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Assorted
1. Complete works of Charles Darwin, now on-line.
2. Truth markets, explained by Dubner.
3. The money says Republicans still might hold both Houses.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on October 26, 2006 at 02:25 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
Remember what risk the nations of Europe ran, not so many centuries ago of being overwhelmed by the Turks, and how ridiculous such an idea now is! The more civilized so-called Caucasian races have beaten the Turkish hollow in the struggle for existence. Looking to the world at no very distant date, what an endless number of the lower races will have been eliminated by the higher civilized races throughout the world.
And this one from The Descent of Man:
At some future period, not very distant as measured by centuries, the civilised races of man will almost certainly exterminate and replace throughout the world the savage races. At the same time the anthropomorphous apes, as Professor Schaaffhausen has remarked,16 will no doubt be exterminated. The break will then be rendered wider, for it will intervene between man in a more civilised state, as we may hope, than the Caucasian, and some ape as low as a baboon, instead of as at present between the negro or Australian and the gorilla.
Posted by: John Thacker at Oct 26, 2006 2:50:44 PM
So interesting, having that full text search and seeing exactly what passed for science in those days. Nuggets of wisdom, but disturbing things too.
Posted by: John Thacker at Oct 26, 2006 2:51:53 PM
*This* money begs to differ:
SENATE -- http://tradesports.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=291848&z=1160393249142
HOUSE --
http://tradesports.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=291849&z=1160393282149
Posted by: Christopher Cassidy at Oct 26, 2006 7:43:33 PM
Swinging a few close races by a few percentge points could leave the GOP
with slim majorities - not that they deserve it.
Weather and voter turn-out will be pivotal.
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt at Oct 26, 2006 9:52:02 PM
The third conclusion is spurious. Congressional candidates with more money win 93% of the time because incumbency is an overwhelming advantage, correlated with both superior fundraising and higher victory rates. Removed from incumbency, money has a decidedly smaller effect. In a year when incumbency's benefits are mitigated more heavily than usual, the aid of additional dollars is particularly less dramatic.
Christopher Cassidy (an above commentor) is correct. Though much can be learned from the flow of money to candidates -- investors (or campaign contributors, if you prefer) are better served to push their money toward candidates likely to win -- a much purer guage of this likelihood can be found in the gambling markets. Pure bettors are less influenced many of the influences, such as personal political preferences, that campaign contributors allow to affect their investment choices.
Posted by: Lucas Tate at Oct 27, 2006 12:46:42 AM
It's certainly true that the polls report significant majority of people claiming to favor Democrats in upcoming house races. But I haven't seen any overwhelming evidence, RACE-BY-RACE, that the GOP is gonna lose control of the house. It will be close, but I'm predicting a narrow hold (losing 10-14 seats but retaining control.) I think the TradeSports odds (currently ~38% that the GOP holds the house) are too pessimistic -- largely because "everyone knows" that incumbents are in trouble.
"A significant majority" of Democratic voters could still win 1 seat by a landslide and lose 7 seats by a hair. Just like the Electoral college, regionality matters in these house races -- but, unlike the electoral college, states are not generally all-or-none.
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