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Hiroshima
In case you had forgotten. The Japanese haven't. Here is the pointer. Here is Thomas Schelling on nuclear weapons. Kim Jong's favorite movies? "Friday the 13th and Hong Kong action films. He is a big fan of Rambo and James Bond."
Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 9, 2006 at 12:35 AM in Current Affairs, History | Permalink
Comments
The immediate reactions of the media to the North
Korean test are curious. Fox is going on about how
now the allies in Asia will see how right the US is
about sanctions on North Korea. CNN is full of
commentators noting that a deal was ready to be cut
with North Korea a year ago, but hardliners in the
Bush administration blocked it, leading to this test.
Schelling in his talk emphasizes above all the
necessity of talking with one's enemy. The Bush people
have been urged by the other six to do so privately
with the North Koreans. They have not, and now we
have this result, even if it is being written off in
some quarters as "a fizz not a pop."
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Oct 9, 2006 2:26:42 AM
My libertarian friends on the net (some of them) and certainly the conservative ones
want to Nuke Iran.
As a preemptive move, to prevent them getting nuclear weapons, given than a US conventventional
attack on iran is doomed to failure. To stop Islam from destroying us or Israel first.
This is a measure of how far the 'Clash of Civilizations' rhetoric has infiltrated the b
blogosphere.
Posted by: Valuethinker at Oct 9, 2006 3:37:21 AM
I also note a silence on 'nuke North Korea'.
The conclusion I would draw if I was Brasil/North Korea/Iran/Syria/AN other country
likely to come into conflict with the US in the future, is get nuclear weapons *first*.
Posted by: Valuethinker at Oct 9, 2006 3:38:32 AM
I'll be in Hiroshima in a few days and will blog about my experiences!
Posted by: Ben Casnocha at Oct 9, 2006 4:53:14 AM
Say, what happened to Israel, India, and Pakistan, long term, for becoming nuclear powers more-or-less openly? What do we expect to happen to North Korea? And what incentives does, say, Iran have in this world? Hell, what incentives do, say, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, and Finland have? Presumably any of those countries could have nukes if they decided to spend the effort. Many of them may find that they are facing multiple nuclear powers around them.
This isn't about some goofy "clash of civilizations" rhetoric, it's about moving toward a world with 20-30 acknowledged nuclear powers, each with nuclear deterrents pointed at one or more neighbors, each with opportunities to lose track of some nukes or some plutonium. Every addition to the nuclear club pushes us toward that world, both directly and by reminding more countries that they may not want to rely for their nation's survival on the willingness of the existing nuclear powers to protect them.
Posted by: albatross at Oct 9, 2006 9:31:29 AM
We have been close to nuclear war before and I think it was more luck than anything that saved us. I think it is just a matter of time before someone makes a mistake, is willing to call a bluff, or someone is willing to bring the temple down on his head. I think what is most important then is working to lower the stakes. Decreasing the total number of nuclear weapons in the world should be amoung the top priorities of the department of defense. This means being willing to destroy much of the united states own nuclear arsonal. I trust the United States with nuclear weapons far more than I trust Iran, North Korea, or even Isreal, but one simple fact that people seem to find incredibly elusive is that no one thinks that they are the bad guy. The notion that Isreal can have nuclear weapons but Iran can't is not going to fly with Iran. Because in Iran they think they are the good guys.
Posted by: Michael F at Oct 9, 2006 10:15:56 AM
The conclusion I would draw if I was Brasil/North Korea/Iran/Syria/ANY other country likely to come into conflict with the US in the future, is get nuclear weapons *first*.
Why did you include Brazil on that list?
Posted by: Peter at Oct 9, 2006 10:30:31 AM
Herr Cowen,
The NPT is flawed. A few countries should not have exclusive access to nuclear weapons.
A nuclear Iran would be a more stable and sane Iran; not a more dangerous one.
Israel must learn to share.
Posted by: Chairman Mao at Oct 9, 2006 12:07:48 PM
I think what is most frightening about North Korea potentially having nuclear weapons is not that they may be pointed at the U.S., Japan or South Korea. What frightens me is North Korea’s historical willingness to sell weapons to anyone willing to pay.
Posted by: J.C. Zannis at Oct 9, 2006 12:36:02 PM
Peter
Because you have to think far ahead when you are planning to defend your country. Do the US and Brazil have potentially conflicting interests in the future? Does the US have a history of military intervention within what Brazil might term its 'sphere of influence'?
Think Japan. Think India. Think South Africa. Think Saudi Arabia. They all
have technological capability and potential reasons in the future to confront
the United States.
Vt
Posted by: Valuethinker at Oct 9, 2006 3:15:21 PM
Actually, Brazil did have a major nuclear weapons research program in the past, which they voluntarily abandoned. Likewise Argentina. I don't think they have ANY chance of coming into military conflict with the US; they are too smart for that, and the US is busy recruiting them as a junior partner; we'd like Brazilian troops to run Haiti for us.
But there are nationalist elements in the Brazilian military who disagreed with the decision to end the nuclear research program, and I would agree with putting them on the list -- in a world with 20-30 nuclear powers countries like Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden will definitely sign up.
Sweden, BTW, also had a significant nuclear program. Many peace-loving neutrals have seen nuclear weapons as a good alternative to making a superpower alliance.
Posted by: DK at Oct 9, 2006 7:07:54 PM
I don't think that NK has enough to loose. We should completely remove all sanctions and encourage them to participate in the world economy. Especially in trade with the U.S. Once they get fat and happy and realize that continuing to be the bad kid is going to lead to nothing but misery, they will behave.
Posted by: KP at Oct 10, 2006 1:52:23 PM
