« Imagining the 10th Dimension | Main | New issue of Econ Journal Watch »
What would dollar depreciation bring?
From the National Bureau of Economic Research, here is the latest on the J-curve:
The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through into prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements — pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.
Here is the paper. This asymmetry is no accident but rather stems, in large part, from the central role of the dollar as a reserve currency and a medium for invoice pricing. When an Asian export is priced in terms of dollars in the first place, exchange rate movements lead to less pass-through. In other words, to the extent we would see an improvement in our trade balance, from dollar depreciation, it would be vis-a-vis the countries with the highest propensity to consume more American exports. It would not be with the countries whose exports we are most likely to consume. This also means that we cannot in every way extrapolate European currency experience to the United States.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on September 12, 2006 at 07:22 AM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
If you look at the apparent recent improvement in the real
trade balance you will see that export growth is improving
significantly while import growth may or may not be slowing--
and that slowing may be more a function of changes in domestic demand.
So emerging trends may be right in line with what the paper implies.
Posted by: spencer at Sep 12, 2006 8:07:01 AM
And what happens to the status of the dollar as a reserve currency if we devaluate? This is essentially arguing that we should rob foreign currency holders because we would get their money. Might work okay, but I wouldn't count on their being no response by these holders.
Posted by: Nathan Zook at Sep 12, 2006 8:59:32 AM
US exports would be affected much less than expected, and trade balance would worsen in a sense,
because the production of US productions have been soooo localized or globalized.
The most common goods of US in the world market is: Coca Cola, Pepsi, McDonald, AutoMobiles,
Dell/HP Computers,Nike/Addidas shoewear, or many other products that have been enjoying low cost of localization.
When dollar depreciates, world comsumers would continue to consume the products the local products branded in
a US firm, usually cheaply. Few people would buy Cola, Pepsi, Burger,Cars, Dells, Nikes, etc, simply because
US native products are offering 5% discount. People would not do it, because there are immense transportation cost
incurred the two big oceans on both side of America.
On the contrary, there would be more US firms moving out of USA, because goods would grow more costly to produce in America.
Another thing is the worsening of domestic consumers' welfare, as they would enjoy less the low cost goods
produced by US trade partners. But,world consumers would not likely consume more US-produced goods, either
because US goods have been produced locally, or US goods are kept away by the Altantic and Pacific Oceans.
I would say, the exchange rate elasticy of US exports is low.
Posted by: S.L Lin at Sep 12, 2006 1:02:25 PM
Tyler -- No disagreement from me. This conclusions is consistent with Menzie Chinn's work on trade elasticities as well. It is hard to get adjustment on the import side from XR moves alone.
Though note that the elasticities/ export argument applies also --i presume -- to China's exports (in $) to europe.
But i would apply the bigger argument about the difficulty generalizing here as well. Greenspan argued that pass-through from XR moves to import prices was declining in 04 (or early 05)on the back of very little evidence european firms were raising their $ prices to offset moves in the $/ euro. But certainly seemed to be true -- whether because they just ate the XR moves with lower margins (Greenspan) or they were already hedged.
i think it is possible -- and lord knows i don't know -- that if the argument that many Chinese firms operate with very thin margins is true (and I am not sure it is true, i suspect it is overstated, but it is a common argument), they wouldn't be able to eat XR moves in their margins. you have to have a margin to begin with so to speak. Which might imply a bit more pass-through to US import prices from moves in the RMB/ $ than moves in the $/ euro. We just don't have much evidence here -- China has been part of the $ block for a long-time, so all the econometrics working off recent data (which is the only data that picks up the world after China became a big player) is effectively data that has next to know information about how us imports (or exports) respond to moves in the RMB/ $.
Posted by: brad setser at Sep 12, 2006 1:16:21 PM
What about the oil equation? US production continues to decline, US population continues to increase, and a loss of value in the dollar would drive the price higher. You can't assume all trade is just manufactured goods. Raw materials, especially oil, puts a bust in the theory. Exporting a manufacturing base and importing an energy base is a big problem. the deficits will only get bigger with a devalued dollar, as they have since 2001.
Posted by: b at Sep 12, 2006 6:07:57 PM
I still don't see how the dollar can fluctuate in value against other currencies when it is pegged to the Chinese currency.
I think the RMB-$ pair will soon be viewed as a single currency, like the Euro, and other currencies will rise and fall against them in equal amounts.
Posted by: monkyboy at Sep 12, 2006 7:42:09 PM
Doesnt that seem to mean that dollar devaluation would be an overall good thing for the US in which case we should push for it at all costs? If you think about what that means, it doesn't even make intuitive sense.
Posted by: Andrew at Sep 13, 2006 1:47:26 PM
monkeyboy,
The RMB/yuan has been effectively pegged to the dollar for a long
time, although wiggling a bit upwards recently. Both have fluctuated
plenty against other currencies, especially the big other two, euro
and yen. In 2000, the euro got almost as low as 80 cents at one point.
It has been up as high as about $1.40 in the last few years, although
bumping around $1.25 right now. The idea that because the dollar
and RMB/yuan are pegged (which they are not officially) they therefore
cannot fluctuate against other currencies is simply dead wrong.
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Sep 13, 2006 2:09:19 PM
Barkley,
I disagree.
Over the last six months, the Euro and the Canadian dollar have fluctuated almost in lockstep against the RMB and the USD:
USD to EUR - http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/USD/EUR/G/180
RMB to EUR - http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/CNY/EUR/G/180
USD to CAD - http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/USD/CAD/G/180
RMB to CAD - http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/CNY/CAD/G/180
It took its time, but I think it's here...two currencies beat as one.
Posted by: monkyboy at Sep 13, 2006 4:20:48 PM
monkeyboy,
That the CAD and euro are currently fluctuating
together is irrelevant. The Japanese yen is
still fluctuating separately.
Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Sep 13, 2006 5:26:20 PM
I predict the yen will join the pack soon, Barkley...in the meantime, there might be some money to be made off the yen.
Wonder what George Soros is trading these days...
Posted by: monkyboy at Sep 13, 2006 5:35:17 PM
This 'asymmetrical effects' idea is nonsense. Even a country that invoices in dollars but doesn't consume US exports receives less value for its dollars because of the dollar's decreased purchasing power after exchange into another foreign currency. Hence the necessity to raise the price in dollars, which in turn causes US consumers to import less, and, in turn, contributes to a reduction in the trade deficit.
The only solution to a trade deficit is a depreciated dollar. This is probably the only solution to a trade deficit in general apart from tariffing. We know that a trade deficit implies a capital surplus. It's about time that exchange rates were managed to eliminate the trade deficit altogether. Paradoxically, rising short rates maintain the dollar at artificially high levels, increase US purchasing power, and, therefore, contribute to the trade deficit. The trade deficit causes foreigners to recycle their dollars into US fixed income, particularly Treasury Notes. Under these conditions, the natural slope of the yield curve is inverted (negative). This is a bad thing as such.
Posted by: robert at Sep 13, 2006 7:31:18 PM
Dollar Continues to Depreciate , 2007 around Six Months it depreciated by 13% against Rupees.
What Makes Dollar Strong?
1. If Dollar continues to depreciate the Foreign Consumers, try to rework their Exports to US or Services,
Which will further increase the Price, in US Domestic Market,,,, Are you ready to Face it Up?
Why Dont US by itself make Jobs, rather than Importing Services and Products in China,India,Mexico. If they
manufacture things here itself rather than going to either China, Japan or Korea. ?,
Dont Say US Labour Cost is More. For Example,
One Small Company XXXX manufactures Pen in YYYY Country Costs 5$ Now in US Market
, Suppose If dollar deprecaties further like 5%,either then if the XXXX Company keeps the same margin of profit means then needs to increase its price 5%. else Its Operating Margin is going to the ZZ-5%. So,
If we can produce sam here With lesser costs using technology and Power in a Smart way, with some
what lesser costs then US is Earning a Money, It Creates Job, Its Now Not depends on YYY Country.
So that Partcular 5$ for that Pen will not go to the County YYY FOREX Reservation. So Infaltion Stops in US.
US Ready to Face Up Low Cost Worker...? Operational Efficient offices, More Job Opportunities..
It Depends upon the comfort level of People.
This is the right time to create More Jobs and Gain More...Invent More and Innovate. The Point is
Reached Wake US Economy.........
Compete Globally, Make Global People interests in US Product, Deliver them in Cheap cost????
Posted by: Raveenkumar at Jul 21, 2007 7:55:04 PM
I have little knowledge of economics.
Posted by: Stanford Briggs at Mar 6, 2008 12:28:13 PM
Replica Gucci Jewelry
Gucci Replica Jewelry
Tiffany Jewelry
Replica Tiffany Jewelry
Posted by: aion kina at Mar 20, 2009 9:34:28 PM
Mabinogi online gold
Mabinogi money
Mabinogi Gold
cheap Mabinogi gold
buy Mabinogi gold
2moons dil
2moons gold
buy 2moons dil
2moon dil
cheap 2moons dil
Flyff gold
flyff Penya
flyff money
buy flyff penya
cheap flyff penya
cheap flyff gold
aion gold
buy aion gold
cheap aion money
aion money
cheap aion gold
Dofus kamas
buy dofus kamas
cheap kamas
dofus kama
dofus gold
dofus money
Knight Online Gold
Knight Gold
Knight Noah
Knight Online Noah
Posted by: aion at Jul 9, 2009 3:25:39 AM