scoring debating points you should use an honest data set and answer some of the points made by
http://3quarksdaily.blogs.com/3quarksdaily/2006/04/
eurobashing_som.html
I would like to know how much a welfare state hurts growth, but it is a complex subject and no one seems to approach it without an agenda.
Posted by: joan at Oct 31, 2006 4:01:10 AM
Joan,
I see the French reproductive figure quoted a lot. Are these numbers including the number of children that North African immigrants (and 1st and 2nd generation) are having?
Posted by: Shaun at Oct 31, 2006 5:33:00 AM
Steve et. al.,
MR supports HTML links in comments.
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