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3. Avian flu: follow the trend, not the media cycle.
4. Innocence, by Robin Hanson: "So many questions. Inquiring minds want to know. Innocent minds might not want to know."
Posted by Tyler Cowen on September 11, 2006 at 01:09 PM in Web/Tech | Permalink
Comments
As I blogged yesterday, prediction markets say the avian flu trend is for the better. In March, markets said there was a 60% the flu would arrive within six months; today it's 30%. I'll trust the markets before I'll trust a "progressive" blogger citing a couple of statistics.
Posted by: Jason Briggeman at Sep 11, 2006 1:39:11 PM
^ chance
Posted by: Jason Briggeman at Sep 11, 2006 1:39:59 PM
Do note those markets are for avian flu arriving in the US, which would in any case be a likely non-event. I don't know of a market in the chance of a significant mutation.
Posted by: Tyler Cowen at Sep 11, 2006 1:45:43 PM
Do Robin's comments on innocence versus insight imply that the innately
optimistic (assuming optimism can be innate) will lean more towards insight and the
innately pessimistic will lean more towards innocence as they seek to maximize
happiness?
Posted by: Bonnie at Sep 11, 2006 1:46:31 PM
you can only apply innocent to the one that can be guilty, not like today happens so often: innocent babies, innocent animals, etc.
Posted by: ortega at Sep 11, 2006 1:54:53 PM
You might also be interested in this article on neuroeconomics in the current New Yorker:
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060918fa_fact
Posted by: Pienso at Sep 11, 2006 2:04:55 PM
Jason - even if the chances of flu soon are down, the chances of flu over the longer run may be high. I wish we have longer term markets on such things.
Bonnie - if insight is used to signal ability, then the able will choose more insight, as well as being more optimisitic.
Ortega, check out a dictionary - the word "innocent" applies more widely than you realize.
Posted by: Robin Hanson at Sep 11, 2006 3:09:54 PM
To date, selling "extreme mortality" risk, i.e. the tail of life insurance losses resulting from dire expectations of avian flu, has been nicely profitable. The media cycle will likely recur with flu season. There are institutional market contracts going out at least to 2010 on this risk that I know of. They aren't too liquid, and have been prone to bounce around more owing to market and counterparty risk issues than the underlying risks.
Posted by: mkl at Sep 11, 2006 4:40:22 PM
Good points, Tyler and Robin...though, in the long run, I expect we'll all have the flu. :O
Posted by: Jason Briggeman at Sep 11, 2006 5:37:02 PM
Robin,
If you did choose to reduce your innocence further by having sex with animals, which animal would you choose?
If you make love to your dog, would you still be innocent relative to someone who has had sex with a giraffe?
Posted by: Chairman Mao at Sep 11, 2006 10:54:45 PM
ortega: no, it's the contrary
1 a : free from guilt or sin especially through lack of knowledge of evil
b : harmless in effect or intention ;
c : free from legal guilt or fault;
2 a : lacking or reflecting a lack of sophistication, guile, or self-consciousness
b : IGNORANT ; also : UNAWARE
3 : lacking or deprived of something
BTW, some people think that innocent people have a right not to know things that would violate their innocence. It's hard to agree with this view in some instances, because while the individual concerned might be happy to keep their innocence, the society as a whole may suffer. A prominent case is knowledge about real (not TV-show) politics.
Posted by: A Tykhyy at Sep 12, 2006 1:57:03 AM
e.g., this article [1].
I think it truly revolting that someone could honestly write such stuff.
Posted by: A Tykhyy at Sep 12, 2006 2:00:05 AM
Chairman Mao, is it part of the nature of innocence not to have or want opinions on such things.
Posted by: Robin Hanson at Sep 12, 2006 8:31:45 AM
How does one know why the diagnoses of Avian Influenza have risen? In 2003, there were only 4 cases of Bird Flu on the entire planet? I would be more inclined to specify that there were only 4 diagnosed cases of Avian Influenza in 2003.
Maybe health workers in Indonesia only started sending off samples to be tested for in 2005 and really ramped it up this year. Why does there seem to be a spike in diagnoses in one location then diagnoses disappear?
There definitely seems to be a geographical nature to the flare ups.. so.. either there are flu birds showing up near Vietnam/Indonesia or around Egypt/Turkey/Azerbaijan spreading the disease then dropping dead. OR Clinics are opening or technology arriving in these areas to allow for testing at particular moments to illuminate cases of Avian Influenza that already exist.
Anyhow, that's probably not the case. Also, I find it strange that people seem to think that we'll be able to contain an epidemic if one actually occurs.
Posted by: eli at Sep 12, 2006 11:56:48 AM
no return to forever? that makes the list entirely suspect.
Posted by: dj superflat at Sep 12, 2006 12:23:29 PM
I can't say I like Bad Plus that much, but they sure seem to have great taste in music. That they left Return to Forever off the list is further evidence of that.
Posted by: Bill at Sep 12, 2006 8:04:40 PM
Robin,
To experiment with new things, and challenge convention is bold, daring and often wise.
However, sometimes there is a fine line between rejecting the innocence that is more akin to ignorance and overruling a human instinct to avoid ventures that we’ve been programmed by evolution to avoid.
Bestiality may not enlighten you as much as it may traumatize you.
To make progress we have to build on what we know and that includes not only what we have learned in our lifetime but also what we have inherited though our genes.
Posted by: Chairman Mao at Sep 12, 2006 8:11:39 PM
PS: To reject discussion on such matters would be foolishly innocent; in other words ignorant.
Posted by: Chairman Mao at Sep 12, 2006 8:14:21 PM
What is the value of insight or innocence then in terms of increasing
personal bliss?
I believe the value of innocence is to maintain harmony. To keep things as
they are. "I already know enough" is the slogan. I already know enough
about who I am and how I relate to the universe.
One benefit of this stance is that the individual remains integrated within his
culture (from his group of friends all the way up to society as a
whole.) The motivation for this is an overwhelming innate desire to belong.
I believe we all have a tendancy toward innocence within us.
I believe the value of insight is to evolve. Insight connects, unites and
integrates existing concepts and patterns of existence. In this way,
insight guarantees rich rewards: a simplification of reality. It can also
however, cause havoc as it may render existing ideas and patterns obsolete.
This may objectively be seen as good but subjectively not good since it is
'safer' to maintain harmony (ignorance)
I believe we all have a tendancy toward seeking insight within us.
Innocence(ignorance), at one end of the spectrum, is bliss
as they say. But enlightenment, at the opposite end of the spectrum, is also bliss. The trouble is, you are stuck in the middle and can never fully reach either end. You will never have enough insight that you will have a complete concept of reality(enlightenment) but you will always have an innate desire for insight rendering you eternally dissatisfied with ignorance.
In conclusion then, it seems that bliss is unreachable. Like chasing the horizon.
Clearly, if you have read this far you are showing a desire for insight no?
Perhaps you could sense into yourself and notice what is driving that desire. Perhaps you could also sense the parts of you that just want to collapse into ignorance and just go look at some porn.
Posted by: plut0nium at Aug 25, 2007 4:57:46 PM
