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If you're not so smart, why are you so rich?

Andrew Samwick asked a very good question last week: if Paul Krugman says that rising wages at the top are due to nasty Republican policies and not due to rising returns to education/skill how does he explain his own high income?  Unfortunately Mark Thoma interpreted Samwick to be saying that Krugman was hypocritical.  That, however, was not the point at all.

The point is that Krugman is a very good example of someone in the top 1% of income - someone whose earnings have increased tremendously in the 1980s and 1990s thus generating much income inequality.  Krugman wants to say that earnings in the top 1% have gone up because of a reduction in the minimum wage or fewer labor unions.  Huh?  Remember, it's not just inequality that has increased it's absolute earnings at the top - where are these earnings coming from?

The idea that reductions in the bottom generate big earnings at the top reminds me of the theory, once popular among theorists of development, that the way to get rich is to steal from poor people.  At best what you can get from lower labor earnings at the bottom is a slightly higher return to capital in general - not a big return to a few people at the top.

Krugman says it's Republican policies that are generating inequality  Or does he?  Let's go to the tape.  Here's what Krugman had to say when it was revealed that Enron paid him $50,000 for a speaking engagement.

My critics seem to think that there was something odd about Enron's willingness to pay a mere college professor that much money. But such sums are not unusual for academic economists whose expertise is relevant to current events...

Remember that this was 1999: Asia was in crisis, the world was a mess. And justifiably or not, I was regarded as an authority on that mess. I invented currency crises as an academic field, way back in 1979; anyone who wants a sense of my academic credentials should look at the Handbook of International Economics, vol. 3, and check the index....

And I wasn't an ivory-tower academic. In 1994 I had published an article... in August 1998 I had advocated temporary capital controls ...in 1998 I had taken on the Japanese situation, with a series of papers...

I mention all this not as a matter of self-puffery, but to point out that I was not an unknown college professor. On the contrary, I was a hot property, very much in demand as a speaker to business audiences: I was routinely offered as much as $50,000 to speak to investment banks and consulting firms. They thought I might tell them something useful. For what it's worth, Citibank officials said - you can check it out with a Nexis search - that a heads-up I gave them in 1996 about the risks of an Asian currency crisis saved them hundreds of millions of dollars.

Now all this is amusing but that's not my point (really, it's just a side-benefit.)  My point is that Krugman's earlier explanation for his high income was all about the rising return to education ("Look at all my papers!")  I would supplement this basic story with a greater winner-take-all market, more economies of scope etc.  (See also Tyler's comments.)   

I think Krugman's earlier explanation for his own income is mostly correct.  Where Krugman and I apparently disagree is that I think that the very same explanation Krugman gives for his income also explains why other people in the top 1% are earning more.  Krugman, however, no longer wants to talk about education and skill he wants to talk about nasty Republicans.

So let me rephrase Samwick's question.  Paul, If you're not so smart, why are you so rich?

Posted by Alex Tabarrok on August 23, 2006 at 07:14 AM in Economics | Permalink

Comments

Alex,

Its simply because of you "stupids" chosing yet another "stupid" as the president.

I thought this Paul Krugman debate was over and you start here again as if Paul Krugman is the most insane
economist on earth. Guys, give him some levity.

Posted by: Dr. Dan at Aug 23, 2006 8:28:21 AM

All the focus on Krugman's personal income is juvenile. It's as irrelevant to the points he makes in his article as the personal income of any random high-income individual. Concentrating on Krugman's own situation borders on the ad hominem.

Alex makes the point that he thinks Krugman's case is representative rather than atypical (2nd last paragraph). *That* is the crux of the issue. But, unlike Krugman, you don't back up your position with any evidence whatsoever. This post is facile, petty and vacuous.

An example of the pettiness: "Now all of this is amusing"? Come on - it's the truth! There's no need for your sniggering and mockery in the face of a valid point.

Posted by: Durden at Aug 23, 2006 8:31:36 AM

Alex, I think one part of the answer to the question lies in this sentence: "At best what you can get from lower labor earnings at the bottom is a slightly higher return to capital in general - not a big return to a few people at the top."

You're assuming, without argument, that this is true. But it's not necessarily so, either in a theoretical or empirical sense. If we assume that, as in the U.S., the returns to capita l and labor are relatively fixed (at least they have been relatively stable for eighty yeras or so, with a slight widening of the gap in the last few years), then one important question becomes how does the portion of corporate revenue that goes to labor get divided? It's clear that in the last two decades a significantly larger sum of corporate revenue has gone to people at the top of the workforce (and especially to people at the very top of the workforce), rather than to peopla t t the bottom, middle, and upper middle part of the workforce. If that shift has been driven, in part, by policy -- even if only insofar as policy shapes norms -- then there may be something to what Krugman has said.

Posted by: William Goodwin at Aug 23, 2006 9:05:33 AM

Right now Krugman is rich because of celebrity. There are damn few famous academics and Paul Krugamn is one of them. That he is smart is sort ofincidental. It is really hard to tell whether technology is the cause for rising inequity, because whatever is left over in a model is called technology. So I have no clue whether it is politics, technology, orsociology behind rising inequity. What I do know is that Paul Krugman is rich for more or less the same reason as Britney Spears and his education factors in onlyincidentally.

Posted by: Michael F at Aug 23, 2006 9:36:34 AM

College professors average pay is around $80,000 but 5% make more than $567,000. Krugman was one of these, but I can't help but wonder why. I doubt it is because they are better educated or even know more. I am sure the Fed had economists that could have given a heads up about the Asian currency crisis. Krugman's hypocrisy is not unusual; it is human nature to be self serving. But this does not address the question he raises (publicizes) about the growing income inequality in the US. Given the number of studies on the measurement and causes that have been done, even Forbes Magazine, it clear he did not discover the problem. I do consider it a problem because I don’t see how you can have a stable free society with an income distribution that looks like a banana republic. How much of the anti-immigration anti-trade movement is being fueled by the stagnate wages? Some South American countries had GDP per capita near the US’s in the 1920,s and look where they are now. The idea that it is the product of having a republican president is not supported by the data. To the extent that government policy is responsible the increasing importance of lobbyist in crafting laws seems a more likely culprit.

Posted by: joan at Aug 23, 2006 9:38:24 AM

An obvious corollary of the wealthy doing well (whatever the reason) is that those who provide services to the wealthy will do well. Why would it invalidate the thesis that top corporate management has been able to capture almost all the productivity gains of the past two decades because of political power, if they choose to spend it on lectures from top economists rather than golf club memberships? The executives of these corporations obviously had lots of money to throw around rather than having to give it to the workers or invest it in productive capital. That they chose to give some of it to an economist for a talk rather than a golf pro for a lesson, doesn't change the fact that the top executives were able to spend money for their own edification.

Posted by: jon at Aug 23, 2006 9:41:28 AM

If I remember correctly, income inequality grew rapidly during Clinton's term - perhaps more than under Bush's. So the conclusion I should draw is that both Republican and Democrat policies cause income inequality? Just maybe, some other forces are at play.

Posted by: Mcwop at Aug 23, 2006 9:47:47 AM

joan,

I seriously question your claim that "5% of acadamics make over
$567,000 per year." Where on earth did you get such a figure.
That is a high number even for a major university president, and
they are the top of the heap salarywise. There are at most a
handful of salaries plus compensation in academia that beat that
number in the entire US.

Now there is a small handful who have made it either by writing
a very successful textbook or big time consulting. Krugman has
scored in both of those areas, and I would guess his income may
well be above that number you cite. But I suspect that you are
off by at least one order of magnitude.

Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Aug 23, 2006 9:51:11 AM

Kevin Drum has some charts on income inequality in his post here: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_08/009382.php

Apparently you recall incorrectly, Mcwop.

Posted by: don Hosek at Aug 23, 2006 10:03:31 AM

Re Barkley Rosser
The number suprised me too. That is why I mentioned it. Maybe someone here can explain.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bestjobs/snapshots/2.htm

Posted by: joan at Aug 23, 2006 10:15:36 AM

I don't see how Alex's point deals with the issue at all: Krugman wouldn't deny that there are high returns to education. His point is simply that income inequalities rise during Republican administrations and fall during Democratic ones (see here Krugman's colleague Larry Bartels' paper on this: http://www.princeton.edu/~bartels/income.pdf).

Posted by: Zaoem at Aug 23, 2006 10:16:00 AM

I agree with Durden. I think it's silly to assume that Krugman is typical or representative. I like to read this blog because I hope that I'll learn something. So I've come to expect better here than proof by declaration.

But maybe that's unrealistic since I don't pay to subscribe. Is this a precursor to the migration of insight behind the subscriber firewall? Just a joke. However, I hope you find time to explain why you think Krugman is typical and back it up with data that shows this. I don't think many people dispute the simple notion that education provides added career value, but I'm missing the part where such a dynamic precludes the possibility that the top 1% may be getting richer at the expense of poorer Americans.

Posted by: bk at Aug 23, 2006 10:17:14 AM

sorry - that link doesn't work - use this one and click on college professor
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bestjobs/top50/index.html

Posted by: joan at Aug 23, 2006 10:20:40 AM

This is a re-post of what I said on Brad Delongs website:

The Bartels result may be just showing that in an economy when average incomes are are rising rapidly, the low income groups benefit more than the higher income groups. Since WWII, with the exception of Eisenhower, no Republican was president when the average income was rising rapidly. See plot at

http://www.visualizingeconomics.com/
wp-content/uploads/avg_income_book_big.gif

Posted by: joan at Aug 23, 2006 10:34:49 AM

joan,

Fair enough that a source says this, but I do not believe it, and it appears to be
weakly supported by other numbers there. Thus, the 75th percentile is only at 106,000.
The highest specialty is dean of medicine (believable, although I think presidents
and maybe football coaches might beat them), whose median was about 350,000 and
their 75th percentile is 448,000. I note that the 567,000 figure was listed as
the "potential," and it looks about right for maybe the absolutely highest official
salary in all of academia in the US, but then had that "5% make more" after it in
parentheses. Frankly, I think someone just screwed up on that one.

I can tell you at my mid-size, mid-tier university (James Madison, nearly 17,000
students) the highest salary is the president's, and he only makes 290,000. So,
again, I think somebody screwed up.

Now, it is possible that at Harvard, Princeton (where Krugman is), MIT, and maybe
a couple of other places, there might be 5% making more than that figure out of a
combination of high salaries, book royalties, patents, consulting, and inherited
wealth. But I doubt many places see that, and the number is off by several orders
of magnitude in terms of official salaries. Again, I lay odds the number reported
is the max salary of any academic, but maybe without perks.

Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Aug 23, 2006 12:50:07 PM

There's a difference between income and salary. When I was at Berkeley in the CS department, lots of profs made big bucks as consultants or by starting side businesses, including several that became multimillionaires while on the faculty.

Posted by: Foobarista at Aug 23, 2006 1:06:10 PM

Don,
Not so sure about that, but I guess it depends on how one measures inequality.

http://divisionoflabour.com/archives/000022.php

http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:95_wYl7cZ6oJ:www.commondreams.org/views05/1021-27.htm+gini+index+growth+under+clinton&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=13&client=firefox-a

Posted by: Mcwop at Aug 23, 2006 1:31:40 PM

Barkley et al, consulting and other outside fees are definitely NOT something confined to the top 5% or a few top universities. I was a PhD student at Georgia Tech, and I would say that was the norm, not the exception, for tenured full professors in engineering and computer science to have significant outside consulting, and many have either valuable patents or their own companies. As a grad student, I made 3x my official stipend via outside work, and I'm sure faculty did better. Even if you aren't a notable researcher, you can make a lot of extra money by teaching continuing education classes, which are a rapidly growing business here.

I would agree, though, that outside of law, medicine, and engineering, 5% making > $567K sounds too high to me. It's not off by an order of magnitude, though, unless you really believe that 95% of faculty make < $56K/year.

Posted by: DK at Aug 23, 2006 1:44:59 PM

He saved Citibank hundreds of millions...and they paid him bupkis($50,000?)....what a nice guy! He may be trading on celebrity to some extent but I bet Brittany Spears never takes a percentage like that.

Posted by: Dave Meleney at Aug 23, 2006 2:00:29 PM

DK and Foobarista,

The site in question seems to be referring to official
salaries. I would not be surprised that particularly
within certain faculties, with engineering and computer
science, along with law and medicine being obvious candidates,
there are many places where more than 5% of the faculty are
making more than the cutoff in total income. I also doubt
that the site in question has data on how much faculty
(or administrators) make in total. The publicly available
figures will be the official salaries.

I would also note that presidents in particular, although
also some lower administrators at larger schools, receive
substantial amounts of non-pecuniary benefits, especially
those large presidential mansions. In real terms a lot of
those folks are over that cutoff, but few are in official
salaries, if any.

My remark about order of magnitude was not regarding the
salary cutoff, but the percentage above that cutoff. So,
maybe .05 % or .5%, but not 5%, at least not on official
salaries.

Posted by: Barkley Rosser at Aug 23, 2006 3:37:34 PM

In your post, it looks like you are comparing cross-sectional data with one persons longitudinally-collected data. Isn't this a no-no in economics?

Posted by: GS at Aug 23, 2006 4:37:51 PM

Re: salary data
The source of the data is salary.com which seems to have proprietary survey data.

Posted by: joan at Aug 23, 2006 5:14:48 PM

I'd be glad if Alex could also explain Paris Hilton's income with returns to education.

Posted by: Oskar Shapley at Aug 24, 2006 11:09:43 AM

Here's a hypothesis: we should give a little extra credence to people's views when they used to hold a contrary view but have changed their mind and adopted a new view. Why?. Because we know that their new view has overcome a higher hurdle than your run-of-the-mill everyday opinion. You could argue that this hypothesis has extra force when person's former view is the current orthodox wisdom.

Using this hypothesis, I take Krugman's views on causes of inequality more seriously than I would otherwise.

The data and the stories still have to rule in the end, of course. But the credibility of the source counts when you don't have time to assess everything yourself.

Posted by: David Walker at Aug 29, 2006 11:23:13 PM

knowledge is not the most advantageous attribute in getting rich. Tenacity and character surpass smarts.

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